Why Nokia Is Toast

CWmike writes "It's hard to remember now, but there was a time when Finland was at the center of the cell phone universe. No more. Nokia is being killed by complexity. Along comes Microsoft with Windows Phone 7, delivering more complexity. My view is that Microsoft doesn't matter, writes Mike Elgan. Although Windows Phone 7 is a way better operating system than Symbian, Nokia's problem isn't Symbian, and the solution isn't Windows Phone 7. Nokia's problem is that it follows the losing strategies of the other losers in the market, and rejects the only two known winning strategies. There are way too many Nokia phones. This causes either choice paralysis, sending buyers screaming to Apple for relief, or buyer's remorse. Nokia should take the advice Steve Jobs gave to Nike CEO Mark Parker: 'Just get rid of the crappy stuff and focus on the good stuff.'" And maybe Nokia isn't toast at all: reader high_rolla points out an interesting bit of speculation that the Nokia-Microsoft pact is part of a grand plan "to become the exclusive manufacturer of hardware for MS phones and tablets."

Comments

m$'s 8th largest individual shareholder is happy

[phonewebcam]

He loves it when a plan comes together

This is way over the top

[DesScorp]

I'd be shocked if Nokia were "toast". They're still one of the biggest handset makers in the world, and their name recognition alone is worth billions in the market. And while guys like Steve Jobs are going "simplify!", there are millions of customers going "Really? This is all you've got? Where are all the choices?". Just because Apple's strategy is good for Apple doesn't mean it'll be good for Nokia, just like Mercedes isn't going to pursue the same strategy as Ford. They're both still going to make a lot of money.

Re:This is way over the top

[SomeKDEUser]

Because they got a stupid North American as a CEO who thinks his home base is the world. Only in NA is Nokia an also-ran. Because nowhere else is it normal to get the phone for "free" with your contract. Contracts which are preposterous in the first place.

Because nowhere else are consumers ignorant enough and regulators lazy enough to allow that. So outside of NA, your iPhone is wayyy too expensive for what it is. Except if you are an asshole yuppie urbanite that is. Only is you care more about your phone looking "cool" (that is bough last month, or so) instead of having really good reception/battery life, will you buy the phones which are popular in NA.

So based on the bizarre, twisted, wrong NA market, the CEO changes a strategy which is _working_ (ovi store is growing tremendously -- well was until Friday -- and Qt allowed development on the entire line of phones). He pisses off his entire dev base hoping to get a new one, presumably. Because replacing a world-class API (Qt) which is truly portable with a WP-only API which can only work on hi-power-low-battery-duration devices is _stupid_. Telling devs "you know those 500 000 000 devices you targeted? They're gone" is not good. And WP phone devs are probably not going to be so eager to replace their just-shafted colleagues... I guess he doesn't even understand why the stock of his company plunged 15% in a day...

Because investors realised that the man knows nothing, and is more than just clueless: he is actively and destructively stupid.

Re:As much as I wanted Nokia to adopt Android...

[UnknowingFool]

Except that Nokia won't be the only WP7 out there. Heck, they are not out there today. Dell, Samsung, LG, and HTC all have WP7 phones today. For some of these companies, they also have Android phones. By the time Nokia has a Windows Phone 7, there may be half a dozen manufacturers with multiple models each. How does that fare for Nokia?

How this deal serves MS... patents?

[Rob Y.]

Could it be that with Nokia dependent on MS for phone software, the biggest holder of smartphone related patents is no longer a threat to Microsoft? Apple and Microsoft have some kind of patent sharing deal, which is good for Microsoft, but does Apple no good against Nokia's phone patents.

And Google's pretty much on their own. Maybe Motorola's got some protection to offer Android, but I personally don't like the idea of an emboldened Microsoft waving bullshit UI patents as a threat to Android with nobody left to countersue.