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Rounding the Bases Faster, With Math

Posted by timothy on from the suh-wing-battah-battah-battah dept.

An anonymous reader writes "The fastest route around the bases, mathematicians show, is one that perhaps no major-league ball player has ever run: It swings out a full 18.5 feet from the baseline, nearly forming a full circle. 'I would definitely experiment with it,' says former American Major League Baseball outfielder Doug Glanville, who last played with the Philadelphia Phillies. 'There's no question in my mind that runners could be more efficient.'"

8 of 212 comments (clear)

  1. 1st page of the proof: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    1st page of the proof:
    Consider a spherical runner in a frictionless vacuum.

    1. Re:1st page of the proof: by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Funny

      Consider a spherical runner...

      Baseball players are approaching that these days.
         

      --
      Table-ized A.I.
  2. Re:only if you know you're in-route to a home-run. by martin-boundary · · Score: 5, Funny

    Of course if you're only trying to get to first, a straight line might be advised.

    Huh? You're trying to get to who?

  3. Maybe for a home run... by guyminuslife · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The main reason why they've calculated a circular path is because of the delays that sharp turns introduce. As far as I can tell, this path makes sense if and only if you're trying to run from home to home. If you're going for a single, or a double, or a triple, you'd have different ideal path.

    So even in theory, this doesn't really pan out: nobody in MLB makes it to home-plate on an outfield hit. You could probably come up with more effective routes for doubles and triples, but on the other hand, it's probably hard to tell if you've hit a triple right as you start running. If you make a hit that would be a triple, but follow a route like it's a single and then change your mind as the ball gets played, you'll probably still end up with a single or a double. If you start running for a triple on a base hit that's only really going to get you a single, it could slow you down enough to get you out. I'm more in the hedge-your-bets camp, and I'm betting that, on that basis, this isn't an effective way to go.

    --
    I don't believe in time. It's a grand conspiracy designed to sell watches.
    1. Re:Maybe for a home run... by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 5, Informative

      As far as I can tell, this path makes sense if and only if you're trying to run from home to home. If you're going for a single, or a double, or a triple, you'd have different ideal path.

      As the article notes, the authors are aware of this. They also are aware of the fact that runners seldom adjust to more efficient paths even when they know they've hit doubles, not singles. This was, in fact, the motivation for the study.

      I think you're confusing their point: they're quite clear that they don't think that this helps in reality (at least, not much). It's an exercise in "I wonder..."

  4. Re:Hitting the brakes slows you down. by compro01 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    You can be called out if you stray too far from the base line.

    I cannot find anything in the rules saying that. Only thing I can find at all related is rule 7.08 (a) (1), which only applies if they move away from the base line to avoid being tagged.

    AFAICT, they can run where ever they like as long as they don't interfere with the fielders.

    --
    upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
  5. Re:Hitting the brakes slows you down. by Vegemeister · · Score: 5, Funny

    It is thus obvious that this rule should be repealed, and, furthermore, "Take Me Out to the Ball Game" should be replaced in all occurrences with "Yakety Sax".

  6. Slashdotters talk baseball by guanxi · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This is pretty funny. If we were talking about Halo, we wouldn't see so many naive claims and theories, and so many of them moderated up! Instead of replying to each one, let me clarify a few points:

    A major league batter knows the base he'll likely reach as soon as he knows where the ball will land. Having seen many thousands of hits, he can make a pretty good judgement pretty quickly. I've merely watched the games, and I can tell you well before the ball lands. It's all done without any math or calculations, if you can believe it, just rules of thumb based on experience:
      * Over the center-fielder's head is a triple
      * Reaching the wall elsewhere: a double
      * Doesn't get by the outfielders: a single.

    There are variables from that 'baseline': The defense could make a play on another baserunner, giving the batter the chance to get another base. Fielding mistakes, and sometimes a hard hit, a very fast/slow runner, or a very good/bad arm can make a difference of a base, but it's rare.

    For the other question, I really don't know for sure. Baserunners are regularly outside the baselines, but I've rarely seen a baserunner go that far out unless he was avoiding a tag, taking out a fielder in a double-play, or over-running first base. But they sometimes round bases pretty widely without being called out. The rules are more complicated than they appear and the umps have discretion. I don't know for sure, but I doubt they'd be called out unless they were avoiding a tag or interfering with a fielder. I wouldn't depend on an answer that didn't come from an umpire.

    I'm just a long-time avid baseball fan. I'm surprised I don't see more on /.; baseball depends heavily on a very controlled environment (batter vs pitcher) and is accessible to extensive statistical analysis. For those interested, I recommend Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Think Factory, the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), and the writings of Bill James, the great modern popularizer of the statistical analysis of baseball (I think of him as the Bruce Schneier of baseball -- very insightful, clear analysis). Now, back to your regularly scheduled News for Nerds ...