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EA Simulation Correctly Picked Super Bowl Champs in September

Posted by samzenpus on from the miracle-madden dept.

Just_Say_Duhhh writes "Before the NFL Season started, the guys at EA Sports simulated the entire season using Madden 2011. The sim told them the Packers would win the Super Bowl. If only we had listened. What's even more interesting is that according to the article, they've picked the winner 6 of the last 7 years. Make that 7 out of 8!"

6 of 124 comments (clear)

  1. I think Madden is schitzo...... by Immostlyharmless · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Because according to *this* article, it picked the Steelers... http://blog.games.yahoo.com/blog/355-steelers-will-win-super-bowl-xlv-predicts-madden-11/ wtf?

    1. Re:I think Madden is schitzo...... by Tx · · Score: 5, Informative

      Seems like there may be two simulations here, a full-season simulation done before the start of the actual season, and a one-match simulation of the final alone done shortly before the actual final. The former came up with the Packers, the latter picked the Steelers.

      --
      Oh no... it's the future.
    2. Re:I think Madden is schitzo...... by kbg · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I can also predict a winner in the final with 50% accuracy using my new simulation called the "coin".

  2. with enough chances, all coincidences are shallow. by retchdog · · Score: 3, Insightful

    1. run enough independent simulations to predict each team as winning in one of them.
    2. only report the right one
    3. profit!

    protip: replace "team" with "drug," and "winning" with "effective," for supermegaprofit!

    --
    "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
  3. IT for bookies? by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So, do bookmakers use this for their odds calculations?

    Where I grew up, their was an Italian delicatessen. They made great hoagies! It was also run by a couple of famlies, and they all drove Cadillacs. When you went in there, someone was always on the phone. Hmmm. When the racetrack nearby burned down and closed, they closed as well.

    It was reopened by two guys who my parents knew. They said that the phone was constantly ringing from folks wanting to place bets.

    But obviously, they made a tiny fortune on the betting business. So I have to wonder, how do bookies calculate their odds? Do they use IT technology? Or is it just a gut feeling? I'm not a betting man myself, but I don't mind other folks doing it.

    And even if I did know that the delicatessen was a front for a bookmaker operation, I wouldn't have cared. As long as they kept making those hoagies. My tip: If you want to really experience a hoagie, find a mom and pop delicatessen in South Jersey.

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
  4. Re:IT for bookies? by Mechagodzilla · · Score: 4, Informative

    Gut feelings and odds have little to do with it. Bookies try to get enough people to bet on both teams. If too many people were betting on the Packers, they would move the spread so more people bet on the Steelers, and vice versa. They have to balance the money on both sides so they have enough to pay out. Most bookies take a percentage of the bet, or a "vig", so they get paid no matter which side wins. I ran a small operation in high school like this. The house always wins. If a bookie runs into the situation where his cash flow isn't as good as it should be, he usually lets them carry over the bet into the next week. That gets kinda hard with the Super Bowl. just my $0.02 (plus my percentage)

    --
    Fast, cheap, correct. You get to pick two.