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Ray Ozzie's Departing Memo a Warning To Microsoft
itwbennett writes "In a parting memo to Microsoft, Ray Ozzie urges Microsoft to 'really, truly, seriously start thinking beyond the PC,' writes blogger Chris Nurney. Nurney suspects that 'Ozzie has been making these points internally for some time,' and that the memo 'could be his way of putting it in the public record.' Some of the memo's juicy bits: 'It's important that all of us do precisely what our competitors and customers will ultimately do: close our eyes and form a realistic picture of what a post-PC world might actually look like, if it were to ever truly occur. ... Today's PCs, phones & pads are just the very beginning; we'll see decades to come of incredible innovation from which will emerge all sorts of "connected companions" that we'll wear, we'll carry, we'll use on our desks & walls and the environment all around us.'"
Do you remember.. Windows Mobile 6? Pocket PC? Yeah, I developed for those platforms, and I can tell you that Microsoft seriously didn't give a shit. I doubt they have changed much since then. When your core product is for PCs, it's hard changing your company's thinking.
Buckle your ROFL belt, we're in for some LOLs.
Frankly I am starting to wonder if Microsoft is going to be the next Curtis Wright.
In 1954 just about every airliner on the planet used their engines. The president of the company said that they could keep making that one engine until the end of time and people would still be buying them.
By 1960 they where no longer a major producer of aircraft engines.
Today they make valves for hydraulic systems.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
That "memo" runs more than 3500 words. If that counts as a typical memo over at Microsoft, I think they've got another problem beyond the one Ozzie's term paper discusses.
#DeleteChrome
It's not the same, though. The point that Ray Ozzie is trying to make is that, at some point, Microsoft needs to stop following the industry and become the one the industry follows again.
Windows Phone 7 is great, but Apple was the one who popularized smart phones as we currently know them. Tablets are coming to the market with Microsoft software on them, but Apple was the one who popularized tablets. For years, before the iPod changed Apple, Apple made ends meet because they had a fervent fan base and catered to them. It didn't hurt Apple that they were always playing catch up because they had total control over their environment. They made money on software and hardware. Microsoft is in the unique position of being a primarily software based company. If sales of Windows plummet, they don't have that kind of closed system like Apple has to keep them chugging along. Additionally, Microsoft is such a huge company at this point, they have to be an industry innovator again or face crumbling apart.
I agree that Microsoft is making waves to change their image. They're the "cool" company (in the US) when it comes to videogame consoles and no one EVER saw that coming. Zune has its diehards (and rightfully so, the Zune HD is terrific hardware). Windows Phone 7 might get its following, that's yet to be seen. And Windows 7 is just a pleasure to use, IMO. But the PC market is shrinking at a rapid pace and the only other market that MS is #1 in right now is videogame consoles...and that's not the cash cow that Windows and Office are.
Microsoft is literally sleeping on the chance to expand the xbox brand and make it the only box you need in your house for entertainment. Xbox SHOULD be the industry leader in iptv right now, but they're not. And that's a crying shame...because our other two players are Google (who's going to eventually throw something free on the table and leave it to a hundred vendors to shape it into a usable product) or Sony (who's going to try to tie everything into purchases and season passes, not true iptv) and I think that Microsoft, as a company that's not tied to advertisement (Google) or owns huge assets of media (Sony) could shape this market in a way that's good for consumers and runs off of hardware that's already existing. It would also secure Microsoft's spot as console leader for generations to come.
Microsoft is sleeping on all sorts of opportunities now. Ray Ozzie, stating this as an insider, is really a doom and gloom statement from an investors standpoint.
Wise men say, "Forgiveness is divine, but never pay full price for late pizza."
As wireless internet access becomes even more robust, the first company that can deliver a solution to keep a user's "state" consistent across all of their devices is going to be the winner. It's a problem that the industry has been working on since the dark days of syncing your contacts up through a USB1 connection to a palm pilot. I imagine it's why Apple is building their enormous data center - they are about to make manual data management a thing of the past. A slick interface could yield some badass results for stepping your data to a network volume if it's unusually large, and then streaming backups during off-peak hours to iBackup or whatever you want to call it. Otherwise, every time you start to edit a doc, the filesystem is intelligently streaming the backup directly to their data center. If your laptop gets nicked, then you log in to your me.com account, destroy the encrypted volume if they connect it to the internet, and grab another laptop and a few hours later you are back up and running.
Computers are going to disappear - your information will be always available from any device with an internet connection. You'll just have a variety of interfaces to it, from your phone, to your media viewer (iPad) to your netbook (I mean MacBook Air, Steve!) and your desktop. They will all sync intelligently, and store larger, non-streamable information locally on SSD drives. Only video creators will be forced to continue managing physical volumes until 4g goes nationwide and uncapped.
It's a good idea, and a fucking bummer that Apple is the only company doing it.
Granted, one's quality of life shouldn't depend on winning concert tickets. But the point stands: Windows Mobile phones (and I've got a pile of them on my shelf) sucked as phones. Even on the speedy-for-its-time HTC Advantage, the phone keyboard lagged. Punch a key, wait, key is highlighted and tone is heard. Repeat. IIRC, every WinMo phone I had did this to some extent.
I don't care if MSFT promises a pony with every Windows Phone 7, crap like that made me swear off WinMo for good.
"LOL WUT?" The smartphone market has run its course? You are kidding, right? Smart phones are going to continue to sell strong as ever. While they may not grow a ton, people have to stop pretending like growth is all that matters. It smacks of wet behind the ears stock investors who have no sense of scale or history.
Smart phones are going to be a huge market until, well, someone figures out something to replace the phone. I haven't even heard of any ideas along those lines much less products. So I think it is safe to say the market has decades, or more, of life.
Also you might notice that in terms of OS the battle has not been won, nor may it ever be won. Symbian didn't win (it was by far the largest), BlackBerry OS didn't win, iOS hasn't won, Android hasn't won. The fight is on going, and it may well go on forever. Given the locked down nature of phones and carriers, there may not be the push for a single platform like there was with PCs. There people wanted software portability, but you don't get that on phones anyhow.
Also you might note that MS is and was in the mobile market. Windows CE smart phones have been around for a long time and while not huge weren't trivial either. This is a (needed) revamp/update, not a new entrance in to a market.
Compare and contrast Ray Ozzie's farewell with that of another recent high-level departure, J. Allard. These men, at the heart of technology for all their adult lives, were in positions of the highest influence at Microsoft. They're obviously both brilliant, and not needing to cash a paycheck. They see a change coming - a huge change - and they want to be a part of it. They don't see that happening while they work in Redmond. So they go. But on the way out they look back at the poor souls they leave behind and they tell them in their farewell: "You too can be a part of this new world. You just have to think different." The door swings shut with a click and the obvious conclusion remains unsaid: "but you won't."
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