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Cheaters Exposed Analyzing Statistical Anomalies

Hugh Pickens writes "Proctors and teachers can't watch everyone while they take tests — not when some students can text with their phones in their pockets, so with tests increasingly important in education — used to determine graduation, graduate school admission, and — the latest — merit pay and tenure for teachers, Trip Gabriel writes that schools are turning to 'data forensics' to catch cheaters, searching for data anomalies where the chances of random agreement are astronomical. In addition to looking for copying, statisticians hunt for illogical patterns, like test-takers who did better on harder questions than easy ones, a sign of advance knowledge of part of a test or look for unusually large score gains from a previous test by a student or class. Since Caveon Test Security, whose clients have included the College Board, the Law School Admission Council, and more than a dozen states and big city school districts, began working for the state of Mississippi in 2006, cheating has declined about 70 percent, says James Mason, director of the State Department of Education's Office of Student Assessment. 'People know that if you cheat there is an extremely high chance you're going to get caught,' says Mason."

23 of 437 comments (clear)

  1. Headline misleading by fridaynightsmoke · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The headline should be "Cheaters Exposed By Analyzing Statistical Anomalies"? I thought the cheaters themselves were doing the analyzing, to get ahead of the cheat detection.

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    This is a substitute for a clever sig that fits within the maximum number of characters.
    1. Re:Headline misleading by Red+Flayer · · Score: 4, Interesting

      to simply go after cheaters is putting a band-aid over the real problem.

      I disagree. Some portion of students will cheat as long as (in theory):

      [benefit of higher grade] - [cost of honestly achieving higher grade] > {[benefit of cheating] - [cost of cheating]} * [ risk of getting caught cheating] * [value of punishment for cheating].

      The real problem is that people are lazy and want to get the best return for the smallest investment. This cannot be fixed, it is human nature.

      So we tip the equation in favor of not cheating, by either/and

      1. Making the punishment so extreme (expulsion) that even if the risk of getting caught is low, cheating is not a good idea. The problem with this approach is that as the risks of getting caught decrease, people dismiss the risk as zero. This is a known problem with how humans interpret probability and risk dealing with VLNs and VSNs.
      2. Increasing the chance of being caught. This is a problem because of the costs involved, as well as an "arms race" between proctors and students.

      Note that the equation is also affected by the fact that cheating has become easier, and thus cheaper. There is also a factor for personal inhibitions against cheating, but I'm not sure how to fit it into the model.

      PS. sorry for the messy formula.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    2. Re:Headline misleading by Red+Flayer · · Score: 4, Interesting

      that sounds nice and all, but that's not a real world scenario or even close to.

      It's not a scenario, it's a model. Any real-world scenario will fit into that model... and if not, the model, like any other, can be adjusted.

      even if you believe you can detect cheating accurately, the reality will always prove otherwise.

      Well, no shit. That's why there is a factor for risk of getting caught.

      Also, "Severity of the crime" never, ever works. Ever. blowing it out of proportion to act as a deterrent only pisses people off and causes it's own set of problems.

      Are you sure about that? Do you really believe that deterrent punishments have no effect on the likelihood of people to break the rules? Deterrent punishments work, to a certain extent. This is why people who believe they are anonymous or hidden will break rules they'd never break if they thought they'd be held accountable. If the punishment is severe, it may be resented, but it acts a deterrent. Whether the deterrence effect is significant enough to overcome the benefits of the behavior depends on the actual scenario.

      The rest of your post also fits into my model. That online exam? Perfect example... easy to cheat, not likely to get caught... thus, people will cheat as it is less costly than actually doing the work required to honestly get a good grade.

      None of this excuses people from cheating, but it calls into question the same thing again: that maybe a curriculum should be examined, the class should be examined, the teacher should be examined, and the class environment should be examined. Any of those or a combination of could lead to the answer.

      Exactly. If your goal is to reduce cheating, you need to consider the factors that make cheating worthwhile to students... which is described by the equation I wrote out.

      I think we're basically stating the same thing... but approaching it from different angles.

      The main place where I think we differ is that you seem to assign the cause of cheating to the class environment. I assign it to the student, but the decision each student makes is influenced by many factors: their perceived reward from cheating, the punishment for getting caught, the risk of getting caught, etc.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    3. Re:Headline misleading by PCM2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The real problem is that people are lazy and want to get the best return for the smallest investment.

      One man's laziness is another man's efficiency. Take morality and ethics out of the equation and the two are virtually synonymous.

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
  2. This doesn't prove anything by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If I fall into the anomaly category without cheating, I'll be screwed. What can I demonstrate in my defense? Not much. I find it hard to believe they can prove that you cheated without actually video-taping you cheating or something along those lines.

    Anomalies are what they are, data anomalies, nothing more and nothing less.

    1. Re:This doesn't prove anything by Desler · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yes, the anomalies in and of themselves do not prove anything hence why the article says:

      When the anomalies are highly unlikely -- their random occurrence, for example, is greater than one in one million -- Caveon flags the tests for further investigation by school administrators.

    2. Re:This doesn't prove anything by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If I fall into the anomaly category without cheating, I'll be screwed. What can I demonstrate in my defense? Not much.

      But this is good. Kids should learn that in the real world they'll be arbitrarily punished for doing well merely to further the career of the person they're working for.

    3. Re:This doesn't prove anything by Surt · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yet according to Caveon Test Security, I'd be a cheater.

      According to the article, according to Caveon Test Security, you might be a cheater.

      So you'd be investigated. And you'd pass investigation, because you didn't cheat.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    4. Re:This doesn't prove anything by kevinNCSU · · Score: 3, Funny

      A chance of about one in a million means that if you have one million pupils usually one will be flaged without any reason.

      Luckily no single school has either over a million pupils or a deep understanding of statistics so we're safe ;)

    5. Re:This doesn't prove anything by Shadow+of+Eternity · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In a sane and rational world, yes. In a school? The instant the business flags someone the school is going to treat that as the voice of god himself coming down from the heavens to demand blood and expulsion.

      That's not even getting into the blindingly obvious conflict of interest here. Just like turnitin these guys are a business that relies on there always being cheaters to catch, it's in their interest to produce as many "catches" as possible without losing credibility. Hell at least with turnitin you're dealing with something you can prove, with these guys the student literally has no defense.

      It's a witch hunt, pure and simple. If they're not failing they must be cheating somehow, if they are failing obviously they're innocent. No matter what the student is fucked.

      --
      A bullet may have your name on it but splash damage is addressed "To whom it may concern."
    6. Re:This doesn't prove anything by KDN · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I did this type of work back when I was in college (the 1980's), let me share a bit about the process, or at least how we did it. What we did was count up the matching incorrect answers between people. For most people who entered in a number of incorrect answers, the same wrong answer count tended to be low. For those who were copying answers, the matching wrong count was high. However, this by itself was not sufficient to accuse someone of cheating. What we did was give the names to the exam proctors, who during the next exam would either ensure that these people where physically seperated, or who to keep an eye on. Note this was in the 80's, before the common availability of wireless communication. But who to keep an eye on would still work.

      Some observations from the work we did. One: if your going to cheat, cheat off a smart person (duh!). With fewer wrong answers, you blend more into the crowed. Second: this technique would false positive on people who study together. That's why we never used it to accuse someone, but only who to seperate or keep an eye on. In addition, it would give no clue of who was cheating from whom. Three: to counteract this, some professors would give out several slightly different versions of exams. It would be very hard explaining how you got all the right answers for an exam you did not take, but all wrong for the one you did take.

    7. Re:This doesn't prove anything by lgw · · Score: 3, Funny

      At my university is was common for seniors to come to the room where the first freshman physics (or some other hard subject) test we being administered, sit as if taking the test, then get up, turn in a blank test book, and leave after 10 minutes - just to fuck with the freshmen. Ahh, college life.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  3. Sooo... by redemtionboy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...the lesson here is to cheat just barely enough to get by, or to consistently cheat all the way through. A better lock just makes a better lock picker. Not that I'm saying we shouldn't discourage cheating, but the issue is why students want to cheat rather than gain the knowledge. I understand that testing is one of the best ways to gauge knowledge, but we're too focused on testing and no where near focused enough on education. Tests are proven to decrease a students interest in subjects. The solution is to move to more objective based learning where students complete projects or applications showing their knowledge of the material. Obviously testing is easier, but if our goal is education, we need to change.

  4. Wouldn't this require specially designed tests? by khasim · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Gotta love this line:

    David Foster, the chief executive of Caveon, said the company had not published its methods because it was too busy serving clients. But the company's chief statistician is available to explain Caveon's algorithms to any client who is curious.

    Interesting. So their people have time to explain the methods to non-peers ... but not enough time to write them up for peer review.

    1. Re:Wouldn't this require specially designed tests? by StuartHankins · · Score: 4, Informative

      If it doesn't stand up to peer review, or they don't bother to submit it to peer review, then this is likely snake oil. We (the proposed paying client) are not necessarily peers qualified to review their algorithms, but the peer community is. That is how peer review works.

      Are you trying to be disingenuous, or did you really not understand the GP's point? Reading comprehension indeed.

    2. Re:Wouldn't this require specially designed tests? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Reading comprehension FAIL. Caveon is too busy doing work to freely publish their methods, as you say for peer review. However, if you pay them (thus becoming a client), they have someone available to explain it to you.

      Logic FAIL. If there is someone at the company who can take the time to explain the methods to clients (and I mean really explain, not just spout a bunch of buzzwords) then that same person can also take the time to write an article suitable for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

      Also, methodology FAIL. Writing up results for publication is not just something you do when you have time, when you get around to it. In any real research field, it is an integral part of doing the work.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  5. False Positives by Dartz-IRL · · Score: 4, Interesting

    And yet, there will also be false positives.

    I did poorly on one test. Noticing this, I studied hard and greatly improved my grade in the next test. Would this flag up a warning that I'm a cheater?

    Or for that matter, doing better on the 'harder' questions. Perhaps I decided to concentrate on doing those questions because they offered higher marks than the easier questions, or because I had a natural aptitude for some elements. I may have elected to study those materials harder.

    Professors can't rely solely on 'statistical anomalies'. Illogical patterns may well have an explanation that has nothing at all to do with cheating or advanced knowledge of the test. Of course, we all know just how lazy a minority of our lecturers are.... and how likely they'd be to take the word of this agency as gospel.

    --
    So there I was, scribbling down some notes off the PC screen by hand, when I reached for the keyboard and Ctrl-S'd.
    1. Re:False Positives by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That is why they don't automatically assume you are a cheater ... You get flagged and they do a further investigation.

      Being accused of cheating in the academic world is kind of like being accused of a sex crime in the world at large -- the burden of proof is essentially on you to prove your innocence no matter what the law says, it's very difficult to prove you didn't do it, there are people who will go to insane lengths to get you convicted, and even if you're cleared the damage to your reputation is done.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  6. Catching cheaters is missing the point by Somebody+Is+Using+My · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There seems to be an increasing emphasis by schools on "catching cheaters". This seems to be missing the point.

    We send our kids to school not so they can pass tests. I honestly do not care if my kid gets an "A" or an "F" on the test; I care that he actually learns the material. Tests are a tool that educators can use to help them determine if a child is learning the material but passing grades shouldn't be the goal. If students are cheating on tests then you need to look at the reason why. Is the material being presented in a way that is too hard for the child to understand? Is it not being presented in a way that interests the student? If a student is intererested, he will learn. If he learns, then he has no need to cheat.

    Stop spending money on anti-cheating technologies. Spend money on improving the methods of education.

  7. Re:False positives? by Rinikusu · · Score: 4, Informative

    Not even close. As long as the group did the research, the presentation, and the conclusions, a professional editor is only going to clean up grammar, suggest paper flows, etc. When I was in high school and in college, we were ENCOURAGED to get other people to proof-read our papers. If my mom or dad happened to be a professional writer, you damn well better believe I'd ask them to read my paper. Cheating is paying someone to write your paper for you, without doing any research or anything yourself.

    --
    If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
  8. An example of the whole calss cheating. by wfstanle · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I remember an example from my high school days. It was a statistics class and the teacher had three classes of the exact same subject. He would give the same test to all the classes. One would think that the situation was ripe for massive cheating and you would be correct.

    When the first test was given, he purposely allowed the students to take their tests from a pile. Of course, there were more tests taken than there were students in the first class. These purloined tests made their way into the hands of students from the second and third classes who did unusually good on that test. By the way, the first class was composed of the best students. When the test scores were analyzed of course the second and third classes did much better than the first class. When the tests were handed back, everyone noticed that they had unexpectedly bad test scores. Here is what happened.

    For the first class, the teacher lumped their scores in with the other two classes. Of course, this skewed their curve so that they received low marks. For the second and third classes, he did not do this and their average was so high that it was impossible to get a good mark. Their curve was "skewed" also. He then went into length about how he used statistics to teach us a lesson about cheating. He explained that the good students were aware of the cheating and did nothing, as such they were enabling the cheating. The students that distributed the stolen tests actually were damaging their test scores so they lost. The students that used the stolen tests also lost out because to the "skewed" curve. In the teachers words, he "SKEWED" all of us. Needless to say, we were all leery about cheating in his classes after that.

  9. People are too educated by Byzantine · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The elephant in the room is that in American society, people are in general far more educated than they need to be. I have a bachelor's degree, none of the knowledge gained in pursuit of which[1] is of any help to me whatsoever in the course of my daily life, whether personally or professionally. And while I have no data, if the scuttlebutt is to be believed, I am very not alone in this. Furthermore, even a lot of the knowledge I gained in high school has proven completely useless to me[2]: outside of a class, I have never used any mathematics more advanced than the Pythagorean theorem.

    As long as unreasonable academic credentials are required for jobs, though, there will be incentive for people to cheat—that is to say, cheating is not the problem; it's a symptom. Elminate the degree inflation in the job market, and you'll eliminate most of the cheating.

    [1] Aside, possibly, from reading comprehension and writing skills, but those were not developed in college—I tested out of all the required English classes and all but one of the history classes—merely honed.

    [2]The important words here are of course “to me.” I know lots of things which, objectively, are of no utilitarian use in my situation, but which I have sought out the knowledge of simply because it interested me; my enjoyment of them constitutes their usefulness.

  10. Bad news for people with ADHD by seebs · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Many people with ADHD consistently do better at "hard" things than at "easy" things. I'm a pretty decent programmer, I could do calculus (though not always very well) by about 4th grade... and even now I can't do single-digit arithmetic with complete reliability. Assuming that people who show the pattern I will show on basically any test of my ability in any field I work in are "cheating" is a poor tactic at best.

    As a possible indicator, maybe useful. As a definite rule, hell no.

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