WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015

WrongSizeGlass writes "InformationWeek is reporting that Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015 according to IDC. IDC predicts 2015 will bring: Android 45.4%, WP7 & WinMobile 20.9%, iOS 15.3%, RIM 13.7%, Symbian 0.2%, and 'Others' 4.6%. These numbers would move WP7 into 2nd place and leave iOS in 3rd place with a slightly smaller piece of the smart phone pie than they current hold (15.7%). The author of the InformationWeek story isn't buying IDC's forecast, because of WP7's anemic sales to date and Microsoft's recent stumbles with its first two updates. I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."

Comments

Obligatory XKCD

[taktoa]

http://xkcd.com/605/

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[Ant P.]

http://dilbert.com/fast/2009-12-09/

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[Culture20]

They make arguably the best hardware of any phone manufacturer

For the low end phones, that's true. I'm a Linux geek, and I'm in a love/hate relationship with my iPhone, but I purposefully didn't buy an n900 after seeing what a clunky, hugemongonormous piece of cheap plastic it was. If they had spent just 50 euro more per phone for a nice solid case and a thin form factor, I would have spent 100 euro more and been happily running UQM or Firefox on my phone.

Re:Obligatory XKCD

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

Maybe they were but not anymore.

The N8's a decent piece of hardware, don't get me wrong, but, they lost the lead. The N8 is the first Nokia phone to have Multitouch. In 2010. Late 2010 at that, after massive delays.

Nokia has no product vision for the future. Add to that the lag of having to actually release WP7 phones. They're sitting ducks.

Nokia Sales

[Moderator]

"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

Not so fast...the author seems to base WP7's success on the success of Nokia, which is uncertain at best.

Yes, Nokia sells more cellphones than most other cellphone manufacturers COMBINED...however, a large majority of those sales are S40 devices, simple dumbphones that can't do much more than call and receive texts, but have a week plus battery life.

Nokia has, since mid-February, doubled-back on their future strategy. First, it was WP7 ONLY...then they were going to continue to release Symbian and Meego, now, Symbian is dead as of 2010.

It sounds to me like Nokia has no clue what they are going to do. At best, their explanation for the smartphone market has been murky; at worst, they still haven't addressed how they are going to make up the marketshare currently held by 600 million S40 dumbphones. Mostly people who do not want a dataplan or a smartphone. WP7 will not sweep into the low-end and take that market share. It's like Ford giving up making Fords, and deciding that they will only make high-end Lincolns to suit everyone.

I said it before, Samsung seems to have figured this out. They will use Bada on the low end, and Android on the high end. In this case, I would take a lot away from WP7's percentage, and bump up the "Others" category significantly.

I wonder something else

[93 Escort Wagon]

I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8.

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

Re:I wonder something else

[rsborg]

Sure they will... they go in, they don't back out and admit it's a failure unless it's horribly obvious. I wager somewhere between Zune (extremely low) and Xbox (in the game, but not a huge winner) in popularity, probably more like the Zune being fourth after Android, iOS and RIM in some order.

Perhaps the GP comment

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

is really more about questioning Microsoft's future, not just the future of Microsoft's phone business. Recently, they just killed Zune... not because they didn't want to stay in, but because they're tightening their belt. Microsoft is facing mounting pressure from the Googles, Apples and Facebooks of this world, who are hungry and execute well. It may come time at some point that they really are forced to focus on what they do best... business desktop software. This could mean the (forced) abandonment of WP software, Bing, etc.

Re:I wonder something else

[Drishmung]

Microsoft is not known for strong initial offerings. The original IE was awful. The original Windows was unusable. They tend to stay in and fight, and sometimes win.

I find this statement telling. Because, a few (three?) years ago, I believe it would have been something like:

"They stay in and fight, and always win in the end."

Once, Microsoft was perceived as invincible. Once, if Microsoft entered your market you either tried to get them to buy you or else just gnawed your own leg off first (e.g. Novell and NetWare) because Resistance Is Useless.

Now, Microsoft is not perceived as invincible. The world has indeed changed...

IDC

[Dan East]

This is a ridiculous speculation by IDC. From this article:

IDC also hugely underestimated Android growth (again), predicting 24.6 percent market share by 2014. But Android already exceeded the projection in 2010 -- just months after IDC's forecast.

Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me.

Re:IDC

[Anonymous Coward]

"Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me."

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure they have to twist and lean to one side to reach the place where they're pulling their numbers from.

Re:Is Informationweek owned by Microsoft?

[icebraining]

Uh, it's IDC who predicts that, not InformationWeek. The IW guy actually doubts the prediction.

Further, Microsoft has stumbled badly with the first two system updates for its smartphone platform. First by delaying it for nearly two months, and second by bungling the actual delivery of the updates. Things are not going so smoothly for Microsoft. Heck, WP7 champion Joe Belfiore actually wrote a public apology to its WP7 customers about the whole update debacle.

This is the platform IDC thinks is going to own 20.9% of the market in four years?

I say fiddlesticks.

Re:inb4 shill

[homey of my owney]

Really... If ever a story reeked of being purchased. I guess we know where those "expert" house's crystal balls are made.

Didn't they learn last time?

[Tridus]

This is what happened when Gartner tried to predict the mobile market a few years out: http://www.asymco.com/2010/09/12/

They were so far off that it's hillarious today.

Re:Last Mover

[tsm_sf]

Ballmer: "I want a Zune you can make calls from."

Jobs: "I want a fucking star trek datapad, but awesomer."


THAT is the problem with Microsoft.