WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015

WrongSizeGlass writes "InformationWeek is reporting that Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015 according to IDC. IDC predicts 2015 will bring: Android 45.4%, WP7 & WinMobile 20.9%, iOS 15.3%, RIM 13.7%, Symbian 0.2%, and 'Others' 4.6%. These numbers would move WP7 into 2nd place and leave iOS in 3rd place with a slightly smaller piece of the smart phone pie than they current hold (15.7%). The author of the InformationWeek story isn't buying IDC's forecast, because of WP7's anemic sales to date and Microsoft's recent stumbles with its first two updates. I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."

Comments

Obligatory XKCD

[taktoa]

http://xkcd.com/605/

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[Penguinisto]

No kidding.

IDC tries to justify it by throwing the word "Nokia" around a lot, but honestly, Nokia will (at least IMHO) be lucky to remain in the smartphone business by 2015.

There's something else that screams "bullshit!" at IDC's predictions: while next quarter's marketshare stats (e.g. Canalys, ComScore, etc) may say differently, Microsoft's share of the mobile market is still dropping like mad. Even though WinMo 6.5 still has some mass to blow off, one would think that nearly 6 months of WP 7 would have at least slowed down the fall a little bit.

The final elephant in an already heavily pachyderm-populated room is Microsoft's utter silence on sales numbers. They almost always trumpet and trot out numbers, even if it's just channel-related. We all heard the big, bad 'two millionz0rz since launch!!!111' figure back in January, even though those were only channel shipments. Now, Microsoft's marketing department has nothing but the sound of crickets when it comes to mobile licensing sales (or even shipments).

Taken all together, it spells a whole lot of potential fail, and IDC needs to do a hell of a lot more than shout Nokia's name, like it were some sort of talisman that defies all logic.

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[Culture20]

Nokia will (at least IMHO) be lucky to remain in the smartphone business by 2015.

Nokia will be lucky to remain in the smartphone business by Qt4 2013. They're betting on WP7 with no safety net.

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

Maybe they were but not anymore.

The N8's a decent piece of hardware, don't get me wrong, but, they lost the lead. The N8 is the first Nokia phone to have Multitouch. In 2010. Late 2010 at that, after massive delays.

Nokia has no product vision for the future. Add to that the lag of having to actually release WP7 phones. They're sitting ducks.

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[hairyfeet]

Well to be fair, and while personally I think it will be Android/iOS neck and neck with WP7 or WebOS third, the key to whether or not MSFT can pull this off will be bundle deals. if MSFT gets Nokia to put out a WinPhone with a kick ass GPU by holiday season AND manage to tie Halo in, like say having a Halo Phone Game that boosts your characters and earns achievements for the game at home? THEN they might be able to pull this off.

Because to be fair Windows 7 plays REAL nice with the X360. I've set up the Win 7/X360 combo for a couple of customers and it really is butt simple to make it a kick ass multimedia setup, so if they can "pull an Apple" and tie everything together, so say your WinPhone can watch anything you have at home by using the WinPC as a slingbox, while tying gaming between X360 and WinPhone together? Then yes I can see MSFT taking second place, especially if their successor to the X360 kicks ass.

But that is gonna be a hell of a big IF and will depend on the suits at MSFT not cocking things up. MSFT has a history of screwing the pooch and not "getting it", see Zune, Kin, Vista, etc, but the basic parts they need are there, the question is can they bundle them together in a smooth and easy to use package. While they do have a shot, and Android proves you can come along and change the game if you are in the right place with the right product, I frankly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

My personal prediction is thus: Android will burn enough folks with CCC (Cheapo Chinese Crap) that they won't be able to hold first, and Apple's traditionally high prices will make a nice opening for someone in the middle, but if HP can keep from screwing the pooch WebOS could be the one to take that slot, at the very least with their rep with businesses they could be the one to finish off RIM and take over the business phone market. So final call...Apple and Android, followed by either WebOS or WinPhone with Blackberry DOA.

I wonder something else

[93 Escort Wagon]

I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8.

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

Re:I wonder something else

[rsborg]

Sure they will... they go in, they don't back out and admit it's a failure unless it's horribly obvious. I wager somewhere between Zune (extremely low) and Xbox (in the game, but not a huge winner) in popularity, probably more like the Zune being fourth after Android, iOS and RIM in some order.

Perhaps the GP comment

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

is really more about questioning Microsoft's future, not just the future of Microsoft's phone business. Recently, they just killed Zune... not because they didn't want to stay in, but because they're tightening their belt. Microsoft is facing mounting pressure from the Googles, Apples and Facebooks of this world, who are hungry and execute well. It may come time at some point that they really are forced to focus on what they do best... business desktop software. This could mean the (forced) abandonment of WP software, Bing, etc.

Re:I wonder something else

[whoever57]

It may come time at some point that they really are forced to focus on what they do best... business desktop software. This could mean the (forced) abandonment of WP software, Bing, etc.

Microsoft can't afford to do this. In the past, Microsoft's success was enabled by owning the complete flow, from the proprietary exchange formats to the proprietary office document formats.

But now, the "must have" is the smartphone. Hence Microsoft is playing on the other foot -- the Office and Windows have to play nice with the smartphones. But if Office and Windows play nice with smartphones, then other tools can interact with Office and Wndows, dramatically reducing the value of Microsoft's proprietary format lock-in.

The personal computing landscape has shifted and Microsoft has yet to catch up -- and, indeed, may never catch up.

Re:I wonder something else

[GNUALMAFUERTE]

No, microsoft only won once: DOS. After that, they just used that marketshare alongside some really shady business practices to push windows as the #1 OS. After they became filthily rich, their strategy has been fairly simple ... they push OEM manufacturers to bundle windoze with new computers, so that average joe considers windoze part of the computer, the default, and doesn't even consider anything else, they keep certain missfeatures, bugs, and some awful design issues in order to keep the huge fix-windows industry alive (overcrowded IT departments, anti virus/malware/spyware/whateverware, and the shitload of motherfuckers that make a living out of charging joe six pack 50 bucks to remove all the crapware he installed while trying to download porn), sliding money under the table for some high-level managers at fortune 500 companies, etc, etc.

That's it. Everything m$ has done after that (that wasn't directly related to windows on x86) has failed.

Microsoft has never had any kind of success in any new market. This will not be an exception.

People is afraid to migrate, afraid to change, therefore they are still relevant in the x86 OSs business. Anything else is brand new and fair game for everyone, and m$ just can't compete on that, competition hasn't ever been one of microsoft's strongest points.

Re:I wonder something else

[Drishmung]

Microsoft is not known for strong initial offerings. The original IE was awful. The original Windows was unusable. They tend to stay in and fight, and sometimes win.

I find this statement telling. Because, a few (three?) years ago, I believe it would have been something like:

"They stay in and fight, and always win in the end."

Once, Microsoft was perceived as invincible. Once, if Microsoft entered your market you either tried to get them to buy you or else just gnawed your own leg off first (e.g. Novell and NetWare) because Resistance Is Useless.

Now, Microsoft is not perceived as invincible. The world has indeed changed...

Re:I wonder something else

[Crazy Taco]

Dumbphones will go the way of word processing machines and PDAs. There just won't be a reason to make them, even if many people are satisfied by them, because the smartphone can serve both markets.

I would wholeheartedly agree with you, except for one thing: battery life. Unless that gets fixed, dumb phones will never go away. Most dumb phone users like the fact that their batteries last a week, and smartphones cannot fill that void at this time, nor do they appear likely to any time in the next few years. I'm betting that dumb phones, albeit with more features and possibly even running a bare bones version of Android under the hood, will continue for the next few years.

Re:I wonder something else

[Crazy Taco]

Visual Studio, .Net, IIS (which has become better than Apache after years of being worse), X Box, Office, SQL Server, Exchange, and probably many more. I should also like to point out that their keyboards and mice are some of the best around, especially the Microsoft Natural 4000. Is that as exciting as an iPhone? Maybe not, but I get more use out of it than my smartphone, and it is an excellent product.

Then in 2016 ....

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Then in the year 2016, this forecaster will return to Earth from whatever planet he is in, once what he is smoking wears off.

Sillyness on both sides of WP7 fence.

[RightSaidFred99]

There's no reason to think it will overtake iOS at this point, in fact it's not doing all that well. Conversely - it's amusing people think MS has no chance in the smartphone market now (same way people mocked Kinect not too long ago). Never count someone with that much money out completely.

Re:Is Informationweek owned by Microsoft?

[icebraining]

Uh, it's IDC who predicts that, not InformationWeek. The IW guy actually doubts the prediction.

Further, Microsoft has stumbled badly with the first two system updates for its smartphone platform. First by delaying it for nearly two months, and second by bungling the actual delivery of the updates. Things are not going so smoothly for Microsoft. Heck, WP7 champion Joe Belfiore actually wrote a public apology to its WP7 customers about the whole update debacle.

This is the platform IDC thinks is going to own 20.9% of the market in four years?

I say fiddlesticks.

Re:inb4 shill

[homey of my owney]

Really... If ever a story reeked of being purchased. I guess we know where those "expert" house's crystal balls are made.

Excellent

[toadlife]

Also, see this.

Re:Naah I disagree

[jheath314]

They are so precise they even give the percentages down to the first decimal place... they're that good! I'd be impressed if they even got the ordinal rankings right over that stretch of time (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc), even moreso if they could ballpark the percentages (30-ish %), but then again i suppose that's why I don't have people paying me to predict things.

Re:inb4 shill

[the linux geek]

Looking at it purely from tools, I'd rather develop for WP7 than iPhone or Android. WP7 has a proper visual layout designer, while iPhone is tied to Xcode and ObjectiveC and Android has the awful XML layout system, in all of its buggy and inconsistent glory. (try putting a ListView in a ScrollView sometime!)

On the other hand, the niceness of the tools is offset by the fucking shameful cripplings in the library. The nastiest thing I can think of in this regard is lack of sockets, which makes a huge portion of modern software - you know, pretty much anything that isn't HTTP - impossible to write. There was some hope that this would end up in the NoDo update, but there's still no sign of it.

Re:Last Mover

[tsm_sf]

Ballmer: "I want a Zune you can make calls from."

Jobs: "I want a fucking star trek datapad, but awesomer."


THAT is the problem with Microsoft.

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