The End of Paper Books
Hugh Pickens writes "Books are on their way to extinction, writes Kevin Kelly, adding that we are in a special moment when paper books are plentiful and cheap that will not last beyond the end of this century. 'It seems hard to believe now, but within a few generations, seeing an actual paper book will be as rare for most people as seeing an actual lion.' But a prudent society keeps at least one specimen of all it makes, so Brewster Kahle, the founder of the Internet Archive, has decided that we should keep a copy of every book that Google and Amazon scan so that somewhere in the world there was at least one physical copy to represent the millions of digital copies. That way, if anyone ever wondered if the digital book's text had become corrupted or altered, they could refer back to the physical book that was archived somewhere safe. The books are being stored in cardboard boxes, stacked five high on a pallet wrapped in plastic, stored 40,000 strong in a shipping container, inside a metal warehouse on a dead-end industrial street near the railroad tracks in Richmond California. In this nondescript and 'nothing valuable here' building, Kahle hopes to house 10 million books — about the contents of a world-class university library. 'It still amazes me that after 20 years the only publicly available back up of the internet is the privately funded Internet Archive. The only broad archive of television and radio broadcasts is the same organization,' writes Kelly. 'They are now backing up the backups of books. Someday we'll realize the precocious wisdom of it all and Brewster Kahle will be seen as a hero.'"
A few generations until seeing a paper book is as rare as seeing a lion? Thats a bit absurd, I dont know anyone who has thrown out their book collection after getting a kindle. I have a rather extensive collection and though they mostly collect dust now I have no plans on ditching them. I can see a day where new books are no longer published but just expecting all of the old ones to just disappear is ridiculous.
Just think. With the death of paper books and the move to only digital copies (most of which will be slathered in DRM) you can eliminate the concept of resale, ensure that old editions of books become unusable, and revise history on the fly. Region lockouts, EULAs, acitvations and time limits. Then they can layer even more restrictions on top and enforce them via more bad pro-corporation, anti-citizen laws.
Sure seems like we're already on this road. All they need to do is require government licensing for access to a compiler...
Since after the EMP bombs all go off, no one's eReaders are gonna be working all that well anymore.
Doesn't *anyone* read science fiction anymore?
You people just aren't *near* paranoid enough.
Textbooks are as good as dead, but their evil lives on in WebAssign and other grade-based extortion rackets that makes the old textbook scam look charitable.
"Education" and its associated businesses are built upon the concept of captive audiences and extortion. The education industry is what needs to die.
Great Intellect...
I guess its our doom to be treated to an annual "end of books" prediction, alongside "the year of linux on the desktop", "the year desktops go away and everyone gets an ipad", "the year ipads go away and everyone gets a specific e-device for every task they used desktops for in ancient times", etc. At least this prediction has the tact to place itself out "a few generations", alongside flying cars and the end of disease.
Sorry, dude. Keep your prognostication within five, ten years, and you have a discussion on your hands. Stretch it out to the point where most people reading right now will be dead, and you're writing a bit of fluff that, by design, can't be refuted or argued with.
Sadly, I don't think the death of the printed text book is going to save students any money. Publishers are just going to hide content behind a paid service rather than publishing an ebook you can easily pirate. Hell, they might even give the ebook away but require that you pay $100 for the online portion of the course materials. And your instructor will require you to sign up and pay for this service. Trust me, they will find a way to gouge students.
Older books (as in pre-word processor) on Kindle (not singling out Amazon, I'm sure iBooks and other digital stores share the same problems) are flawed. I've read a bunch of reviews of older books and there are common complaints regarding frequent typos from OCR. I am far more comfortable purchasing things written in more recent times in a digital format. That said, I confess an act of defiance in that I will not purchase the digital version unless it costs less so I still occasionally purchase paper.
we are in a special moment when paper books are plentiful and cheap [...] but within a few generations, seeing a actual paper book will be as rare for most people as seeing an actual lion
Ah, yes, I remember when lions were cheap and plentiful and virtually everyone saw at least a dozen of them on a daily basis. If only I had stocked up on lions back when I had the chance... :-(
This.
Richard Stallman's famous parable about the Right to Read, and what will happen if intellectual monopoly laws continue to grow:
http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
When you buy a book you own it and can re-read it as many times as you want. You can let your friends and family borrow it to read, or can even give it to someone else as a gift.
I hate to see books follow down the path that is being pushed for other media where you don't actually own a copy of the media but you simply rent or license it.
If a paper book ends up on some ban list it doesn't get revoked. Who needs the firemen from Fahrenheit 451 when you can simple push a button and automatically remove a copy of an e-book off of all digital reader devices.
Is this what the Library of Congress is supposed to be?
No, the LoC is supposed to be a unit of measure for the amount of information.
Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
they will have deteriorated to dust long before the end of this century
I keep seeing this claim on this thread. I'm old enough to have some books around that are 30 years old that I got as a kid. They show no apparent signs of deterioration. I have some of my father's books from the 50's and only the cheapest of those (some pocket-sized cartoon paperbacks) show any signs of pages yellowing or becoming brittle. The regular books are all just fine. I have some books of my grandfather's, mass-market subscription "American Classics", cheap leather bindings, made from 1908-1912 that are similarly fine to read (they're up for sale if you want them).
None of these books have been stored anywhere but typical household bookshelves and cardboard boxes in attics. At my folks' place there's a library full of these, none turning to dust.
My God, it's Full of Source!
OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
I've never seen a vinyl record or and 8 track cassette.
Really though? That sounds facetious... and improbable.
If you would have just stuck with 8-track, I wouldn't have
said anything... but it's next to impossible to exist on
this planet, not be blind, surface from the subterranean
cave you live in occasionally and NOT have seen a
record... somewhere.
Which you could say, if I've never seen one, how do I
know I saw one, if I did. And that's where I say... it's
called anecdotal knowledge. Such as the lion that is
involved in this protracted analogy. The roar and the
sheer ominousness of the creature you would see,
would lead you to believe it was a lion from supposed
knowledge that you should have at this point.
I can mail you an Elvis 8-track if you like. It's in stereo.
};-)
-AI
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion
What's the rationale here? That Amazon and Apple are going to buy and shutdown all the public libraries, including the Library of Congress? There's a fine line between being forward-thinking and being, well, nuts.
In Finland, every publisher is required by law to submit a copy of every printed work published in the country (not just books, but newspapers and magazines as well) to the National Library and a few other university libraries (so the system has redundancy). This has been going on since 1829. I suppose many other countries have similar laws.
This is mostly the case now. Every modern physical ebook reader (Nook, Kobo, Sony, etc) supports EPUB with the sole exception of Kindle. Either Amazon will eventually bow to standards, or the Kindle will ultimately become irrelevant. Format changes have happened before. Barnes & Noble successfully switch from PDB to EPUB. Amazon could do it, if they wanted to. Right now they're in a market position where they don't need to. Of course they're also very, very careful about always referring to their offering as "Kindle books" and never "ebooks". These are not intended to be generic ebooks readable on any reader. They're Kindle books, only readable on devices with Kindle software.
PDF is evil and needs to die as an ebook format. That's already happening, especially for narrative literature. The remaining hold-outs are technical books and designers stuck in a paper mindset. The former will change as the epub standard evolves. The latter will change simply with time, as the old guard retires or dies and are replaced with people who understand how to layout books digitally (if you want a corollary for this, look at the web -- it's been a very long time since professional web sites have had "Best viewed at 1024x768 in Internet Explorer" recommendations, because the old paper-based designers who wanted pixel-perfect control have retired or died, or finally evovled).
Custom apps are simply money grabs, and will die as generic readers become more widespread.
There's plenty of movement on this front. All of the major stores allow publishers to sell their books without DRM. The old-guard publishers are the ones requiring DRM now, and they will eventually be forced to follow the example of the music industry. It's just a matter of time at thi point.
This is probably the biggest hurdle. The Gutenberg project produces high-quality epubs, but they can only handle copyright-free works. So long as there are luddite authors like J.K. Rowling who refuse to make their works available in ebook format, you will never be able to hit 100% coverage. But of course like all things, time will solve this one. In a generation or less, any author will find it unthinkable not to offer ebooks. Assuming they're even able to do so if they wanted.
Compared to what? But there are two ways to look at this one:
I agree, yet disagree. Ebooks still require editing, cover art, layout, marketing, etc. All you really get to save in the production area i
What are the odds of a file created toady being readable in a 100 years?
Pretty high. If your format is plain text, or plain text with extra markup (i.e. still readable without a viewer - like, say, HTML), then I don't see why it would go away. I have some text files around, authored by me, which are over 15 years now and still perfectly readable. With plain text, the only issue is encoding, but we haven't had upheavals in that department in quite a while - ASCII is almost 50 years old, and even Unicode has been around for 20 years now - and Unicode 1.0 was already enough to archive pretty much any work of Western civilization.
It's the massive surge in lion numbers that we should be worrying about.
Boffoonery - downloadable Comedy Benefit for Bletchley Park
> Modern books aren't designed to last hundreds of years.
Really? That's an interesting statement. Of course they're not "designed" to last for hundreds of years, but all new books I've bought the last 20 years or so seems to be of higher quality than the still-very-readable books I have from the 19th and 20th century, and I would expect my new books to last at least a few hundred years.
It's not a full standard (like Microsoft's .NET, only a subset of PDF is standardized). Flowable text requires manual intervention (tagging) that most PDF authors don't do, assuming they even put text in the PDF rather than just use images of text (the latter is all too common). Even when you do have proper flowable text, other elements don't flow nearly as well. You can't change font faces on the fly, or margins, or other layout functionality that should be user-controllable.
Epub, on the other hand, is a complete open standard, essentially being a subset of HTML and CSS in a ZIP container. It has its own flaws, such as lack of MathML support (complex equations will generally be represented by images), but for 99.999% of books it's a better solution.
More importantly, PDF vs. EPUB is more about doing layout the "old way" vs. the "new way". The old way is paper-centric, where designers have pixel-perfect control of every piece of the layout, down to kerning of the fonts if they wish. This is great when you know exactly how your content is going to be viewed (for example, it will always be printed on A4 paper). PDF represents magazines, paper flyers, paper books, desktop publishing, etc, or essentially the print world. EPUB, on the other hand, is built from web standards. It's designed on top of markup that was initially created to empower the end user. You get all the standard buzzwords, like separation of content and display, that you would if you were building a web page. For narrative books, it's pretty straightforward to make the swich from PDF (paper) to EPUB (digital). Technical books are where things get difficult, and require a perspective shift. For example, if you were writing a technical book for print on paper, you'd probably have a lot of tables, sidebars, indexes, etc. When you go to convert that to an ebook, you quickly find that EPUB is somewhat limited on first glance. You're dead set on replicating the tables and sidebars and such from your printed book, so you just say, "Screw it, ship the PDF." But that's paper-centric thinking. In the digital world, that sidebar would become a link off to other data. The tables could still be there, of course, but you'll have to rethink where they fit in the flow of the text so that they render well on smaller devices. Indexes are trivial, of course. And there's a ton of other stuff you can do, as newer readers (iBooks, Nook Color) on more capable devices have the ability to embed other media and provide more interactive experiences than what you'd get from a piece of paper or a PDF. It turns out that if you approach the problem from a digital perspective rather than a paper perspective, you end up with something that looks different but still conveys all of the information you intended, and in a better way for digital devices.
To look at it another way, back in the 90s when everybody was just starting to write web pages, a favorite method for graphic designers was to composite a layout in photoshop and then chop that up into multiple images laid out in a table (or worse, use image maps!), just as they would do if they were creating a magazine or flyer layout. Those sites were horrible. They wouldn't scale if you needed to change font sizes to make them readable, they wouldn't flow with the size of your browser ("Best viewed at 1024x768" my ass!), and they eventually broke once the box model was standardized and it turned out that Internet Explorer got it wrong (oops!). You don't see those kinds of sites today, web pages that attempt to replicate the exact look of a paper product, and the reason is obvious -- the web is not paper, and trying to force it into a paper design is painful for everybody. Ebooks are the way, and designers will learn sooner or later that they can't shoehorn their paper designs into an ebook and have it work.
Authors can publish themselves! Cut out the middle man! It's already happening. Indeed, pirating of books is rampant, I myself have the top 1000 sci-fi books in digital format from a torrent, only took a few minutes to download. The future is here.
Modern libraries do a lot more these days than just lend out books. Libraries are centres for knowledge and learning, they will adapt.