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Betelgeuse To Blow Up Soon — Or Not

rubycodez writes "A wave of 2012-related hoopla has hit the internet about the star that makes the 'right shoulder' of Orion the hunter: Betelgeuse. Astronomer Phil Plait once again puts rumors to rest. The star will indeed explode as a type II supernova, and when it does it will be brighter than Venus when viewed from Earth, though not as bright as the full moon. It will be visible in the night sky for weeks, and could be visible in the day sky for a short time. But that event could happen today or 100,000 years from now, or as much as a million years from now. Since Betelgeuse is over 600 light-years away, its violent death will not harm Earth in any way, but will definitely provide a huge bonanza of scientific information about supernovae. As geeks, we can only hope the core of Betelgeuse undergoes catastrophic failure in our lifetime."

37 of 312 comments (clear)

  1. Soon? by RabbitWho · · Score: 4, Informative

    What they're saying is it might have blown up around 600 years ago... or not

    1. Re:Soon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      To you and the other 17 people who have already stated this and who will state this, we know. But we don't mention it, because it's irrelevant. Some of those who state it are just pointing out an interesting fact, which is fine, but to those who are stating it like it changes the story itself, or the importance of the story, or the facts of the story--shut up.

    2. Re:Soon? by justin12345 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I have a serious question about the speed of light, and our ability to determine the relative distance and speeds of stellar objects. I specialized in the arts not the sciences, so maybe one of you physics buffs can help me. Please humor me if these are the dumbest questions in the world.

      How do we actually know that the wave/particle/whatever I see when I glance up at Betelguese is about 600 years old. It seems to me that we would need to know a few things first, before we could calculate that:

      How fast is the Earth moving through space? Not toward or away from Betelguese as in red and blue shifts of that particular star but just how fast are we moving through space in general. Can we look at one part of the sky and see everything red shifted and another part of the sky and see blue shifted and extrapolate the total speed from that (obviously we would need a series of measurements)? Do we know how fast the galaxy is moving, or even the speed that the sun moves around the center of the galaxy? For instance if I'm driving a car east at 60 mph, can we take all those factors, add them together and determine the total speed of me and my car.

      Does that combined speed cause a time dialation effect (even a tiny one) on Earth? I know time and mass becomes distorted as you approach the speed of light, but I've never heard how steep that gradient is or if there is a lower limit. Would a hypothetical stationary cup of water cooled to absolute zero experience time differently then a similar cup boiling at 100 degrees (obviously the difference would be very tiny, but would it be there or is there a cut off)?

      If the universe is expanding in the sense that there is more space between all particles (this was how it was explained to me: that with each passing moment the distance between all particles increases as the fabric of space-time slowly expands) wouldn't the speed of light be slowly increasing (or decreasing) as well. Would a lightyear 600 years ago be the same as it is now?

      I know that the margins of error in determining astrological distance are way larger then any of these factors, and wouldn't effect the "about 600 lightyears away" distance of Betelgeuse. I'm asking more hypothetically. "Are these even factors?" is what I'm asking. What do we know and what don't we?

      It's kinda hard to find the answers short of getting an astrophysics degree, so I'm hoping someone here with one could help me out.

      --
      Cool art gallery, if you're into that sort of thing.
    3. Re:Soon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Relativity says that the photon coming from Betelgeuse experiences no time when it travels those 600 light years. So the travel time is zero. If we see the star explode in 2020 then it would have exploded in 2020.

      IANAP but light does have a travel time: the speed of light is finite. However, the photon does not experience travel time because it's travelling at the speed of light.

    4. Re:Soon? by Kjella · · Score: 4, Informative

      Long story short, our full motion is measured relative to the background radiation. The earth rotates around itself, around the sun, the sun rotates around the milky way and the milky way is moving itself. In total we move about 0.2% of lightspeed, and time dilation is relative to the fraction of c squared so time goes about 0.0004% faster than at rest. Imagine you stuck your finger in still water, the circle it'd make would continue to grow and the wave would go on forever but get thinner and thinner. Same thing with the universe, the distance to the edge keeps increasing but the earth and moon isn't being pulled apart by space "stretching". All this is really on a much grander scale though, in terms of a planet 600 light years ago it's like asking if you can find your way down to the corner store without taking into account that earth is round.

      The difficulty is in trying to get an accurate angle measurement, even taking pictures from both sides of the earth we only get a ~13000 km wide angle which is small when you're trying to see an object ~5000000000000000 km away. For Betelgeuse wikipedia lists the distance as 643 ± 146 ly so the uncertainty is almost 300 ly. If we could travel even a tiny bit in any direction that'd matter on a stellar scale and photograph the sky we'd have much, much, much better estimates on the distances. That said, we can still do a lot more from earth or near earth than we have so far and there's plans for far better telescopes than today, first up probably the James Webb Space Telescope in 2014 or 2015. Also ground based telescopes keep getting larger and better, even though the atmosphere limits them somewhat.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:Soon? by guruevi · · Score: 3, Informative

      I would suggest you to read Einstein's "Relativity: The Special and General Theory". He explains it pretty well. It's available for free from a number of sources as part of Project Gutenberg (free on iTunes Book Store, 0.99 for the Kindle, ...).

      --
      Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
    6. Re:Soon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      I am a physicist (student), but I've never been awesome at astrophysics, so grain of salt with all of this. You raise a bunch of good questions. So first: How do we know how far away Betelgeuse is? Per Wikipedia, estimates of its distance have varied widely over the last hundred years, from ~100ly to ~1000ly, with the current one being ~640ly. We guess stars' distance with a combination of parallax (only good if they're close or really big--Betelgeuse is really big), apparent magnitude (how bright they seem from here), how hot they are, how big they are, what type they are, etc. These are all interrelated: Betelgeuse is a cool star, but puts out a ton of light, so therefore it must be really big, which means it must be ~this far away, etc.

      As for how fast things are going, you can't talk about speed without a reference point. You have to pick a spot to consider as stationary to talk about how fast things are going relative to it. You can talk about the speed of Earth with respect to the sun, the speed of the sun with respect to the galactic center, and the speed of the galaxy with respect to other galaxies, but you can't really about about the speed of Earth through space in general.

      Relativistic effects are present at any velocity, and this is in fact how the speeds of stars in the galaxy are measured relative to each other and to the galactic center. Most stars away from the center and the outer rim of the MWG orbit at about 210-240km/s, so even if you figure stars on opposite sides of the galaxy you have a typical relative star-to-star speed of less than 500 km/s. Time dilation effects for things moving away from one another go as t*sqrt(1-(v/c)^2), which gives you ~t*0.999999 for v=500km/s and c=speed of light. That means that during one second on Planet A, it looks like ~0.999999 seconds pass on Planet B. So--these things are really tiny, and don't matter too much. They're measurable though that we can measure stellar velocities with respect to galactic centers that way, though. Doppler effect equations are here.

      That's inside of galaxies--stars don't move too fast. Galaxies, on the other hand, can be moving really quickly relative to one another. We might see other galaxies moving at 9/10 the speed of light, relative to us.

      In all systems expect for galactic clusters, the forces binding particles together (gravity, electromagnetism, nuclear forces) are strong enough to keep inflation from affecting the distances between particles. So, clusters of galaxies are moving away from one another, but electrons aren't pulling away from protons. Also, while as far as we know the speed of light is constant, inflation is the cause of the redshift in the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation. This is radiation from just ~380,000 years after the Big Bang that has been stretched out from inflation so much that while it originated at ~3000 Kelvin, we see it as ~2.75K Wikipedia.

    7. Re:Soon? by Teancum · · Score: 3, Informative

      How do we actually know that the wave/particle/whatever I see when I glance up at Betelguese is about 600 years old. It seems to me that we would need to know a few things first, before we could calculate that:

      How we know the distance to Betelguese is due to Stellar Parallax and other stellar distance measurement systems that use the parallax as a baseline. This is a system of measurement that is roughly the same what is used for surveying land using a compass and a transit, but applied to astronomical object.

      The point is not that the light is so old but that the star is so far away that based upon our understanding of physics that it would take about 600 years (give or take some.... the number isn't exact) for that light to reach the Earth. Quite literally, Betelguese is "600 light years" or the distance that light takes 600 years to travel at 300,000 km/second before it gets to the Earth. If you prefer to use kilometers, miles, or furlongs for measurement I can do the unit conversion but when dealing with those kind of distances it is much more convenient to stick with either parsecs or lightyears as a distance measurement.

      BTW, Betelguese is actually a "close" star in a broad sense, considering that the nearest stars to the Earth besides the Sun are about 4-5 light years away. It is still far enough away that even stellar parallax is not really working well and needs other ways to measure the distance, but "roughly 600 light years" is a good approximation. The main Wikipedia article goes into more detail specific to this star.

      As for the other factors you are putting into there, the main thing is to point out the Einstein described that the speed of light is constant in all directions from all points of view. In terms of getting into the esoteric philosophical minutiae, you can plow yourself into metaphysics if you want to that is to me more like contemplating the existence of your belly button and what implication it might have if it is missing from your abdomen. Compared to the speed of light and the uncertainty of the measurement of the distance to this star, worrying about minor tweaks that could distort the distance measurement in this fashion is irrational and not worth the effort of refuting or even acknowledging.

    8. Re:Soon? by Ruie · · Score: 4, Informative

      Stellar parallax is usually measured using positions of the earth at different points of the orbit around the sun, which provides a much longer measurement base.

    9. Re:Soon? by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      The difficulty is in trying to get an accurate angle measurement, even taking pictures from both sides of the earth we only get a ~13000 km wide angle which is small when you're trying to see an object ~5000000000000000 km away.

      We don't take pictures from both sides of the Earth - we take pictures from each side of the Earth's orbit. (I.E. six months apart.) Thus the baseline is (roughly) 300,000,000 km, not 13,000 km.

    10. Re:Soon? by Ruie · · Score: 5, Interesting
      All good questions and guesses ! You should go get a Physics Ph.D., it is much fun !

      After the Big Bang occurred the matter was very very hot. So it looked basically like fire. But since entire universe was "on fire" and light has a finite propagation speed we can still see light just reaching us now from very far away places in the universe - Cosmic Microwave Background.

      It has many interesting properties. First, as you point out you can measure our speed relative to it. Secondly, it has a very long wavelength which is due to expansion of the universe - the places farther away are moving away from us.

      The expansion of the universe is actually very very small even on the scales of a solar system or galaxy and starts to matter on the intergalactic scales. It is characterized by Hubble constant= 70 (km/s)/Mpc - for each million parsecs the speed goes up by 70 km/s. For comparison, Earth's orbital speed is 30 km/s and the size of the entire Milky Way (our galaxy) is only 30 thousand parsecs.

      Yes, there is a time dilation effect.

      Btw, speaking of time dilation effect, the scientists at NIST has recently built an atomic clock based on a single Aluminum atom that is so accurate that they can see time dilation from Earth gravitational field. They measured the rate of their clock, than raised the setup and measured a faster rate - clocks slow down in stronger gravitational field and Earth field decreases by a small amount as you get further away from Earth.

    11. Re:Soon? by Ruie · · Score: 2

      There are shadows and sources. The biggest contaminant is caused by the MilkyWay and it is subtracted out. But outside of MilkyWay space is mostly empty.

    12. Re:Soon? by ultranova · · Score: 3, Informative

      Einstein's theories dictate that nothing can go as fast as c.

      Actually, no: they are based on the observation that the speed of light relative to you doesn't change as you accelerate, which of course means that you can never catch it.

      And of course your statement is incorrect anyway, as light is something and goes as fast as c. So do all massless particles, for that matter. So do chances in electromagnetic and gravitational fields.

      Relativity says nothing about faster than c.

      Relativity states that to go faster than c is to travel in time. In other words, things going faster than c will violate causality. That's pretty much up there with point out that something results in perpetual motion engines, as far as strength of refutations go.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    13. Re:Soon? by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      Einstein's theories dictate that nothing can go as fast as c . Relativity says nothing about faster than c.

      You're entire point is basically the distinction between >= and >?

      Tell me, how would an object arrive at a velocity greater than c without either reaching c or undergoing infinite acceleration?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  2. Betelgeuse Betelgeuse Betelgeuse by tverbeek · · Score: 5, Funny

    Just say its name three times and it'll all be under control.

    --
    http://alternatives.rzero.com/
  3. Re:strange future tense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What makes this post so interesting is that you were the first person to say it.

  4. Re:I can see it now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    During a type II supernova most of the iron stays in the core and isn't cast off.

  5. We do? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As geeks, we can only hope the core of Betelgeuse undergoes catastrophic failure in our lifetime.

    I dunno. Betelgeuse staying the way it is suits me pretty good. 1). Orion is the most recognizable constellation there is. It's supposed to be a man with outstretched arms, and well, it looks like one -- with his belt, and the 4 brightest stars. Yeah, they're his shoulders and knees, but so what 2). Betelgeuse is a bight star, and it's noticeably red. So it's a good example of star colors. Right next to Aldebaran, Antares, and Sirius, nearby and also red and blue (blue-white) 3). If it blows tomorrow, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy will soon be confusing. Well, more so. And that's a great geek book. Basically, the only people left out seriously will be kids. But seriously, Betelgeuse, is an important tool for teaching children. Not like there's much we can do about it.

  6. Insurance by chill · · Score: 5, Funny

    The question is, can I make money selling Betelgeuse supernova insurance to the general public?

    --
    Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
  7. Party? by gregor-e · · Score: 5, Funny

    Driving home one evening, someone said we should hold a party for the death of Betelgeuse, and invite Michael Keaton. My girlfriend responded "Why? Because he's a dying star too?"

  8. Re:Relativity anyone? Time sequence is not univers by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2

    Can some physicist explain the relation of this story with Einstein's relativity theory? AFAICS, Einstein tells us that time difference, and even the order in which events take place is not a universal property, but are all tied to an observer. How can we speak about beetlejuice blowing up in 1411 in that light? Would there not be a possible viewpoint in the universe where the nova event would take place much closer to our time?

    Yes. From the viewpoint of an observer passing earth in the direction away from Betelgeuse sufficiently close to light speed, it would be an arbitrary short time between Betelgeuse blowing up and us seeing it (from his view it would also be an arbitrary close distance between earth and Betelgeuse. Also note that in his frame of reference, earth would be flat. :-)

    Or even, "after" we see it?

    No, the time order of causally related events is the same in all frames of reference. The cause always comes before the effect.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  9. Re:Already happened? by DJLuc1d · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There is a mistake in thinking like this. You assume an absolute version of time. Relativity shows us that this is not the case. There is no universal time clock, and since nothing can be transmitted faster than light, not even information (barring crazy stuff like quantum entanglement) - it only matters when we observe it. Like the uncertainty principle, all common thinking tells is is that the atom must have a definite position and velocity - but it doesn't because we can't measure it. Same applies here, we can't measure things until the information reaches us, so that is when it happens.

  10. Re:Relativity anyone? Time sequence is not univers by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2

    Relativity of simultaneity is not about the time when you see it. It's about the time you get after correcting for the finite time the light needed to get to you.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  11. Re:strange future tense by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2

    No, it's exactly our frame of reference where Betelgeuse is 640 light years away, and it is our frame or reference where it might already have happened up to 640 years ago.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  12. Re:What about Ford Perfect? by GreatDrok · · Score: 4, Informative

    I don't know about Ford Perfect, but Ford Prefect may well have an issue with this.

    --
    "I have the attention span of a strobe lit goldfish, please get to the point quickly!"
  13. Re:Already happened? by dsanfte · · Score: 4, Informative

    Calm down, he's obviously talking about his own inertial reference frame. And within his frame, he's correct.

    --
    occultae nullus est respectus musicae - originally a Greek proverb
  14. Re:no damage to earth for at least 640 years by silverspell · · Score: 2

    From TFA: With all this drama happening 640 light-years away in the constellation of Orion

    "With so much drama in the one-OB
    It's kinda hard bein' Betel-g-e-u-s-e
    But I, somehow, some way
    Keep freakin' out the eschatologists like every single day..."

  15. Re:Already happened? by pigwiggle · · Score: 2

    "Like the uncertainty principle, all common thinking tells is is that the atom must have a definite position and velocity - but it doesn't because we can't measure it"

    Wrong. You can't measure it because it doesn't. The UP isn't about your ability to measure something. Consider time/energy uncertainty. The faster an excited state decays, the broader the distribution in energies of emitted photons.

    --
    46 & 2
  16. Re:Already happened? by Shimmer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We can't measure things until the information reaches us, so that is when it happens.

    I think you are misunderstanding relativity, or perhaps just miscommunicating it.

    Example: Some cosmic microwave background radiation from the early universe is just reaching Earth today. That doesn't mean that the universe is young "now".

    My understanding of relativity is that you can still use distance = speed * time to figure out when an event occurred in your reference frame. You just have to give up the notion that everyone else will agree with you.

    --
    The most rabid believers in American Exceptionalism are the exact same people whose policies are destroying it.
  17. Re:Already happened? by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 3, Informative

    You can run a perfectly valid Newtonian clock-syncing algorithm when all parties are moving relative to each other at much less than the speed of light. That's the case here.

    For any speed less than c, you preserve the order of events, and as soon as you say what the distance is, you're committed to talking about a fixed elapsed time because the speed of light is invariant.

    The statements "Betelgeuse is 600 light years away" and "We're seeing it as it was 600 years ago" are equally valid. They're both approximately true for anyone who's moving slowly relative to us and Betelgeuse.

    Someone in a relativistic starship who's racing the light from the supernova will report a shorter time, because she's just behind the light, and will truthfully report a shorter distance, equal to the (invariant) speed of light times the (her frame) measured time.

  18. Re:What about Ford Perfect? by rrohbeck · · Score: 2

    Its home is now Corel. I don't think the supernova will have any effect on it.
    Oh and MS Word sucks in comparison.

  19. Re:Already happened? by LateArthurDent · · Score: 2

    We can't measure things until the information reaches us, so that is when it happens.

    I think you are misunderstanding relativity, or perhaps just miscommunicating it.

    Example: Some cosmic microwave background radiation from the early universe is just reaching Earth today. That doesn't mean that the universe is young "now".

    My understanding of relativity is that you can still use distance = speed * time to figure out when an event occurred in your reference frame. You just have to give up the notion that everyone else will agree with you.

    You misunderstand the grand-parent. What he's saying is that it's senseless to say that Betelgeuse has blown up hundreds of years ago if all the effects from the event can only be felt now. Its light will only reach us now, any (extremely small, imperceptible) gravitational effects would only happen now...if somebody who was closer to the event, and thus noticed it "sooner" tried to warn you about it...you'd only get the message after you've already seen the event yourself.

    For all intents and purposes, you may as well treat the event as having happened the moment you've witnessed it.

  20. Re:Already happened? by Kronon · · Score: 2

    You cannot comment on what actually is. We can only construct models that accurately predict the outcomes of experiments (i.e. measurements). We cannot say that a microscopic system does not possess specific position and momentum. It's just that we have no basis for claiming these properties without the support of measurements.

    You say that the uncertainty principle is not about one's ability to measure something. To what do you think this uncertainty refers?

    Your final sentence also seems a bit backward to me. I would say that the more available states, the faster an excited state will decay, on average (i.e. Fermi's Golden Rule). This can be framed as a probability for observing the system in a state other than the initial state -- the more available states the larger the probability of making this observation on each trial. You can also make an ensemble of trials and assess the average decay time, which also fundamentally relies on what we can measure.

  21. Re:Let's hope that.. by mrsquid0 · · Score: 4, Informative

    It is extremely unlikely that Betelgeuse will produce a gamma-ray burst. The current thinking is that supernovae only produce gamma-ray bursts in stars that have been stripped of their hydrogen envelopes. Betelgeuse still has most of its hydrogen, and there is not enough time to lose it before the supernova is likely to happen. Even if Betelgeuse does produce a gamma-ray burst the bursts occur along the rotation axis of the star, and Betelgeuse's rotation axis is not pointed towards us. Fortunately, we do not have to worry about a gamma-ray burst from Betelgeuse, because it is close enough that such a burst would be rather nasty for us.

    --
    Just because you are paranoid does not mean that no-one is out to get you.
  22. Insensitive by shiftless · · Score: 3, Funny

    As geeks, we can only hope the core of Betelgeuse undergoes catastrophic failure in our lifetime.

    My home plant orbits Betelgeuse, you insensitive clod!

  23. Re:Nearest black hole? by goodmanj · · Score: 2

    I'm not up on this research, but I think it's a little unclear whether Betelgeuse will turn into a black hole. It all depends on how much mass is left behind after it blows off most of its mass during the supernova explosion. To say this is a difficult computational problem is putting it mildly.

    For comparison, the Cygnus X-1 black hole may have come from a star that was originally 40 solar masses in size, while the Crab Nebula's star may have been about 9-11 solar masses. Betelgeuse is about 19 solar masses in size.

    I guess we'll find out!

    But yes, if it did go black hole, it would be the closest one to us.

  24. Re:Already happened? by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

    "things that are not experienced do not exist?"

    Existance is relative.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.