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Fifty Meter Asteroid Might Hit Earth In 2098

eldavojohn writes "The Bad Astronomer brings word of an asteroid discovered with a tiny chance of hitting Earth. While it's only 50 meters wide, it could have the impact of a 20 megaton bomb. It's still twenty million miles away so if it hits us, it won't happen until 2098. The real story here is how a remarkable telescope, dubbed Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System, that went operational in May found its first potential target in our growing impact alert system for Earth."

46 of 295 comments (clear)

  1. i'll be dead by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    don't care.. sorry..

    1. Re:i'll be dead by grub · · Score: 4, Funny


      Fuck you. I'll be 133 years old hooked up to machines and tubes.
      I CARE

      --
      Trolling is a art,
    2. Re:i'll be dead by soloport · · Score: 5, Funny

      I CARE TOO This asteroid has been poised for millions of years, ready to strike Earth in 2098, and the story has made it to /. just now? Come on editors!

    3. Re:i'll be dead by Hognoxious · · Score: 3, Funny

      Get off my synthilawn you Dawkindarned thirtynagers!

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    4. Re:i'll be dead by davester666 · · Score: 2, Funny

      And now you'll be forced in front of death panels, which decide when and how you will die, in the name of universal health care coverage.

      Oh wait, I'm channeling the Republican party again.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
  2. Key Words: by Rip+Dick · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "...might... ...tiny chance... ...could... ...if..."

    1. Re:Key Words: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      But if it does hit, it is nearly certain that most of the people alive now won't be alive after the impact. Oh the humanity!

  3. Take action Now! by jdgeorge · · Score: 2, Funny

    First, let's figure out what this "Nature" is and what it wants. Then, let's stop it in its tracks!

  4. Who will save us? by Manos_Of_Fate · · Score: 5, Funny

    We'd better freeze Bruce Willis, just to be sure.

    --
    Isn't enough that I ruined a pony, making a gift for you?
    1. Re:Who will save us? by Antisyzygy · · Score: 4, Funny

      We better freeze the members of Aerosmith as well, otherwise he won't have epic tracks to listen to on his way to the asteroid.

      --
      That brings me to an interesting point, / . is just "the ramblings of socially-inept, technology-literate news-mongers".
    2. Re:Who will save us? by Darth_brooks · · Score: 2, Funny

      shouldn't we just freeze them on general principle? Just to get them out of the music scene once and for all?

      --
      There are some people that if they don't know, you can't tell 'em.
    3. Re:Who will save us? by treeves · · Score: 3, Funny

      I think they're already pretty much frozen, in the 1980s.

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
    4. Re:Who will save us? by Ihmhi · · Score: 2, Funny

      I don't know about that, Aerosmith seems pretty against cryogenics.

      I don't wanna close my eyes
      I don't wanna fall asleep

  5. Re:No problem, send in a driller by AvitarX · · Score: 4, Funny

    Well, Bruce Willis' head in a jar at least.

    --
    Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
  6. Good news!!!!!!!! by GPLDAN · · Score: 2, Funny

    If we launch Rosie O'Donnell into orbit now, her gravitational pull will divert it away! Yay!

    1. Re:Good news!!!!!!!! by Shadow+Wrought · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yeah, but think about all the flooding from the tidal changes!

      --
      If brevity is the soul of wit, then how does one explain Twitter?
  7. Re:Well... by Chowderbags · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Steamboat Willie will still be copyrighted.

  8. And... by WED+Fan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    IPv4 address should run out by then, or not, things will be hotter, or colder, social security may have crashed, or not, the USA will be a socialist nightmare, or not, God will make a sudden appearance, or not, and the Beatles may reunite, or not.

    --
    Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong fix.
    1. Re:And... by masmullin · · Score: 4, Funny

      All you need is brainz! All you need is brainz! All you need is brainz brainz... brainz is all you need.

      when I find myself in times of trouble, mother mary comes to me... and I eat her brainz, its yummy, its yummy.

      yesterday, my mortality was so far away, but i find that I am rotting today. oh i believe in yesterday

  9. Re:How can it destroy the Earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Let's see,

    Take the year 2098... subtract the left wing anti-Christ(43)... subtract the right wing anti-Christ(44)... carry the asteroid(1)...

    2012!!! THE MAYANS WERE RIGHT!!!!

  10. Is it REALLY that bad? by AnonymousClown · · Score: 2, Informative
    BA:

    An impact by something like that is about the same as exploding a 20 megaton bomb.

    So yeah, bad.

    Wiki:

    The largest nuclear weapon ever tested was the "Tsar Bomba" of the Soviet Union at Novaya Zemlya on October 30, 1961, with an estimated yield of around 50 megatons.

    So this impact would be 40% of the Soviet test. How badly did the Soviet test harm the Earth?

    --
    RIP America

    July 4, 1776 - September 11, 2001

    1. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by Drakkenmensch · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, for one thing they never tested in the middle of a heavily populated area, if the stone should choose to fall in a city and not the ocean. A bigger concern would be if said explosion happened in a nation with a paranoid dictator who lets the nukes fly because he thinks he's under attack, cascading into everyone following suit.

    2. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Not much. Kind of a bummer if the asteroid isn't nice enough to land in an uninhabited part of Siberia though.

    3. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by cowscows · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It wouldn't be an extinction level event or anything like that, but it would almost certainly ruin the day of anyone nearby where it did hit. And even if we could get advanced warning of where it would hit and evacuate all the people, if it heads towards a city, that's a lot of property/infrastructure/housing that will be obliterated. So not necessarily catastrophic, but probably not particularly great either.

      Although if we figured out that it was going to hit somewhere basically unpopulated and un-utilized (middle of a desert or something), it could actually be kind of cool. We could probably get some excellent satellite video footage of it.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    4. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by John+Hasler · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That test was an air burst. In any case a nuclear weapon delivers its energy as heat while a meteorite delivers its as kinetic energy so the effects are not going to be the same even when the energy is.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    5. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 2, Informative

      3% of the Earth's surface is urban area, so chances are it won't hit a heavily populated area.

    6. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by Grishnakh · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Depends on where it hits. A single 50 megaton nuclear bomb doesn't really do much to the earth, long term. Obviously, the Soviet bomb hasn't had any lasting environmental impacts worldwide. However, they exploded that bomb near the Arctic Circle in an unpopulated, desolate place. If it had been in the middle of Hawaii, that probably wouldn't be much of a vacation spot now.

      A 20Mt asteroid hitting in the middle of the ocean would be a big and interesting event, but nothing to be too concerned about. However, a 20Mt asteroid hitting in the middle of Washington D.C. would affect human history in a big way (whether for better or worse is debatable; I'd miss the Smithsonian museums personally).

    7. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by wjousts · · Score: 3, Funny

      By 2098 it'll probably be more like 85% of the Earth covered in water. By the coastal city of Denver will be under a tsunami watch just in case.

    8. Re:Is it REALLY that bad? by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 3, Informative

      20MT in the sea? No it really won't do much in the way of tsunamis.

      FTA - "An object a bit smaller than that carved out Meteor Crater in Arizona." So less than 1.5km wide, that'd make a smallish hole in the ocean, but nothing like that feared landslide from the Azores.

  11. Re:You gotta love this guy. by gmuslera · · Score: 2, Insightful

    How you measure the unknown? It IS optimist, saying that we now finally have tools to start discovering this kind of threats. Anyway, that we are getting aware that things could get close don't mean that anything will hit us (in last century nothing similar to that size, so odds should be pretty low).

  12. Re:How can it destroy the Earth? by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm eligible for retirement in 2012, so the world as I know it will surely end. Don't know about the rest of you guys, though. More importantley...

    Our calendar ends on Dec 31st of THIS YEAR! WE'RE ALL DOOMED!

  13. Re:Nothing new... by Grishnakh · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's this kind of short-term thinking that will result in the destruction of the human race.

  14. Re:Kinda slow by richdun · · Score: 2, Funny

    Well, I'm guessing it isn't on a direct course for Earth, and is traveling through the solar system on some eccentric orbit around the Sun. Also, once it gets here (if it gets here), it will accelerate both as it gets closer to the Sun's gravity well and as it gets closer to Earth's gravity well (the latter especially as it enters the atmosphere).

    If it is headed directly for Earth, though, like "They're on a direct course for Sector 001," we're in trouble.

  15. Not as impressive as it sounds by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Interesting

    From the summary:

    " While it's only 50 meters wide, it could have the impact of a 20 megaton bomb."

    Which sounds impressive - until you realize just how empty the Earth really is. Across probably 80% of the Earth, a 20 meg explosion will produce few (if any) casualties. Doubly so since that size range is likely to breakup and deposit most of it's energy in the upper atmosphere.
     
    Phil, you've done lots of good stuff, but you're just reaching for the hits and ad impressions with this one.

  16. Big Deal? by Tyler+Durden · · Score: 2, Informative

    Twenty megaton blast? Meh. We've seen worse.

    Of course, I'm sure where it strikes will make a bit of difference.

    --
    Happy people make bad consumers.
  17. A catalyst for world peace by cryfreedomlove · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Today countries all over the world cling to ethnic and religious differences as primary societal foundations. As long as that is true we will have never ending war. This asteroid is a gift of a single unifying foundation for all of humankind to unite around. Working together to deflect this asteroid will diminish those cherished divisions along ethnic and religious lines. Once we are done, the young generations will see no reason to go back to hating each other.

    1. Re:A catalyst for world peace by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Not fair smoking something that good and gloating about it.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:A catalyst for world peace by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It always intrigues me when people say we will have never-ending war. Have you actually looked at the statistics to see what has happened to war in the past three decades, or the past century? The number of wars has dropped dramatically and consistently. I know it is hard sometimes for a person from the US to see this, since it feels like we've become more warlike since the 90s, but if you actually look at the numbers that's more of an illusion.

      As the remaining fighters realize they have more to gain from trade than from fighting, then wars will continue to cease.

      --
      Qxe4
  18. telescoped? by prograde · · Score: 2, Funny

    telescoped [tel-uh-skohp-dee] noun, a process that runs in the background waiting for incoming photons.
    Usage: "here is how a remarkable telescoped ... found its first potential target."

  19. Re:WOLF WOLF WOLF by Preston+Pfarner · · Score: 2, Funny

    Well, if it's a comet, it might be called Wolf-Biederman ...

  20. the odds will only get smaller.... by scharkalvin · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They JUST found this thing. The amount of data available to determine it's orbit isn't enough to know exactly where it is going. HOWEVER when they dig up some old sky photos they will find earlier positions of this thing. The more earlier data points the better they will be able to predict it's path. Usually this means that the odds of an Earth impact will go down. It's happened before with other newly discovered objects.

  21. Re:Rush Limbaugh Might Become U.S. "President" by Hatta · · Score: 2, Insightful

    HW was a weak showman but also a weak leader, so I think that counts. Clinton was always a showman, and quite a good one. W was pure PT Barnum, he actually had people believing that he was a Texas cowboy and not a Connecticut Yankee. "There's a sucker born every minute" is the only way to explain Bush's two terms.

    --
    Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
  22. author shouldn't be reporting on science by frovingslosh · · Score: 3, Informative

    The /. summary reads " It's still twenty million miles away so if it hits us, it won't happen until 2098". This statement seems to imply that because it is 20 million miles away it will take 88 years to get here. That implies a very poor understanding of basic math and science skills. 20 million miles is just not that much in terms of astronomy. The earth is about 93 million miles from the sun, and covers a distance of over 300 million miles each year as it falls around the sun. 20 million miles would not take this rock 88 years to reach us, the real issue is that its orbit and the earth's orbit don't intersect until 2098. Until then the rock may be closer or farther than 20 million miles from us, the 20 million is just a distance it was away from us at one time.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  23. Re:Rush Limbaugh Might Become U.S. "President" by eleuthero · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Can it not be that all politicians are showmen on some level and that when a given politician wins, he's convinced a plurality of voters that he is the best of bad choices (and various other voters that he is a good choice)?

  24. Re:The moral of this story is: by geekoid · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Nobody is panicking, no one is running around with their hands in the air.

    Stop exaggerating to make incorrect predictions.

    |

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  25. Past events and geologic timespans by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I was thinking recently that we were lucky that most of the ecosphere-killing events in our history were astoundingly long ago and that our local space should be pretty clear by now. And then I realized that the dinosaur extinction event that happened 65 million years ago took place when the Earth was about 98.6% as old as it is now. If the Earth was now a day old, the dinosaurs were wiped out at 11:40PM. Suddenly those past catastrophes seemed not as comfortingly ancient.

    --
    Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?