The Surprising Statistics Behind Flash and Apple

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The Surprising Statistics Behind Flash and Apple

Posted by CmdrTaco on Tuesday September 21, 2010 @10:51AM from the math-is-hard dept.

Barence writes "PC Pro's Tom Arah has dug up some statistics that cast severe doubt over Steve Jobs' assertion that Flash is the technology of the past, and Apple's iOS is the platform of the future. He quibbles with Net Applications' assertion that iOS growth is 'massive,' considering that mobile accounts for only 2.6% of web views, and the iOS share stands at only 1.1%. By comparison, Silverlight penetration now stands at 51% while 97% of web surfers have Flash installed, according to Stat Owl. 'At least when Bill Gates held the web to ransom he had the decency to first establish a dominant position,' Arah claims. 'In Steve Jobs' case, with only 1.1% market share, the would-be emperor isn't even wearing any clothes.'"

34 of 630 comments (clear)

Oh dear... by grub · 2010-09-21 10:53 · Score: 5, Funny

How to we mark an entire story as -1, Flamebait?

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1. Re:Oh dear... by Anonymous Coward · 2010-09-21 10:56 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  How to we mark an entire story as -1, Flamebait?
  I don't know, I suppose the same way we mark you as -1, Fanboy
2. Re:Oh dear... by Monkeedude1212 · 2010-09-21 10:57 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  Change the Posted editor from CmdrTaco to kdawson.
3. Re:Oh dear... by evil9000 · 2010-09-21 11:16 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  I agree.
  Jobs' position is one where key technologies, such as playing video, should be done by the web browser and not held for randsom by 3rd party plugin developers who'se best interest is to put their app on every device out there. Posting articles like this only pushes the debate back afew steps.
  Flash + silverlight = can play video = browser plugins = win for particular corporations with vested interests to win at any cost
  HTML5 (ie iOS, firefox 4) = can play video = html5 inside webbrowser = open standards = win for all
4. Re:Oh dear... by blair1q · 2010-09-21 11:32 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  It doesn't matter.
  They aren't the real kdawson and CmdrTaco any more.
  They've been replaced by a Python script.
  The script cruises the firehose every 25 minutes and takes the top-scoring article no matter how stupid, stale, or binspam it is.
  Every few hours it to the next name in the Poster-bot list, to give the impression that management is keeping the staff levels up.
5. Re:Oh dear... by WeatherGod · 2010-09-21 12:04 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  ah, but we all know that python doesn't exist in the land of slashdot. No, they have been replaced by perl scripts. And nobody can figure out how to make it stop!
6. Re:Oh dear... by wealthychef · 2010-09-21 14:07 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  I don't know, I suppose the same way we mark you as -1, Fanboy
  Thus you make his point for him nicely. There is no way to express an opinion on this subject without pissing people off, and it's mostly due to the tone of this article.
  
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If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by Brannon · 2010-09-21 10:56 · Score: 5, Insightful

How is SJ holding the web at ransom if he is in such a weak position?
1. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by Anonymous Coward · 2010-09-21 11:02 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  How is SJ holding the web at ransom if he is in such a weak position?
  He isn't, SJ is just trying to make it sound like he is able to hold the web ransom and making the same BS claims about Flash in an effort to hold it ransom to his whims. SJ hopes to spout enough lies about Flash so everyone will adopt his version of HTML5 (not the so far agreed upon version since nothing is completely official), and if he can make his version of HTML5 the standard it will give him a lot of power on the web that he wants to use to leverage things like the iOS to his standards to keep more competition out of the game (similar to how IE was the 'standard' in the late 90's and helped lock out others like Netscape with sites "recommending IE only").
2. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by mysidia · 2010-09-21 11:03 · Score: 4, Interesting
  
  He's not holding the web at ransom, he's holding iPhone and iPad users at ransom, because they are the only people this really hurts (or helps).
  Except it's Stevie, so he's not making any compromises.
  There is some merit to his position, by the way, but it may be at Apple's expense (depending on how much $$$ Adobe wants to license Flash)
  It's not a question of how great cool or widespread the Flash technology is in general.... its a question more of cost and how suitable the implementations are available for the iOS devices.
  If most Flash apps won't work anyways, there's no point in allowing a broken framework, instead of pushing the next greatest standard.
  It's risky, but if Flash is not suitable for mobile platforms it WILL be a thing of the past.
  The question I would have is --- why is the article presenting skewed numbers, and including PC and Netbook users?
  Netbook users may be more comparable to iPad users; but it's totally ridiculous to pit PC users against iOS users, and say a technology used on the web for PC users is suitable for mobile browsing
3. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by dgatwood · 2010-09-21 11:42 · Score: 4, Interesting
  
  And the statistic is highly misleading anyway. Saying that 97% of computers can run Flash doesn't tell the whole story.
  First, a lot of us use tools like click2flash that report themselves AS Flash, but are NOT Flash. Why do we do this? Because we got fed up with all the idiotic Flash-based adds that make buzzing sounds at random in background windows and make us jump straight out of our chairs. These people have Flash and put up with it when necessary, but generally avoid it. Those folks are difficult to distinguish from actual Flash "users", yet they suffer a degraded experience on Flash-heavy sites, and are less likely to come back.
  Second, people have Flash largely because it came preinstalled. I don't know of anyone who has actually gone out of their way to install Flash. This means that those statistics could change on a dime.
  Third, it assumes that all people use the web equally. For some sites, iOS-based devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) make up as much as 11% of their traffic by volume. When it comes to ad revenue, the ratings don't matter. The share matters. It doesn't matter if they make up only 1% of the total number of Internet-equipped devices. What matters is their percentage of the traffic.
  Fourth, it ignores the assumption that people buying iPads and iPhones are more likely to have disposable income than people buying a random Windows PC. Thus, for many advertisers, one iPhone user is equivalent to several netbook users. Once you understand that, suddenly even a 1% share becomes much more significant, and a 10% share becomes a showstopper.
  
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4. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by ukyoCE · 2010-09-21 12:19 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  /facepalm
  Are you serious?
  They made a tech demo of pre-release HTML5 and you consider that "trying to take over the interwebs with proprietary Apple-only tech"?
  That is seriously reaching.
5. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by bill_mcgonigle · 2010-09-21 12:43 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  There's no content that I'm missing out on
  Well, *of course* there is. You may not value that content, and that's fine.
  
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6. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by chaboud · 2010-09-21 12:56 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  So there are people who do. Don't fall prey to the single-minority-myth. We're all part of some minority (or minorities, more likely), and it's fair to want options.
  It's as easy as can be to selectively use Flash in Android.
  First it was precision pointer support vs. touch, then it was performance, then it was stability, then it was "Flash sucks," then it was "why would anyone want it?"
  When the arguments keep changing, the arguments just sucked.
7. Re:If iOS is a tiny segment, then why do you care? by Tharsman · 2010-09-21 12:57 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  I'm guessing you missed that whole "HTML5 webpage showcase" that only worked on Safari and many of the functions weren't part of the normal sections of HTML5, and in fact needed OSX parts. These weren't the real HTML5 standards being discussed, but Apples version, right down to the fact it needed OSX to run properly (which happened to be proprietary)
  You mean the HTML5 showcase that I just ran in Google Chrome and worked perfectly fine for the exception of the VR, however this same VR demo runs perfectly fine in the Chrome Canary build, meaning it's something that is indeed in the HTML5 definition.
  Also, you may want to read this from the showcase: The demos below show how the latest version of Apple’s Safari web browser, new Macs, and new Apple mobile devices all support the capabilities of HTML5, CSS3, and JavaScript. Not all browsers offer this support. But soon other modern browsers will take advantage of these same web standards — and the amazing things they enable web designers to do.
  In other words: the whole point was bragging how they incorporated all that defined HTML5 goodness already. I doubt Google added the support to Chrome Canary just because Apple forced them to. Google is much more suborn than that.
100m facebook users are iPhone based by wilsonthecat · 2010-09-21 11:01 · Score: 4, Insightful

I've read a recent statistic that has said that of the 500m Facebook users, 100m visit via the iPhone. So 2% of web views depends entirely on the sites you count, and whether those sites actually make money from their web presence.
1. Re:100m facebook users are iPhone based by Conception · 2010-09-21 11:05 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  Probably more correctly, iphone users use apps and not mobile safari for a lot of normal web tasks. Movies, News, Social Networking, Media, Navagation... these are all done by apps.
2. Re:100m facebook users are iPhone based by compro01 · 2010-09-21 11:13 · Score: 5, Informative
  
  I find that figure remarkable being as there have only been about 50 million iPhones (counting all generations) sold worldwide, according to Apple's quarterly reports.
  
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3. Re:100m facebook users are iPhone based by recoiledsnake · 2010-09-21 12:58 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  Nah, they recanted. http://www.engadget.com/2010/08/26/facebook-actually-there-are-44-million-active-monthly-users-of/
  
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Floppy drives anyone? by ThorGod · 2010-09-21 11:02 · Score: 5, Insightful

Back when Apple stopped shipping floppy drives with their computers just about 99% of 'manufactured' computers shipped with floppy drives. People said Apple was moving too fast. Now, a decade or so later, floppies have gone the way of the dinosaur.
There's probably quite a lot to make that analogy faulty. But I think Apple isn't holding anything randsom. They're just knowingly not supporting (what they see to be) old software.

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1. Re:Floppy drives anyone? by jo_ham · 2010-09-21 11:52 · Score: 5, Informative
  
  The OS has always supported right click, since at least OS 8.6 - just plug in a 2 button mouse, or use control+click. The single button was all about lack of confusion, but it was not "enforced" if you wanted to be able to right click. So, they listened to the feedback way back when OS 8 was the new thing (in 1997) and provided right click for those that wanted it. The only way this could possibly affect Mac sales if if people didn't actually do any research before purchase and just assumed. Perhaps this is why, in 2010, people still think you cannot right click on a Mac (not that you do think that, but I have seen it on slashdot).
  All current Apple mice have right click. They haven't shipped a single button mouse for some time now. The wireless ones are multitouch too.
Adobe has its work cut out by bogaboga · 2010-09-21 11:04 · Score: 4, Interesting

On the other hand, Steve Jobs was right. This is a bigger problem for Adobe. Let them admit thet they need some help wit Flash...maybe Linus hackers can help out.
Bottom line: Flash sucks on Android big time.
1. Re:Adobe has its work cut out by Skuld-Chan · 2010-09-21 12:04 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  Flash on Android is interesting. I think that article really misses the fact that it does in fact work, but some sites are really not designed for touch. I found its pretty fun to watch videos on my phone on sites like escapist.com - you can't do that on IOS, but you can on Android and it does work and its not a battery drain.
  There are in fact examples of HTML 5 based sites that totally fail on the ipod/iphone/ipad/android as well.
Wrong number by funkatron · 2010-09-21 11:06 · Score: 4, Insightful

This:

mobile accounts for only 2.6% of web views, and the iOS share stands at only 1.1%.
is presumably measured over a single set time period and is not a rate of change. It says nothing about this:

iOS growth is "massive"
I have no idea what the ransom bit is on about tho. Troll?

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Re:Oh thank god by nmb3000 · 2010-09-21 11:12 · Score: 5, Insightful

Because Firefox users have no need for flash or Ad blockers do they.
I presume you are implying that the reason people use Flash blocking tools is because all Flash content inherently needs to be blocked. This isn't true.
The overly-prevalent mindset on Slashdot that "Flash is evil", "Flash needs to die", and "Flash is only used for bad things" is just plain wrong and broken. Flash is used in many places to greatly enhance things beyond what browsers are normally capable of. Games are an obvious example, but other applications such as Google Finance and Amazon's song previews are simple but effective examples. As is usually the case, the technology itself isn't really good or bad, but what people do with it can be. And people, as a rule, are decidedly good at making technology do bad things.
This then leaves the question: Why do people block flash? Almost entirely it falls into two categories:
- Flash is used in the most perverse and annoying advertisements that contain video and audio and which load the CPU unnecessarily
- Flash has security concerns
Consider these. People champion HTML5 as some kind of messiah which will bring the end to Flash's evil reign. Okay, what would that result in? I'll give you a hint: HTML5 blockers. Why? Because soon we'll transition to:
- HTML5 is used in the most perverse and annoying advertisements that contain video and audio and which load the CPU unnecessarily
- HTML5 has security concerns
Personally, Flash doesn't really bother me, but that's largely because it can be controlled. I use NoScript, partially to block Flash, and that tamed beast can do useful work. I think most people who yearn for its demise either don't understand that the void Flash leaves behind will be filled with something (at least as "bad" as Flash, if not worse), or they're just mindless zealots regurgitating Jobs' claims.

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Never again by seanonymous · 2010-09-21 11:15 · Score: 4, Funny

"In Steve Jobs' case, with only 1.1% market share, the would-be emperor isn't even wearing any clothes."

Dear Slashdot,
Please do not ever make me picture Steve Jobs naked again.

Thank you.
My numbers are different by zerosomething · 2010-09-21 11:23 · Score: 5, Insightful

The university I work for has over 25 to 30 percent (5000 +) of it's staff using iOS devices. We gathered this info from our Exchange system. Students don't use Exchange so these are mostly well established professors and staff not a bunch of upstart kids. We have reason the believe the percentage of students using iOS is well over 30% if not closer to 50%. It's important to note that if you own an iOS device you also own a computer of some kind. People aren't using one device to access all content and iOS is by far the primary mobile platform if you are talking about small form factor or phones. You just can't produce stats that say otherwise. And yes Android is moving fast up the stats and they don't like Flash on it. Just think of all the Flash adds you are missing.

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Quite a lot of people use meth, too by scromp · 2010-09-21 11:27 · Score: 4, Informative

Flash sucks even on real computers, I don't get why people get so worked up about this. Flash can die in a fire. A *poo* fire.
Re:Lies, damned lies, and web statistics? by keytoe · 2010-09-21 11:31 · Score: 4, Informative

So far I've only seen it in the wild three times: Photosynth, the Feynmann Lectures (posted by MS...), and some random video at MSNBC or similar news site.
You need it for Netflix streaming. I know that's the only reason I have it installed on two of my computers, and that's the only thing it's used for.

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Re:Oh thank god by sexconker · 2010-09-21 11:32 · Score: 4, Insightful

No, no. You have it all wrong.
HTML5 is going to save the internet from bloat and security problems.
Also, with HTML5, videos might play in webages if you have the appropriate codec the site's content was encoded with, and your browser can tap into it properly.
It's just like the tag which worked decades ago, but it's new and therefore magically better.
would-be emporer by nine-times · 2010-09-21 11:56 · Score: 5, Insightful

the would-be emperor isn't even wearing any clothes.
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but it seems like a failed attempt to be clever. "It's like the emperor's new clothes, except this time... HE ISN'T EVEN WEARING ANY CLOTHES!" He's not wearing clothes in the original story.
More like (-1, Redundant) by bill_mcgonigle · 2010-09-21 12:46 · Score: 4, Funny

How to we mark an entire story as -1, Flamebait?
Let's see, Steve Jobs says a technology is complete crap and nobody would ever want to use it. So, that means in a year and a half, Jobs will be having a Flash love-in on stage somewhere.

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Re:Oh thank god by buzzn · 2010-09-21 13:09 · Score: 4, Insightful

Wait, so a programmer who uses a polling loop instead of an event listener is blameless, but Flash is responsible for all of the CPU usage? Puhleez. Flash is just a tool, and can be very efficient when used properly.

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No codecs in common by tepples · 2010-09-21 14:23 · Score: 4, Insightful

Flash + silverlight = can play video = browser plugins = win for particular corporations with vested interests to win at any cost
HTML5 (ie iOS, firefox 4) = can play video = html5 inside webbrowser = open standards = win for all
The "particular corporations with vested interests" being the MPEG-LA members, I take it? There are two kinds of video codecs: those that work in Safari for iOS and don't work in Firefox 4, and those that work in Firefox 4 and don't work in Safari for iOS. Apple has chosen not to implement any permissively licensed audio or video codec in Safari for iOS, not Vorbis, not Theora, and not VP8. How is this any improvement over the QuickTime vs. Windows Media Player war that existed before FLV?