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How Allies Used Math Against German Tanks
Pepebuho writes "This an article about how the allies were able to estimate the number of German tanks produced in World War 2 based on the serial numbers of the tanks. Neat! Godwin does not apply."
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Here's the original source... from July 2006.
I don't understand how this gets screwed up every time an actual story about Nazi Germany comes up. Godwin's Law only says that there will be a comparison to Hitler, not merely that he be mentioned.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
Don't be so dismissive. Knowing how many tanks the Germans had in total is related to knowing how many they can marshal in a particular region. Also, part of the allies' goal was to figure out how many tanks the Germans could manufacture. If that number was high, then the Germans could have bolstered an undersupplied and perceived-to-be-weak region.
To be back on track, the math involved is pretty straightforward. For those interested, the Wikipedia article has more information on the subject.
in the 1950s
so they started looking at satellite photos of the Russian bombers
Hmm. Correct theory, but wrong implementation.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
Knowing tank concentration is NOT vastly more important than knowing the rate of tank production.
Adapting to tank concentrations invokes relatively short term planning concerns. This information is needed to help you decide your counter-concentrations. You know what they have and where they have it, and then you move your stuff in response.
But tank production is HUGELY important. You're talking about EXTREMELY complicated logistical problems there. How many tanks are you going to manufacture in response (lag time)? How many bombers are you going to allocate / train for heavy industry attacks (lag time)? Are they making so many that you've got to come up with a replacement for the Ronson Tank (big lag time)?
World War 2 took a long time. Long range planning was super-important. They didn't have computers. Anything that could make the strategic position clearer was very important. The other poster is right: You shouldn't be dismissive. This was a big deal and some geek's idea helped win the war.
The wars in Iraq (which is all but over for the US, good luck with that INA) and Afghanistan are very different from World War Two. If the US had fought Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan with the same disregard for civilian casualties and overwhelming firepower there wouldn't be a problem.
Modern Mindset - Isolate Fallujah, tell the civilians to get out, then go house to house to secure the city with Marines and Army.
World War Two Mindset - Mass on one side of Fallujah, carpet bomb the far side of the city for a couple days, then send infantry in supported by artillery while blowing blocks up, block by block until no one is left to resist. Or, firebomb the city with incendiaries, or bombard with artillery for days before going in, like Casino. Any one that flees, harass with airpower and/or chase down with armored cavalry units
Right now if a shooting war broke out between the United States and today's Germany or today's Japan, it'd be no contest, although Japan has a better military right now, the US would win.
The last time the US really went all out was the ground war to take Kuwait at the end of Desert Storm, and even that was just about 1/3rd of the total air and naval power and about 1/2 of the ground forces. The US military has become much more lethal in the 20 years since Desert Shield started.
Ah, here come the armchair heroes who've played some WWII game and think they know everything. Clearly you're right - I'm lying. Obviously I have massive amounts to gain from lying on Slashdot about my dad's achievements.
Bluntly, you are being daft. Did you not notice the language I couched it in? I'm no WWII expert and don't intend to be one, I'm recounting stories I was told as a kid by my dad. There'll be people who know more than me about this and will correct me - 'lying' doesn't begin to come into it.
Here's my dad guarding Belson, by the way. Picture 1 and Picture 2. They were one of the first forces into the area - please let me know when you've achieved a tenth as much.
Anyway, that link shows my dad to have been in the 11th Armoured Division. It seems you're right - not Berlin, but Lubeck and Neustadt. So yes, turns out I'm inaccurate. But lying? No.
Cheers,
Ian
You're right - Cromwell. Have just looked it up. Mentions the Mk IV used by the 11th Armoured. Thanks again.
Cheers,
Ian
Damm if I know. The account was written by one of guys doing the breaking in, not by one of the analysts.