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Windows Browser Ballot: the Winners and the Losers

Barence writes "It's a year since the Windows browser ballot came into being in Europe — but has it made any difference? PC Pro has surveyed the minor browser makers — who theoretically had the most to gain from the ballot — to find out what impact it's had on their business. The answers are very mixed. One of the 12, FlashPeak SlimBrowser, claims it's resulted in fewer than 200 downloads per day. Others claim it's transformed their business. One thing is for certain: the big boys still dominate."

30 of 134 comments (clear)

  1. I like by Aerorae · · Score: 2

    the slope of that green line. Anyone wanna estimate an (y=mx+b) m for me? :D
    Did note the part about measuring Safari usage by adding in OSX machines when comparing browsers. Statistical reporting at its best. (/sarcasm)

    1. Re:I like by pandrijeczko · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Personally, I think Safari should be lumped in with "Other" because usage of it on Windows is so insignificant.

      --
      Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
  2. That agrees with my figures by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I ran the browser usage by year through a spreadsheet a couple of months ago and found the same thing. The decline in Internet Explorer usage was remarkably consistent over the years. The EU's browser choice appeared to make no difference in the usage deltas for all the browsers. I didn't look at the less used browsers, but I imagine that they would be the true winners because hardly anybody would have heard of the minor players if it weren't for being on this list.

    It just goes to show that the reason that IE got to have so much dominance was not because it was bundled with the operating system, but that for far too long it had no real competition.

    1. Re:That agrees with my figures by kevinmenzel · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And since none of the major browser trends changed with the introduction of the Ballot, it also shows that the entire situation was overblown, and that there was a competitive market in place which was (and is) correcting the mistake of leaving IE uncontested for so long.

    2. Re:That agrees with my figures by oliverthered · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I think it could be described as too late in some ways.... what would have happened if this was in there from the start?
      would it have created a more equal market for competition to develop in. overblown, it's been what 10 years?

      --
      thank God the internet isn't a human right.
    3. Re:That agrees with my figures by kevinmenzel · · Score: 2

      But the point is, that when competition started developing, it started gaining marketshare. There wasn't instant adoption, but the long term trend is for more diversity.

      Also, the point is that this DIDN'T happen 10 years ago, it happened recently, once the market was already on the way to correction, and hasn't been shown to help speed up that process. It also hasn't particularly helped Opera, who were the ones complaining in the first place.

    4. Re:That agrees with my figures by sjames · · Score: 2

      None of the trends reversed, but IE's decline and Chrome's rise accelerated a fair bit. That suggests that being the default was helping IE. It's numbers were falling in spite of that boost.

    5. Re:That agrees with my figures by Hope+Thelps · · Score: 2

      So the main goal of a for-profit company should be to develop an equal marketplace for its competitors?

      I'm not sure that's even a meaningful suggestion - what have the goals of the company got to do with this? However in many jurisdictions it is officially and legally a goal of the government to develop a competitive market. That's why this is a government action.

      I'd agree that politics does distort that and a measure of cyncism is justified, but I think that contrasts with your charming naivety about the workings of the EU - in practice the different member states are all rivals and there is as much, or more, pressure to bring other EU states and their companies into line as there is to create exceptions for them.

      --
      To summarise the summary of the summary: people are a problem. ~ h2g2
    6. Re:That agrees with my figures by icebraining · · Score: 4, Informative

      So the main goal of a for-profit company should be to develop an equal marketplace for its competitors?

      No, the main goal should be to make as much profit as possible without abusing its dominant position on a market by manipulating other markets.

      This was just Europe showing a US company who was boss. If Ikea made Windows, this would never have happened.

      OK, then show us an example where a company in the EU was abusing a dominating position in a market by tying another product to it. Competition law is applied to EU based companies all the time.

      When can we see Apple told how to conduct its business by some fascists?

      By fascists? I have no idea. But the EU already said Apple can't prevent developers from porting the same apps they sell on the Apple Store to other platforms.

    7. Re:That agrees with my figures by bunratty · · Score: 2

      I can't believe that people think that IE renders pages better because IE is better at rendering pages. When IE renders a page better than other browsers, it's because web developers bent over backwards to make sure it works well in IE. Even now, most websites are tested with IE6. Web developers stopped testing their sites with Netscape 6 ages ago. That's why IE6 renders pages better than Netscape 6 today -- not because it's a better browser!

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    8. Re:That agrees with my figures by TheLink · · Score: 2

      Web developers stopped testing their sites with Netscape 6 ages ago.

      Because Netscape 6 was a piece of shit not worth the time it took to download it. And it's not as if Netscape was so great at "web standards compliance" either.

      Fact is 15 years ago netscape 4.x was inferior. It was worse than IE4. Yes IE1 2 and 3 were worse than Netscape 1-3.0, but IE had caught up, and then the Netscape team screwed up...

      Netscape 6, 7 were pieces of bloated shit. If you thought Netscape 4 and IE4 were crap, they were worse. They really really sucked.

      Believe me I was looking for something better than IE after using Netscape from v3 to v4.8, but there just wasn't any thing better for windows[1].

      From IE4 to IE6 (1998 to 2005) tell me which browser was better than IE that ran on windows? Definitely not Netscape/Mozilla. Konqueror didn't run on Windows. Mosaic? Hahaha.

      See: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Timeline_of_web_browsers.svg

      Mozilla Firefox only started getting usable in 2006 by my standards (my standards = crash less than IE). And it took them two more years to reduce those memory issues (I was using a desktop linux machine at work from 2006-2008 and it was common for firefox to use more memory than my vmware virtual machine running Windows XP and IE!).

      I even tried Opera in 2006+ and it was actually slower than Firefox for my usage, and it even leaked lots of memory (yes we can blame it on flash but I'm just going to use what works).

      Just look at how much Google Chrome has caught up in such a short time and you can see the alternative browsers just weren't good enough. Even nongeeks were seeing the difference between Chrome and IE and telling their nongeek friends to use it. Yes I know Chrome was based on Webkit and Webkit was based on Konqueror. But fact is there weren't good enough geniuses working on the "IE alternative" problem back then.

      [1] If anyone thinks I should have switched to Desktop Linux back then, they're either stupid or delusional. Even 10 years later Desktop Linux still hasn't got _basic_ desktop stuff like sound right.

      --
    9. Re:That agrees with my figures by RAMMS+EIN · · Score: 2

      It just goes to show that the reason that IE got to have so much dominance was not because it was bundled with the operating system, but that for far too long it had no real competition.

      I rather think that it means you're looking at the data too late. Of course MSIE was the dominant browser when it didn't have any real competition, but that was after the competition had been killed off. Before that, there was healthy competition between Microsoft Internet Explorer and Netscape Navigator.

      Although it is impossible to say for certain, many believe that MSIE came to have ~90% market share through a combination of being bundled with the operating system and having become good enough that it wasn't worth the trouble to get a different browser. Netscape went under and it would take years for Mozilla to produce something that people would actually prefer over MSIE, but all this time, there had been Opera, who have made a very impressive browser at least since their 3.x days. Why is it that they never managed to sway a large percentage of users? Could it be because Opera, other than Netscape and IE, was never included on ISPs installation disks, included with shareware magazine's distributions, or bundled with operating systems on large scale?

      Recent history also tells some interesting stories. At some point, Microsoft apparently got worried enough about the competition on the browser front that they created an Internet Explorer team again. Yes, they had actually disbanded the IE team after the release of IE 6. So what did the competition have to do to get back in the game? Well, take a look at Firefox, Opera and Safari from around Firefox's 1.0 release, and you will find that they are light years ahead of MSIE 6 - which really isn't all that different from MSIE 5.5. Let's also not forget that Firefox had a stable base on *nix, and Safari on Mac OS X, so they would continue to be improved regardless of adoption by Windows users.

      Does bundling a browser with the operating system (or ISP service) give that browser a huge advantage over the competition? I think it is clear that it does.

      --
      Please correct me if I got my facts wrong.
  3. Link A has more hits than link B by metalmaster · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ....so Link P thinks its unfair that they arent chosen.

    Lets be real here for a moment.....It might have been a bit unfair that MS had a stranglehold on the browser market for those PCs that had Windows pre-installed. Choice is good, and it's great that the EU evened the playing field. But too many choices will confuse the general public

    As a PC support tech, i'd have to argue that average joe consumer wants/needs a browser that will handle everything you throw at it. The top 5 in that list will do just that for the most part or they have a simple add-on scheme that handle's the rest. As internet technologies mature bloat is the way to go. If a customer says to me "my internet wont do this...." its not appropriate for me to say "well, you chose a browser that doesnt have that feature." A company that markets a product as a SlimBrowser sounds like it would put me in that very position.

    If you design a browser with a niche feature set(ie. Bare bones browsing) dont complain when the mass market doesnt choose your product

    1. Re:Link A has more hits than link B by Pentium100 · · Score: 3, Informative

      It looks like SlimBrowser uses the IE engine*, so it probably supports whatever IE does.

      * the system requirements for SlimBrowser say:

      Windows 98 or above with at least Internet Explorer 5.0. Internet Explorer 8.0 is recommended for improved performance and security.

      So it probably uses the IE rendering engine. AFAIK, the security and performance of Firefox, Opera or Chrome do not depend on which version of IE I have.

    2. Re:Link A has more hits than link B by houghi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But too many choices will confuse the general public

      Yet limiting their choices is NOT an option. I am 'confused' by the amount of stores I can buy things. I am 'confused' by the sorts of food I can buy. Clothes, computers, cars, camera's, women... All things where I am 'confused' by the choice I have.

      Yet I rather be confused than somebody else make the choice for me.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    3. Re:Link A has more hits than link B by nmb3000 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It might have been a bit unfair that MS had a stranglehold on the browser market for those PCs that had Windows pre-installed.

      Except that IE's market share was slipping long before the EU felt the need to pointlessly start throwing their weight around.

      Choice is good, and it's great that the EU evened the playing field. But too many choices will confuse the general public.

      The EU did not level anything. All they did, as you note, is introduce confusion. Anyone who's read much of Raymond Chen's blog knows the thought that goes into initial user experience. Starting off by throwing up dialog boxes and asking the user questions they cannot answer is NOT helpful and just reminds people that computers are hard to use.

      Something like 90% of users probably fall into one or two categories when it comes to the stupid browser ballot:

      1. Already have a browser they like. Ballot serves no purpose.
      2. Have no idea what a "browser" is, and just want to check their email. They click a button randomly, or maybe based on which icon is the prettiest. Ballot still serves no purpose for the user -- all it manages to do is artificially spread around market share to no-name browsers.

      Given TFS's saying "The answers are very mixed.", I would guess most fall into the 2nd category. Maybe browsers that haven't seen an improvement should make shinier icons.

      --
      "What do you despise? By this are you truly known." --Princess Irulan, Manual of Muad'Dib
      /)
    4. Re:Link A has more hits than link B by Pentium100 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Microsoft has a monopoly in the desktop OS market. And yes, monopoly does not mean that MS is the only supplier, it means that it has very large market share and as such, it influences the market and can influence other markets more so than some other company.

      Let's say that Microsoft made it so that WebM video codec (or, say, Firefox) does not work on Windows. Very few people will change their OS just to use the single program that does not work, so the result would be that the market share of Firefox or WebM would decrease sharply. On the other hand, if some Linux distribution made it so that it was not possible to run Wine (and in turn, windows programs) or h.264, the impact on the usage of those programs would not change much (even assuming that everyone stayed with their distribution).

      I hear the internet connectivity in the USA is great, you have so many options that you can choose and the competition between ISPs is so fierce that my 80mbps connection must seem like dial-up to you. I mean if one ISP starts capping the connection or offers only DSL you can just move to some other ISP...

      Microsoft makes a good OS (well, somehow people are buying and using it, so it must be good or Microsoft somehow manages to make it happen wven though the OS is not that good), but it should not have the power to dictate other markets (what if it made Windows only compatible with Intel CPUs, or just AMD CPUs? Should it hold that much power over the CPU manufacturers?)

      Same thing with the browser. A lot of people do not know what a "browser" is, they just use the blue "e" to get to the internet. IE is not the best browser (IE8 is Ok, but this started when the newest IE version was 6) and it is not compatible with the standards, so web designers have to make pages compatible with IE and the standard browsers or they would lose clients. That's why the EU made Microsoft offer users a choice, it was hoped that some of the users would find out about the choice that they have (if someone uses IE because he prefers it, the menu was just a one time annoyance, for others, it offered a choice).

      Someone will now say that notepad, paint and other programs are the same, so you have to offer choices on them too. Well, no. First of all, the other programs are basic and they do their job well, also, they are compatible with standard formats, so there is no harm in users continuing to use them, unlike IE, especially IE6.

  4. Re:What really matters by outsider007 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Alas, the difference between -1 troll and +5 funny is, ultimately, a matter of split second timing.

    --
    If you mod me down the terrorists will have won
  5. Got to love lousy statisticians by SmallFurryCreature · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yeah yeah, extrapolating future trends by drawing a straight line between past points. That is SUCH a reliable method.

    But hey, good news, by these figures IE will be at 0% in 5 years and Google at well over a 100%.

    The browser ballot changed things, would the lines have been as they are now without it? Nobody knows but it is not beyond imagination that IE would have bottomed out 50% instead and might even have climbed with the release of IE9.

    Basically, those who claim the ballot did not have an affect are claiming something like the new iPhone had no effect on iPhone sales. The old one was selling well, the new one sells well, ergo no change... because the old one would of course have done the same sale figures without a new release.

    --

    MMO Quests are like orgasms:

    You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.

    1. Re:Got to love lousy statisticians by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 2

      Yeah yeah, extrapolating future trends by drawing a straight line between past points. That is SUCH a reliable method.

      But nobody even speculated about what will happen in the future. This discussion is purely about what happened once the EU forced Microsoft to implement the browser choice window. My only comment was the decline shows a fairly constant drop since Mozilla came out. I wouldn't dare predict what is going to happen in the future, mainly because I don't know how IE9 will be received.

      The browser ballot changed things, would the lines have been as they are now without it? Nobody knows but it is not beyond imagination that IE would have bottomed out 50% instead and might even have climbed with the release of IE9.

      The fact that there is absolutely no change in the trends in either direction is definitely an indication that the ballot had no effect. The idea that IE might have bottomed out at 50% is pure, unsupported speculation.

    2. Re:Got to love lousy statisticians by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 2

      Correlation is not causation. Remember?

      What a silly response. It is quite simple. Microsoft introduced the browser ballot window. The market trends for browsers after this happened turned out to be the same as they were prior to that. This isn't an opinion, it is on the graphs.

      Are we expected to believe the scenario that another poster postulated that the almost constant drop in usage for Internet Explorer over the last 7 or 8 years would have coincidentally halted at around March 2010, and that the drop caused by the browser selection window would turn out to be EXACTLY that same as it was dropping before? Nary a blip on the chart! I think I will follow Occam's razor and stick with my simpler explanation.

      The fact that Microsoft's browser usage had plummeted prior to it being removed as the default browser clearly shows that being the pre-installed is not a guarantee that you will win the browser wars.

    3. Re:Got to love lousy statisticians by fermion · · Score: 3, Interesting
      What we do see from the chart is that everyone won because it appeared that many made a choice, and when they did over half of them went with a browser that was not MS.

      It also appears that over time the share of non-MS browser stayed pretty consistent. This indicates that we are going to have a healthy standards based market as no firm is going to develop specifically for MS, or Chrome, given that they will automatically lose a majority of their potential customers.

      It also appears that Chrome growth might be limited. Google has the money to pull people away from IE, but not other browsers. This and other evidence shows that, despite, or perhaps due to Chrome legitimizing non-IE browsers, Firefox has market share that would be considered outlandish a year ago, and other browsers are holding their own. Therefore Google is competing for the 60% of the market or so that IE controlled when Chrome came on the scene Given that other browsers are still growing, some of which will be consumed by them.

      We see, again, it is unlikely a fully dominant browser wil emerge. MS has the money to keep Google from taking over the market. It may be in a year Firefox will be the top browser, albeit with minority market share, with Google and MS fighting to be #2. Safari and Opera would fighting for a distant place 4 and 5.

      Of course downloads does not a user make. I have many browsers in my computer. I mostly use Camino,but launch others for particular sites.

      --
      "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
  6. Obligatory XKCD by rsmith-mac · · Score: 5, Funny

    Extrapolation: because past performance perfectly predicts future growth.

  7. Rise of Chrome by maroberts · · Score: 2

    The problem with the minor browsers is perhaps perception. Chrome has been successfully marketed as a leading edge "shiny" must have browser, and it's market share has risen accordingly. Opera on the other hand with its "we're the most compliant" attitude is perhaps perceived as a slightly dowdy tech-heads choice, and its market share has been a bit flat.

    --

    Donte Alistair Anderson Roberts - hi son!
    Karma: Chameleon

    1. Re:Rise of Chrome by bunratty · · Score: 2

      I've always seen Opera as the "we're better than you" choice. Better at standards compliance. Better user interface. Faster. More customizable. More secure. Lower memory usage. Better everything! Then when people actually try it, it doesn't live up to the expectation. I think they should be a bit more humble in their marketing. Maybe the "give it a try and maybe you'll like it" choice.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
  8. Re:Chrome growth is frightening. by TeXMaster · · Score: 3

    I know there's lots of google fan boys on Slashdot, but I find it frightening that Chrome use has been growing so much. Google already has a very powerful market presence on the web, and I don't think putting them in charge of your browser is a good idea. They are a corporation for profit, and hence inherently evil, like any machine that cares about nothing but profit would inherently be.

    The choice to use Firefox is obvious because it's the best browser. But people should stick with Firefox anyway because it's OPEN SOURCE, and no corporation could abuse the power of it's market share for that fact alone.

    You do know that Google Chrome is a branded (and who-knows-how-changed) version of the OPEN SOURCE Chromium, right?

    As for the choice to use Firefox being obvious because it's the best browser ... funny, for me it's only the third choice (the first being Opera, which is leaving me quite disgruntled due to the rendering bugs and memory leaks that started showing up in version 11, the second being Chromium, i.e. the open source browser on which Google Chrome is based, and Firefox being only the last option if nothing else works).

    --
    "I'm never quite so stupid as when I'm being smart" (Linus van Pelt)
  9. Re:Chrome growth is frightening. by Nerdfest · · Score: 2

    They are a corporation for profit, and hence inherently evil, like any machine that cares about nothing but profit would inherently be.

    I'm not saying that they necessarily are, but it's possible they may be one of the few companies that realizes that long term profit can be made by providing good services to your users and not screwing them over in the short term. I don't think making money is inherently Evil, it's pretty much the same as you or me getting paid to do our job.

  10. Where is this "ballot screen", anyway? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I'm curious, where is this "ballot screen", anyway?

    I'm from Germany. I just bought a laptop a month or two ago; it came with windows 7 preinstalled (naturally: try getting a laptop from a major manufacturer that doesn't come with windows preinstalled). Browser-wise, it had IE installed on it, and that was it.

    I fired up IE precisely once, to download an alternative browser, and I've been using that instead ever since. But I sure as heck didn't get a "browser ballot" screen where I could choose my preferred browser, or even any sort of hint that there are alternatives in the first place.

    Of course, *I* didn't need either, but if it had been my 68-year old aunt instead who only recently got her first computer ever, it wouldn't even have occurred to her that there might be other browsers. And if it had, chances are she wouldn't have gone to the trouble of firing up IE just for downloading an alternative and installing that (which would probably have exceeded her abilities, anyway). And isn't that the situation where the "ballot screen" is supposed to help?

    So, where is it? I've never seen it. I've never heard of any seeing it, personally. It keeps getting mentioned on Slashdot on occasion, but that's the only place I've encountered it.

    Where is it?

  11. So, when will MacOS have a browser ballot?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So I'm still waiting for the EU to require Apple to have a browser ballot upon Mac OS first boot.... I won't hold my breath though.

  12. FlashPeak looks like a scraped site by billcopc · · Score: 2

    Perhaps the reason FlashPeak SlimBrowser gets so few downloads is because the web site looks exactly like those shady download sites that scrape and index all the freeware and demos, are full of ads and/or spyware.

    If they invested $29 in a modern and professional-looking template, maybe a few screenshots and better promotional text, they'd see more conversions. Policy alone can't convince people to trust you if your image is that of a 3rd world splog.

    --
    -Billco, Fnarg.com