Slashdot Mirror
Mystery 'Missile' Identified As US Airways Flight 808
sean.peters writes "The mystery missile discussed on Slashdot Tuesday? It was US Airways 808 from Honolulu to Phoenix. An amateur sleuth checked the time against airline schedules, then the following day, checked out a webcam that was trained in the appropriate direction. He found the exact same contrail at the time AWE808 was coming over. The author deals persuasively with a number of objections to his argument."
Deny deny deny. Obfuscate and confuse the issue. Introduce an alternative theory. Have "independent" expert validate alternative theory. Never admit truth. Wait for public to forget incident.
It works all the time.
Doug Richardson, the editor of Jane's Missiles and Rockets, examined the video for the Times of London and said he was left with little doubt.
"It's a solid propellant missile," he told the Times. "You can tell from the efflux [smoke]."
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
I was going to say this would been much easier if the Plane Finder AR iphone and android app wasn't labeled "an aid to terrorists" and removed from app stores, but it looks like you can still get it. There's a web version too at www.planefinder.net
I think one aspect of this story that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that daylight savings time kicked in the previous day. So, let's say this is a regular weekday flight that arrives in Phoenix in the early evening. After the November 7th "fall back" daylight savings time change, this flight, which may have passed over L.A. in bright daylight on Friday November 5th, is now illuminated on Monday November 8th with dramatic dusk lighting, resulting in a very different looking contrail.
I've often seen sky trails that look like that - initially. Then, while continuing to watch, it becomes clear that they're just normal airliner contrails - with the planes often becoming visible as they pass by or overhead.
To me, it's clear that this trail is from over the horizon - spreading as it lingers. Without the advantage of stereo vision (no 3D at that distance), perspective can play interesting tricks.
TFA makes its case by comparing still images of contrails; and the static comparison is compelling. However, Mr. Richardson assessed the motion video of the event.
Watching the video, I was struck by two things: a light source, which could have been either the flame from a solid-fuel rocket or a reflection off the skin of an airliner, and the fact that there was no separation between the object and the contrail. When I watch airliner contrails (way too much free time on my hands), they usually form some distance behind the aircraft and expand over time; they are not so robust immediately behind the aircraft.
I dunno; just sayin'...
Didn't fool me for a second - because it looked pretty much like a contrail and exactly nothing like a rocket launch.
What we have here is a classic case of sensationalism and the power of suggestion and preconceived notions over common sense and stopping to think. The news said it was a missile - and a lot of people became convinced it was a missile rather than asking themselves whether the news was right or not. Even a lot of otherwise intelligent people went along with that conclusion because it agreed with their anti-government/pro-government-conspiracy beliefs.
Experts can get things wrong. Doctors make mistakes all the time, albeit with higher consequences. In anycase, every aviation expert I've talked to said they thought it was a contrail.
Sig it.
A study, written for U.S. Special Operations Command, suggested "clandestinely recruiting or hiring prominent bloggers."
Since the start of the Iraq war, there's been a raucous debate in military circles over how to handle blogs -- and the servicemembers who want to keep them. One faction sees blogs as security risks, and a collective waste of troops' time. The other (which includes top officers, like Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. William Caldwell) considers blogs to be a valuable source of information, and a way for ordinary troops to shape opinions, both at home and abroad.
This 2006 report for the Joint Special Operations University, "Blogs and Military Information Strategy," offers a third approach -- co-opting bloggers, or even putting them on the payroll. "Hiring a block of bloggers to verbally attack a specific person or promote a specific message may be worth considering," write the report's co-authors, James Kinniburgh and Dororthy Denning.
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/03/report-recruit/
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
Fair enough. Definitely enough to get one thinking!
Which I believe, ought to be the point of this. Discarding face-value acceptance of statements about military denials, blogger observations, etc.
It is important to fully understand that every piece of received information - not directly witnessed - is presented through one or more intermediaries. Each of these MEDIAtors comes with a certain bias: conscious, unconscious, benign or malevolent, veracious or mendacious.
Often enough, we reach for the answer that confirms our own bias - without questioning the nature of our biases. This is when I really begin to suspect invocation of "reasonable" explanation or Occam's Razor. These are, too often, means to discard point-of-view that challenge assumptions of bias.
My basic assumption is that the military and intelligence communities in the US are not interested in my understanding of the "truth" as they see it. That they omit and lie as institutional modus operandi, and work at cross purposes to the people of the nation that they are instituted to defend. That has not been effectively countered in this discussion - were there a rocket or just an airliner.
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."