Elo Chess Rating System Topped By Proposed Replacements
databuff writes "About six weeks ago, Slashdot reported a competition to find a chess rating algorithm that performed better than the official Elo rating system. The competition has just reached the halfway mark and the best entries have outperformed Elo by over 8 per cent. The leader is a Portuguese physicist, followed by an Israeli mathematician and then a pair of American computer scientists."
Castle this.
physicist owned a mathematician :D
Interesting... But how does it perform against the Turk?
"Portrugese"? :-)
Did you mean "Portuguese"?
A friend called my on my telephone line and told me out of the blue that the Elo rating system had been bested. I was so stunned I almost turned to stone. I said, "Dude, don't bring me down!". But the news slowly sunk in, and now I can't get it out of my head. But I'll tell you what, the jury is still out. I think there's gonna be a showdown, and then Elo will be back on top.
This is entirely unsurprising. The Elo system was, in a sense, designed to be easily calculable in a time before things like computers or databases or data mining were especially common (after all, it was adopted by US Chess Federation in 1960!), and it hasn't been revised much if at all since then. Of course statisticians using modern methods and number crunching capabilities and huge databases of both game results and game moves are going to be able to beat it by a lot - this isn't like the Netflix prize, where a bunch of teams were competing to improve something that had been in active development up until that very year.
The french computer scientist Remi Coulom, well-known for the pioneering computer go program Crazy Stone, has published some very interesting research on this issue. He claims not only to beat Elo, but also Glicko, Microsoft's TrueSkill and decayed-history approaches.
I was going to see if I could implement his ideas for the competition, since he's not going to participate himself. But it doesn't look like I have time for it.
Here's the paper in case anyone wants to give it a try. I suspect the approach is a bit more solid than the ad-hoc approaches of the quants.
xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
So, how did they rank the entries?
sic transit gloria mundi
The bartender says:
It's PortUGUEse, jesus fucking christ
Now if only we could get games that aren't evenly matched to stop using elo as a skill determiner, since its only design was a differentiator in skill, yet all these games with more variables than skill swear by elo as if its perfect for their matchmaking. (Heres looking at you, games such as WoW, and League of Legends, and many other competative games with developers too lazy to use a truly balanced system.)
http://phelannguyen.blogspot.com/
Well that popped into my head as soon as as I seen Elo in the story headline. And I'm only 30 and 2 days and I actually have one of their 8-track a couple of CD's.
Many rating systems seem to assume transitive dominance structures. If you are playing rock/paper/scissors no rating would be sufficient to predict the outcome of a tournament. Many games (using Batttlenet, true skill..) propably are not interested in finding nontransitive structures since players want to be the best and fans want to know who is the best which is kind of pointless with r/p/s.
Had to be said...
Confusion. It's such a terrible shame.
Confusion. You don't know what you're sayin'.
You've lost your love and you just can't carry on.
You know there's no-one for you to lean on.
To le-ee-an on.
-- ELO
The ELO rating system isn't just used for chess, but many other competitive games (including video games). Therefore, this new 'improvement' may not apply to other games so well, if they've only used chess win/loss data. Sometimes, the simplest formulas are the best/most general.
Even within the ELO system, tweaks can be made, though FIDE still uses the original system for whatever reasons.
Why OpalCalc is the best Windows calc
Is that with the best tech (both machines and math techniques) ELO has only been bested by 8%. You'd think it would be at least in the low 20's. Whether ELO is retained, it's a testament to its genius.
Incidently folks, Chess is only the most well known user of ELO ratings. Many other competitive games make use of them as well.
But notice that a ratings squabble gets prime coverage and Anand's championship win was ignored?
My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
Czech-mate, badabumtish
I could have sworn it said "emo chess". I was going to ask what the goal of the game was, to decide who gets to play black ?
Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
But notice that a ratings squabble gets prime coverage and Anand's championship win was ignored?
Probably because people here have more interest in algorithms than in chess itself?
ELO ?
I didn't know the Electric Light Orchestra was still around
A Saudi Arabia mathematician who insists that Allah will guide his way to victory and a Liberty University physicist who insists that the universe revolves around the earth.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
Is that you, Bruce?
Computer beats world's greatest chess player. Good job. Play Go instead, it's not solved.
Support my political activism on Patreon.
I say use the Soccer Octopus.
If Sagarin would just replace his ELO rating with the eventual winner of this contest. It would be interesting to see how much closer the "ELO replacement" performance is to what he gets from his PREDICTOR method (that takes into account point differentials).
Uh, which championship? Last I can tell he took second to Carlsen in August's Arctic Securities Chess Stars championship in August. Besides that, it shouldn't be newsworthy that the current world champion wins a tournament.....
Qxe4
My point exactly... *The* World Chess Championship - the classical time control match with Topalov.
Our every friendly Wiki Link -
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2010
"Arctic Securities Chess Stars" is, to quote Chessbase,
"This rapid chess tournament is taking place in Kristiansund from Saturday, August 28th to Monday, August 30th 2010. It is a double round robin with four players: Magnus Carlsen, Viswanathan Anand, Judit Polgar and Jon Ludvig Hammer. On Monday there follows the finals between the two leading players, together with the bronze final for third place. Time controls are 20 minutes + 10 seconds increment per move."
http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=6641
So respectfully your remark isn't formally logical. However, I'll give you total leeway for being confused because the chess world has been a mess of "championship tournaments" for about 10 years. But the Arctic Securities was a typical publicity event. World Championships do occasionally fail to take first in alternate time controls like Rapid.
My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
Dude, the world championship ended in May. Why would you expect anyone to post in September about a tournament that ended in May? And even in May the result wasn't very interesting.
Qxe4