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China's High-Speed Trains Coming Off the Rails
Hugh Pickens writes "The Washington Post reports that China's expanding network of ultramodern high-speed trains is coming under growing scrutiny over costs and because of concerns that builders ignored safety standards in the quest to build faster trains in record time as new leadership at the Railways Ministry announced that to enhance safety, the top speed of all trains was being decreased from about 218 mph to 186. Without elaborating, the ministry called the safety situation 'severe' and said it was launching safety checks along the entire network of tracks. Meanwhile China's Finance Ministry announced that the Railways Ministry continues to lose money as the ministry's debt stands at $276 billion, almost all borrowed from Chinese banks. 'In China, we will have a debt crisis — a high-speed rail debt crisis,' says Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University and longtime critic of high-speed rail who worries that the cost of the project might have created a hidden debt bomb that threatens China's banking system. 'I think it is more serious than your subprime mortgage crisis. You can always leave a house or use it. The rail system is there. It's a burden. You must operate the rail system, and when you operate it, the cost is very high.'"
Oh really? You mean there are existing safety standards for new technology?
And here I thought it was just the engineer's conservative estimates...
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
It does not matter so much what you say you want, nor does it really matter what everyone knows is necessary or correct, you tend to get what you incentivize or reward. If you reward speed (wrt project/task completion) but only talk about quality then you only get speed.
No, you actually do not HAVE to operate the expensive rail system you built, if you cannot afford to.
The world is full of rusting hulks of things people once thought they had to have, like wind turbines in Hawaii and California... monuments to people who once thought they had to have something, that it turned out they could do without after all.
Would dropping some of the train lines hurt China economically? Without doubt, but then so does spending far more than you take in.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
either. When I go to Europe, I see them continuously replacing the ties with new ones, I guess the rails themselves along with it. Concrete ties are not uncommon.
Last year, in my area, the traffic signal for a train came down and I had to wait 10 minutes for this slow movng freight train. When it finally was within sight, the rail jumped up 24 inches, along with these half-rotten ties (they must have been ancient), completely out of the ground! It was nuts. Then as the train was going over it, any time there was a space in the wheels, it kept flopping up and down, until the train left and there was quite a bit of distance from it.
It looked so freaking dangerous, I was concerned enough to call with the local train authorities, and they were like "Yeah, that's normal. Why you think we make the freight trains move so slow in the first place" and basically hung up on me without wanting to even know exactly where.
Where are the stories of wrecks? They don't standout in my memory anyway. Plus, the second link says they have twice the assets as they have debt. Nothing like the 40 dollars of assets to 39 dollars debt plus in the USA sub prime. Are these stories simply "sour grapes" or what?
Houses on the other hand you can simply stop building so many and the ones you have go up in value eventually.
There are lots of examples of houses being built and after being abandoned, never being bought and eventually fall into ruin. Detroit has a ton of examples of properties where this is true. Anything you let lie fallow falls apart eventually.. a rail system seems much the same to me, if you stop running it you can either maintain the rails hoping they will have future value, or just totally abandon the system and let it fall into ruin.
I agree though it's a worse position they are in.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Are we supposed to be cheering at the knowledge that we're not the only ones that f**ked up our money management?
No, I would say sighing at the fact the up and coming world governments haven't learned from the fallen, and the fact that we as well have chosen not to learn from failed predecessors either. Absolute power corrupts absolutely, and I feel the greed-driven will speed the entire global-economy off the rails in the coming years. When the big financial meltdown comes, I hope you're all ready. Inflationary capitalistic expansion will have its cost, and it will most likely end in human lives of those getting the trickle down from the top.
All those marketers, all those hedge-fund managers, all those financial instruments, the money printing, the interest rate hikes, the depletion of old-guard natural energy resources, the cost-cutting, the parasitic leeches of banks and speculative investment..they will kill the host before they kill themselves.
'We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.' RPF
It looks like China is heading for an enormous debt crisis. Add the creation of ghost cities as covered earlier this month and it looks pretty scary! It'll make US's debt crunch look like a drop in a bucket.
Unfortunately, that apparently isn't the only bubble in China:
How Big Is the Chinese Property Bubble?
China's credit bubble on borrowed time as inflation bites
China: the coming costs of a superbubble
It seems likely that the world has a few more financial tremors coming.
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Straw man argument.
No one really believes we won't run out. Some of us just don't care much. When commodities run out, they subsidize their replacements via outrageous cost. Besides, the momentum is unstoppable, anyway. Usually, we learn not to tilt at windmills.
What you're really calling for is to artificially decrease demand for oil, which isn't going to happen in a sane world. Any attempt to do so will simply create a gray or black market in oil to those who refuse to cooperate with the regimen. Those who produce will be all too willing to sell, and those who consume will be all too willing to continue, while paying lip service to the goal. It likely would even increase demand for oil until it is all gone. Then the solution summarized in the previous paragraph will happen in any event.
About the only way to subvert the whole process before oil runs out would be to create a renewable organic fuel with limited negatives vis a vis fossilized plant matter. Something that burns in current engines with limited modification. Arrange for it to be cheaper than extraction of said fossilized plant matter. That would work, but it's a tall order. However, if one wanted to 'save the earth' to the extent that CO2 is a danger, that seems to be the most promising path.
As for why organic - the economic dislocation of changing every ICE in the world over to something else would eliminate any cost advantage in the fuel in any reasonable time frame. That's why hydrogen always sounded like a nonstarter to me. It depended on too many immature or nonexistent technologies to prosper.
HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
There exist not only standards, but also products you can compare your solution against. For example, the Shinkansen has a safety record that is hard to believe -- no dead, only a few hurt, and only one derailment during a rather strong earthquake. There is a reason it has taken all countries with successful high-speed train networks years and huge investment to get where there are. Engineering isn't simple, and problems aren't readily solved by party directives.
I, for one, have made the point about safety biting the Chinese fast train in the ass just after they start the service many times. I think it is a very good thing that they are reacting the good way -- by slowing the rail, and looking into the trouble, instead of, you know, just running the trains at full speed and collecting the bodies.
Yeah, China is about due. Japan and the USA (along with Greece, Ireland, Spain, and others) ignored basic economic principles and are paying the price. (I'm NOT talking about the Tsunami tragedy in Japan, but the stagnation of the economy.) "Stimulus" money has to come from the places where it's produced, and is a by-product of productivity. If you loan money to people or projects, those recipients need to have the means to pay it back. Governments do not produce anything, so they must get their money from those who are productive. To "stimulate" the economy, they are taking it from productive projects (Exports), skimming expenses off the top and then sending it back as "stimulus" funds. The other alternative is to create money out of thin air, which causes inflation. Either way, the so-called "stimulus" loses its effectiveness the more often it is used. Japan's last big stimulus attempts created almost no movement in their economy; not even short-term.
China's rail problem is not the cause of the bank problems: The cause is that banks were forced to loan money to unsound projects at unrealistic rates. China has huge amounts of "Sovereign Wealth" due to their absolute and competitive advantages over their Western customers, but they have no place to put it, internal to China. Distributing it to unsound projects wastes resources and unbalances the internal economy. Some infrastructure development could bolster the economy (like toll roads in the USA). However, the implication derived from the banker's statements is that the "tolls" from operating the railway are not sufficient to service the debts. Banks don't get their money back and the government gets to subsidize a losing project. (Sound familiar?)
"The mind works quicker than you think!"
If China gets into a debt crisis, who's going to loan us money to cover our debt crisis?
Hardly. Their debt bomb is the ghost cities, and hyper inflated housing prices. With the average wage under $3k/usd a year, and hosing prices fast approaching half a million, there's going to be some serious really fast.
Om, nomnomnom...
This is just more proof the the Chinese government built this just to win a pissing contest. First of all note that they are saying "fastest", but it's really just the fastest AVERAGE speed. The reason they chose average to compare themselves with the TGV and whatnot is that they can jack up the average speed merely by changing operational parameters. The TGV is forced to, by law, slow down when near cities. This is done out of both noise and safety concerns. If the French government didn't mind shitting all over it's citizens like the CCP does, then it would have the fastest average speed. Chinas government is more than willing to sacrifice its citizens lives and health just to inflate their own egos.
Monstar L
The joke is that there are no competent Chinese engineers to fix it. They'll have to hire German, Japanese, or French engineers from the firms that produced the plans they stole to build these lines in the first place and then pay them to fix the mistakes the incompetent Chinese "engineers" made "adapting" them.
I'm not sure the joke is what you are thinking. Its not that the new guys have to turn to the old guys for help, its that the old guys are willing to train their competitors/replacements.
The lever you have pulled brakes is out of service please make a note of it.
17.6% of the annual deficit of the united states. About 1550 hours worth of new debt.
"Change" is coming. One way or the other...
Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
The story I'm hearing here in China is that the majority of the "Specially trained, highly skilled, highly experienced and professional" construction workers used their extra salaries to hire regular labor off the farms and streets to sign in and do their work for them, paid them the normal construction rates, and then stayed home on the other 80% of the salary.
kartune85 : Incapable of reason, observation or learning. A kind of dim, drab, flightless parrot.
The old 2 tracks was fine for slow and cargo trains. It is poorly designed for highspeed rail. Instead, the USA should be developing monorail with seraphim motor. It is easier to automate the operation as well as installation. That is important.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
China has so many bubbles. This is just part of the infrastructure bubble. The west should be working hard to get new companies with automation started here. China's cold war is going to explode in its face. We do not want to be there, or one of its victims.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
How do you get severe cost overruns on *rail*?
Trains can carry an entire ton of cargo 500 miles while expending a single gallon of diesel fuel. Because of the extremely steady load, train engines routinely pull a million miles or more (with an overhaul every few hundred thou) before needing replacement.
Further, train tracks cost much less to maintain per mile than roads.
Now, I do realize that I'm referring partially to cargo rail common in the USA, rather than the higher speed passenger trains, but even so, the costs per passenger mile for any train should be dramatically less than car, bus, or plane.
Sounds like corruption at work, if you ask me. (Same as the USA loan crisis)
I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
The US is almost entirely a heavy rail system, made for freight. It is an extremely efficient way of moving lots of cargo, costs 0.5-1% of what it does by truck energy wise. It is also heavily used. It isn't like only a little stuff goes by rail, tons does. In Flagstaff, AZ which is bisected by a major east-west rail line you have a large train go through about once every 15-20 minutes, 24 hours a day.
You'll notice that there are not catastrophes involving trains all the time. Accidents happen, but they are not that common. The rules for what works with a train weighing thousands of tons and traveling at 20-70mph depending on the area are different than one weighing on a couple hundred and traveling at 100+mph.
The US system is not designed for high speed passenger transit, but it works great for moving freight.
Hurrah for revolution, and more cannon-shot
A beggar on horseback lashes a beggar on foot
Hurrah for revolution, and cannon come again
The beggars have changed places, but the lash goes on.
From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
... rather than German ones.
Always better to be in a TGV rather than an ICE when it comes off the rails.
Watch this Heartland Institute video
More so, you should be sighing at the fact that if China goes through a significant recession, they will likely bring every other country down with them, with differing levels of effect. Though, countries like Australia, will be hit extremely hard.
The funniest thing about this post...
'I think it is more serious than your subprime mortgage crisis. You can always leave a house or use it. The rail system is there. It's a burden. You must operate the rail system, and when you operate it, the cost is very high.'
It may be more serious than the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, but what about China's own housing crisis, which is like the U.S. but way more extreme as it's pushed through by their Government.
Also, your rant is the least insightful post I've seen. "Inflationary capitalistic expansion", done by a communist country? An obscure reference to Reganomics in a country where it doesn't apply in the slightest?
The up and coming haven't learnt? I think they have, if China hadn't made in roads towards providing their citizens with freer markets, China would have gone the way of Russia, quite some time ago.
All those marketers, all those hedge-fund managers, all those financial instruments, the money printing, the interest rate hikes, the depletion of old-guard natural energy resources, the cost-cutting, the parasitic leeches of banks and speculative investment..they will kill the host before they kill themselves.
Okay, now you're just listing random things which people infer bad things about. More so, you're listing contradictory "bad ideas".
"the money printing" is the OPPOSITE of "the interest rate hikes" which is counteracted by "all those financial instruments" but increases "speculative investment" .
"All those marketers, all those hedge-fund managers" okay, you need to say something more than this?
I don't even know what the fuck "the parasitic leeches of banks" is referring to.
I immediately thought you were an arts student, because this is the most retarded, least well thought out shit I've read in a long time. But then I notice that your writing is exceptionally bad, and it's hard to understand what you're actually trying to say. So, I'm guessing you're NOT an arts student then.
Save us some time, and please stick to... whatever you specialize in.
Sincerely,
Society
This is my footer. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
Tell your local truckdriver that from now on he has to build his own roads and lets see how long he stays competitive.
No way am I telling that to the hairy, smelly truckdriver. Or her husband.
Slight difference in the scenarios: we pay collectively for our roads via rego and petrol taxes*, and we pay individually to purchase cars and keep them running. Rail users' fares do not pay for the capital costs of the track and only cover 25% of the running costs.
*(My federal government introduced a special tax years ago to make our fuel as expensive as everyone else's and they promised that the tax collected would fund 100% major road infrastructure. Consolidated revenue? What's that?)
When they came for the communists, I said "He's next door. Take him away. Goddam commies."
Look at Chinese cars. Very much clones of Honda and other Japanese brands yet youtube is replete with them failing European crash tests, some spectacularly. Very much a product of a society where all the appearances are there but the substance is not. Why? Most likely because for the most part there is little chance the blame will land on those who are mostly responsible.
Poor steel quality, copying only to the point of necessity, and an uninspired workforce, will all catch up to China soon.
Like North Korea, the real money and quality is only ensured when it comes to the military.
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
No, rail uses a third less energy than truck. Gross weight for trains can be over 800 ton miles per gallon, and over 200 ton miles per gallon for truck.
Yes, the US freight rail system is world class. Shame the politicians focus on high speed rail.
Wow you mean a centrally planned economy isn't working? No kidding. Who would have thought. When China collapses it will be just as shocking to the talking heads as when the Soviet Union collapsed or when we do. Central Planning cannot work. It is an impossibility.
I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.