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NRC Study Lowers Hazard Estimate For Nuke Plants

JSBiff writes "With the incident at Fukushima causing much renewed concern about the risks of nuclear power this year, the NY Times brings news that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has released the preliminary version of a safety report due out in April 2012, based upon new science about the behavior of Cesium-137. The report finds that the public health hazards of nuclear accidents at the types of reactor designs currently in common use are lower than previously thought, based upon a better understanding of the science behind earlier estimates."

17 of 168 comments (clear)

  1. TFA by Ironchew · · Score: 4, Insightful

    TFA says that 1-2% of cesium 137 is likely to escape the core in the event of a containment breach, unlike 60% in previous estimates (Most of it dissolves in stagnant water or is deposited on the containment vessel surface). People living in a 10-mile radius would have enough time to evacuate, and cancer estimates within 10 miles went from 1 in 167 previously to 1 in 4348. A rainstorm happening during the meltdown can cause a higher dose to accumulate in small areas.

    1. Re:TFA by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

      If a reactor managed to explode

      Reactors don't explode.

      Unless you pack them full of TNT or some such.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    2. Re:TFA by danlip · · Score: 3, Informative

      Chernobyl exploded - it was a steam explosion, not a nuclear explosion, but it was sufficient to blow apart the building and throw pieces of the core everywhere. Really much worse than a nuclear bomb, since a bomb would burn more of its fuel.

      And there might have been a small nuclear explosion too - there were 2 explosions, and the second might have been nuclear, although it certain isn't clear - the wikipedia article on the Chernobyl disaster discusses this. In any case, the damn thing exploded.

  2. The Trouble with Reports: by newcastlejon · · Score: 2

    Only half the people that know about it, read it.
    Only half the people that read it understand it.
    Only half the people that understand it believe it.
    Only half the people that believe it will agree with it.
    Of those six people, maybe one will actually try and persuade others.

    The rest are as jaded as me, if not more so. I admire the sentiment behind it, but alas I don't think the general populace will be won over by anything larger than a few tens of words. *sigh* If only we could curtail fear-mongering in the media without impinging on journalistic freedom.

    --
    If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
    1. Re:The Trouble with Reports: by spottedkangaroo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      it would make a lot more sense if they could ever get permission to build fast breader reactors and use the nuclear "waste" as fuel in the second type of reactor.

      --
      Imagine if you weren't allowed to use roads because a bus company complained about your driving 3 times. --skunkpussy
  3. Re:isn't it great? by Rising+Ape · · Score: 2

    There've been nearly 15,000 reactor-years of operation worldwide, not 50 years. So "one in ten thousand years" is a bit off, but not spectacularly.

  4. Re:So, which is it?? by gstrickler · · Score: 3, Insightful

    137Cs is dangerous, however, the amount you're likely to be exposed to after a reactor meltdown is significantly lower than previously thought.

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  5. Re:Surprisee, surprisee. Industry whoring. by roman_mir · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No, the real outcasts of society are those, who are trying to hold economic and technological development of society back, from allowing that sort of development to help the society to become more wealthy and affluent by having more and cheaper and safer energy sources, and nuclear is that type of source.

  6. Re:Does the report also find... by BlueMikey · · Score: 2

    And that politicians who apparently went to decent high schools and colleges and graduate schools subsequently forget any science they've learned when they realize that John Q Public not only cannot understand science, but hates people who do.

    Ignorance is bliss.

  7. Re:Surprisee, surprisee. Industry whoring. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Meh... The first was about cases being made for engineering limits being changed over the course of years. Nobody was surprised. Typically hyperbolic writeup.

    The second was about British government PR campaign to contain uneducated hysteria about nuclear power generation. Yes, particularly important when you're looking to build a plant. Typical overstatement by press and (worse) /. summary. Zomg... it's a conspiracy... they're trying to kill us. Let's deal with facts for once, eh?

    The third simply pointed out, with another ridiculously hyperbolic headline, the detectors hadn't been properly maintained in years. They (obviously) went and calibrated them when Fukushima happened... per the article. That calibration meant the readings went down. Per the article. Wow... another "conspiracy" to kill us with nuke plants headline... color me surprised.

    Really... I could find bullshit FUD about nuclear power all day too. What I care about are facts.

  8. Re:Please indicate when linking to NYT paywall by gstrickler · · Score: 2

    It's not a paywall. You can read the article for free for at least 7 days after it's published. Even if if requires an NYT account (it doesn't appear to), you can get a free NYT account. And since almost no one reads /. articles over 3 days old, the 7 day window is plenty for the 99+% of readers who will see this.

    --
    make imaginary.friends COUNT=100 VISIBLE=false
  9. Re:Please indicate when linking to NYT paywall by molo · · Score: 2

    You know you can just clear your nytimes.com cookies to have them forget about the 20 articles you already read, right?

    -molo

    --
    Using your sig line to advertise for friends is lame.
  10. That was very quick! by Idou · · Score: 2

    I am amazed that they were able to gather such specifics so quickly from the Fukushima accident when apparently even the Japanese government still seems to be clueless to the extent of cesium contamination (though, they continue to give out low-ball estimates that do not align with observations in the field . . .). Oh, or maybe this does NOT include lessons learned from Fukushima? Then why the peculiar timing? Perhaps this is just more industry damage control through PR efforts?

    In that case, I am not too interested. I would much rather listen to professors with the balls to yell at the Diet of Japan than looking a the industry/regulators give each other reach arounds . . .

    --
    Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!
    1. Re:That was very quick! by Idou · · Score: 2

      Alright, yes, we should just let the "experts" take care of things, since they NEVER make mistakes. Oh, and this is way too complicated for average citizens . . . readings at 20 meters should be just as accurate as at 1 meter.

      No properties are selling within a 100 mile radius of the plant. You, being enlightened, should profit by buying cheap land from the stupid masses at a discount. You can start by buying my house. Though, I have yet to receive an offer from your ilk. Must have something to do with spewing BS without any consequence does not equate to an actual economic decision.

      --
      Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!
    2. Re:That was very quick! by JSBiff · · Score: 2

      Real Estate prices have everything to do with mass fear among the populace, and prove nothing about the actual risks or hazards of living in the area. Real Estate is about A) Perceptions, and B) Economy (e.g. can anyone *afford* to buy a house, even if they want to).

      Your argument doesn't actually address the science in the report. It's just a statement of your lack of belief in the ability of any expert, ever, to make a correct determination based upon science. So, experts sometimes make mistakes, but that doesn't mean the NRC has made a mistake in this case. It doesn't mean the people running the radiation monitoring in Japan *actually* did make any mistakes.

      As for that article you linked to, it appears to me to be a very, very poor example of journalism, that takes one small fact - TEPCO said that an emergency venting happened one day, but it actually happened the previous day, and makes a big deal out of that. It also declares about the venting, "It is an event that has a huge impact on the environment outside a nuclear power plant." However, it provides no source or basis for that claim. How do they know it will have a huge impact on the environment outside the plant? Wouldn't it be important to know just what type of radioactive material was in the steam which was vented, how much of it, etc? Wouldn't you need to know how much that radioactive material dispersed, and how long its half-life is?

      I'm sorry if I don't believe every poorly backed up alarmist hit-piece in the media that claims that every little thing that happens at a nuclear plant is a terrible, terrible disaster that is being covered up by the government and industry.

      I can't buy your house as I don't live in Japan and have no plans at all to move to Japan, but I will say this - I would be comfortable living within 10 miles of a nuclear plant, and would even be comfortable going to live in an area like the area around Fukushima which has only been (in most parts - IIRC there is one small area where the contamination, for some reason, ended up being much more concentrated than most of the other areas), lightly contaminated by a relatively small quantity of radioactive materials.

  11. Re:Fukushima Death Toll Approaches Zero by formfeed · · Score: 2

    The Fukushima plants were hit with a heavy earthquake. ....

    This is about as bad of scenario as one could imagine, yet there were no public deaths.

    No, no public deaths. Most deaths will be private. And slow enough that it will be impossible to prove that the cancer was caused by the Fukushima accident and not by carcinogenic food additives, pollution, or background radiation (e.g. previous nuclear tests) - All of them cancer sources previously labeled insignificant by the industry, their paid stooges, and some stools on /. who call anyone who questions their 19yo wisdom an unscientific troll.

  12. Based on what real life experimentation? by Idou · · Score: 2

    The Fukushima experiment is still ongoing and will take at least 20 years before the first set of results come in. I think the conclusions from the report are a bit premature and the timing is quite suspicious.

    --
    Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!