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Woz Says Android Will Dominate
cloudcreator writes "Woz [said] that Android smartphones, not the iPhone, would become dominant, noting that the Google OS is likely to win the race similarly to the way that Windows ultimately dominated the PC world." Update: 11/19 04:54 GMT by T : Apparently, Woz's words were taken slightly out of context.
It's really easy to do that, actually; you set up your project to use the 1.6 libraries, or the 2.1 libraries, or whatever older version you want, and only use the newer ones if they have a feature you need. Take a look at the devkit sometime, it's free.
Gaming will play a measurable role in this. As things stand now, iOS is trouncing Android, as far as gaming is concerned. Pretty much the only leg up that Android has is the fact that there are multiple emulators available directly from the market, with no need to mod your phone in any way to use (don't even have to click the "non-marketplace applications" option.)
Besides that though, iOS is handily beating Android when it comes to gaming. Some developers are finally starting to wake up, and are either porting things over or making things specifically for it. I maintain that until there are more quality games out there for Android, iOS will continue to have a substantial lead.
Note: I'm not implying that gaming alone is the reason for the divide, but it certainly plays a role.
Living With a Nerd
Android needs to insure that it's not difficult to write a single application that will run on every decently modern ( 2 year old) android phone, or else it would give up what is probably its biggest advantage.
No it doesn't. That would certainly help but it's not necessary. If you read the very short article:
However, he then conceded that, "Android phones have more features," and offer more choice for more people. Eventually, he thinks that Android quality, consistency, and user satisfaction will match iOS.
Emphasis mine. You're mostly right about Windows (I think marketing should be mentioned) but Android could fail on 5% of the phones that ship with it and I think it will still be okay if it can match iOS in the above categories. I think everyone knows that two or three years from now Android will be the clear winner. There would have to be earth shattering changes made on either Android or Apple's part in order to shake off course what has been set in motion. Even the market analysts have been saying this.
Let's face it, there's going to be some applications written on Android that demand multitouch support or the screen resolution of a tablet. And they won't work on the vast majority of smartphones that don't offer that kind of thing. That's not a bad thing, it's just the reality of targeting all the devices made by the Open Handset Alliance. That's a lot of devices. That's a lot of choices. They're doing the best they can but at some point you just can't magically give hardware support to a device that doesn't have the hardware. And I think that problem is inseparable from the choices Android wants to give consumers.
My work here is dung.
All that matters is that it's open to third party hardware and third party developers in general.
The three major video game consoles are less open than even an iPhone, yet consoles beat PCs in sales in several genres.
I have owned an iphone 3g, 3gs and an iphone 4.
Recently the attitude from apple, in my opinion has been worse than Microsoft, some may claim otherwise but the 'our way or the highway' and general attitude specifically from Jobs himself in emails to people (on the occassions they leak out) is just awful.
The overall lock in bugged me a little but overall I was generally quite happy with my iphone, the itunes aspect I detested mind you. /selectively/ restore what I want to their BlackBerries - the iphone however is an utter nightmare for anyone with any real technical knowledge and wantign to do something even slightly out of the box. The lack of SMS tone changing (finally here, christ!) was ridiculous.
Every now and then something would bug me, for example - at work when supporting my clients, I can backup and
I also feel the lack buttons is holding the iphone back, despite what 'focus groups' claim about the buttons, you simply end up wasting screen real estate with onscreen buttons. I don't think the iphone needs 12 buttons mind you but even just THREE might be nice on the device - people are dumb but not that dumb.
So anyhow, I decide I might try Android out, I copied a guy at work and purchased a HTC HD2 (Leo) - which is a Windows Mobile 6.5 phone which can have Android hacked on to it if you fiddle about.
I have done so and been most impressed, there's a few small niggly issues some of which may be from using a non native Android phone, some are just design issues but overall I'm substantially more impressed than I expected to be.
There's an app called Appbrain http://www.appbrain.com/ which is kind of like an all in one sync tool, once installed it catalogues all you have installs and ties it to an account (in my case my google sign in) - I can add and remove applications from that website, anywhere in the world and sync entirely over 3g. It handles the updating of apps, it provides a better search interfact than the stock market and feedback too. It's really nice.
Someone showed me http://www.appbrain.com/wallpaper that today and I thought 'oh how cute, it's going to queue up a new background to download next time I open the application and run a sync' - only not, I clicked a button on the website, picked up my phone about 2 seconds later and it had pushed the picture down and set it as my background already. - incredible
I can take a photo of a Qcode (qrcode?) image and it too can queue up the installation of an application just like that.
I can add widgets to the desktop and while many are a complete waste of memory and cpu time, there are some genuinely useful weather / data usage / stock information I can drop on the home screen or a few screens off it.
I can set the tones I like, I can share my device as a wifi access point - the list goes on.
It's not without it's flaws, sadly I don't know if the small niggles I've had have been due to being non native or not but I hope to learn over the coming days. Also the way they handle podcasts boggles my mind, I do really just wish the music app searched in /podcast/ for podcasts /music/ for music and so on - nothing comes close to apples music player unfortunately. Fortunately for me I don't listen to much anyhow.
Email client searching actually works for gmail and the vast majority of my apps are on the device - tweetdeck, email, facebook, rdp clients, shazam, ebay, skype - it's all there and in 4.3" on this model, not 3.5" - honestly at 32, with my eyes - that's a bloody godsend.
We use these things more and more, I think 3.5 is really holding back the iphone, resolution or not (as I said, I own a 4, I know how pretty it is, it's just too small)
I could go on for ages, I'm really pretty happy overall though and the hippy open source fanboy in me says it's only going to get better with time, let's hope I'm right.
I doubt that.
Something like 70+ percent of iPhone4s sold were to existing users.
The iPhone market is pretty close to dried up.
Everyone that wanted one has gotten one by now.
Then you have the people that would jump ship off of AT&Ts crappy network to Verizon.
Those would likely be a lot of existing users.
Apple won't be gaining many new users but shuffling its existing users.
In the US the one carrier option probably did not hurt them very much, everyone that I know with one is actually thinking about jumping ship even if
it comes to Verizon citing the fact that it's 'boring' to them now.
iGadgets are driven by cliques and the desire for an image, and that audience is starting to fade away.
I don't see the kids at the bus stop with white earbuds anymore holding iPods - I am seeing kids with Droids, Zunes and Sansas.
There still are some with iPods but not as many as I used to see.
It's appeal is starting to fade away because in the end people like choice.
The only thing iWidgets have going for them is that on day 400 they behave like they did on day 1... unless Apple manages to botch updates
Hell, even the women I work with jumped off iPhones to Droids - that to me was a sign that things are shifting.
Eventually, Android will be dropped for the next best thing... and I hope that all of this competition leads to greater things down the line
because consumers will all benefit.
The Wii is more like PS2 in terms of graphical ability though, not quite the same league as Xbox 360 and PS3.
PC specs of course keep developing at a phenomenal rate, so it's maybe possible to build an equivalent powered gaming rig for the same price these days, but it definitely wouldn't have been at launch - especially if you also wanted a blu-ray drive in there..
Historically when I was speccing up gaming rigs I used to buy ones that cost around 2-3x as much as a console.
Of course I've just bought an Xbox 360 today, which means I've bought a Wii, PS3 and 360 in the last 3 years, and ended up spending as much as I would have on a gaming PC anyway :p When you add in peripherals too that adds up to quite a bit more than I would have on the PC. But if I'd bought a gaming PC 3 years ago, I'd probably be buying a new one soon, or at least have spent hundreds on upgrades.
which is totally what she said
the iPhone's biggest problem is the fact that most people DO NOT WANT AT&T as a carrier.
I know a lot of peole that have android phones that really like my iPhone4 but say, "Great phone, too bad you are on AT&T"
Honestly, Apple needs to pull the stupid exclusivity with AT&T, it's the #1 thing keeping people from even considering an iPhone.
The #2 is the misconception that it's "expensive" and has an "expensive plan" I run into that a lot and most every one looks at me saying really? when I say the phone is $399 and I pay $89.00 a month for 1400 minutes and unlimited data (Grandfathered! suck it peeps!) but even not grandfathered it's still less than $99.00 a month. Buddy of mine is paying $115.00 a month for his verizon plan with 2gb data.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
As far as I know, manufacturers also need "approval" of some sort in order to use all the Google apps - Maps & Navigation, GMail, EMail, Youtube and so on... Couldn't threatening to withhold those be a decent incentive to keep handsets up to date as well?
Anything but Apple. For phones right now my choice is the new Motorola Droid 2 Global on Verizon. Been out for about a week now and it is absolutely outstanding.
For OS Windows 7 which Microsoft finally got right.
I love how many people argue that the Apple lock-in is what makes them prefer Android over iOS. Ever try to use an Android phone without a GMail account? A Droid from Verizon will not even activate without one. I would much prefer to be locked to my own Mac (Mobile Me is not mandatory) in my own home, than forced to use Google services. Unless I want to use third-party email, calendar, and contact list applications, which likely don't integrate with the OS, vary in quality, and often are a general pain in the port to use.
Michael J.
Root, God, what is difference?
iOS is open provided:
1: You develop on Macs only. Hackintoshes do not count because the BSA comes down hard on people using pirated operating systems for commercial gain. Android code is happily written on Windows, OS X, Linux or BSD.
Apple does not provide iOS development tools for non OS-X computers, correct. Third parties do provide such tools.
2: You have your ducks in a row 100% before submitting the app for approval. If something causes it to be rejected, your app won't be in the new apps list and will have no visibility in Apple's App Store. There is also a delay when getting critical updates out. Your app has a show stopping bug that is causing customers to demand refunds from Apple? Expect to wait 1-2 weeks if not more time before your update gets on the store to fix things. Android, initial app submittal and updates are immediate. In fact, one of the cool things about Android's store is how often and fast devs update their apps. Some devs are *extremely* responsive, and I've seen apps take a suggestion one day, and have it in the app the next.
This is a pro/con. The great thing about Marketplace is any app can get in. The bad thing about Marketplace is any app can get in. The good thing about App Store is not every app can get in. The bad thing about the App Store is not every app can get in. As a user, I have never been in a situation I could not get functionality I needed from the App Store. As a user that is all I care about.
3: I do not need to jailbreak for basic functionality. Say an app crashes and I need the files it is storing. On Android, I can just fire up adb, tar off the files. On iOS, unless I jailbreak and ssh in, all my work would be lost.
Everyone has their own definition of basic functionality. I can't recover data from an encrypted OS Hard drive either. If data is important, back it up in multiple locations, same as it has always been. I haven't jail broken my phone, and I have rarely wished for additional functionality.
4: I have to JB iOS devices in order to get widget functionality. To some, it is ugly, but to others, being able to see weather, a snippet of E-mail, tasks, and maybe the latest FB gossip is a good thing.
Again its a pro/con thing and user preference. Customization is great, until you try to walk someone through something and they've customized beyond the point of being able to follow the same steps. Apple is a "whole picture" company. They make decision based on this. User experience drives repeat business.
5: Android devices don't need to be tied to one single PC. All they really need from a PC is perhaps to have the memory card backed up once in a while, or music copied to the device. iOS devices will not work unless they have a "home" machine that activates them and copies music. Of course, there are third party utilities to help with this... for now. Apple can easily change the connection spec between iTunes and the iPhone to render those products irrelevant in a heartbeat.
iPhones are activated in the store. You never have to plug it into a computer. If you have it shipped to your house, you can go to AT&T store and get it activated. No computer needed.
Of course, jailbreaking is what a lot of people do and as of now is a solution... but there may come a time where the iPhone is so difficult to jailbreak that it does not get Cydia on it until the next model is out.
And you have to jail break android in the US to install a non carrier supported ROM. You trust the carriers to never modify android to the point of removing its openness? They already have. Tethering is not available in carrier supported ROMs without paying for it. Same as iOS.
Linux wins in most places where IT complexity isn't a drawback. It loses in the commercial space where IT complexity is a drawback and UI consistency, simplicity, and ease-of-use are the primary deciding factors. The smart phone space is a commercial space, where, unfortunately for Android, IT complexity is a drawback.
Once the whole "ooooohhhhh...it's an *Android* phone" novelty wears off, carriers will begin madly looking for ways to distinguish their own Android phones from their competitors' Android phones. The results, I suspect, will be similar to what happened in the PC space when Windows became the dominant platform. After Windows dominated, virtually all of the hardware vendors died out because they couldn't differentiate their hardware offerings from their competitors enough to provide a compelling distinction. Anyone who couldn't survive on a high-volume/low-margin business model (read: Dell, HP) eventually went bankrupt or got bought up.
So Android will dominate in terms of raw usage numbers and carriers will begin madly trying to distinguish their offerings and fail. And in ten years the major distinguishing features between phones will have very little to do with Android itself.
Congrats to Google. They're officially on the path to becoming the next Microsoft.