Russia Close To Findings On Soyuz and Proton
First time accepted submitter neBelcnU writes "It's still early, but there are findings for the recent losses of a Proton and Soyuz rockets. There was a procedural error in the Proton's flight planning, and the 3rd stage gas-generator is the center of attention in the Soyuz. From the article: 'The Soyuz investigation has not formally issued its findings or recommended corrective actions. A launch schedule for the next manned flight to the International Space Station will not be decided until the commission completes its work.'"
In Soviet Russia rockets launch you!
It is good to see they at least have an idea for what has caused the issue.
I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
As far as I know, the issue with the Proton was entirely software related and relatively simple to correct once it was found. Mostly because the software isn't destroyed during an accident.
The issue with the Soyuz is hardware related and doesn't have that benefit. There is something wrong with the gas generator of the turbo pumps, that pump oxygen and rocket fuel into the burning cambers. (Which is using hydrogen peroxide and potassium permanganate to drive them, just like the old German V2 rocket IIRC.) Without having any leftovers to inspect after the failure, it's going to be much harder to ascertain whether its origin has been found or not. But they should be able to find it.
They just had an ex-astronaut on NPR yesterday talking about how they'd have to evacuate the ISS by mid-November if Soyuz craft weren't flying again by that time.
The ex-astronaut said that was a REALLY short time-frame for an investigation to be conducted and corrections to be made, so he was quite fearful that we'd have to leave the ISS unmanned.
Maybe that won't be the case!
With the first link, the chain is forged.
what would keep some 'rouge' entity (nation or otherwise) from launching themselves into orbit
Damn communists. Always trying to steal our shit.
"Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
De-orbiting it would require a spacecraft docked to it. As far as I know it has no maneuvering capability of its own, and the only delta-V available to modify its orbit (including de-orbiting it) is in the Progress or Soyuz thrust stage (and previously was sometimes assisted by the Shuttle OMS engines).
..
The worst-case rogue scenario would be a rogue nation with a secret launch capability to put something with a compatible docking system into the ISS' orbit. The only country I know of that's close would be China (maybe) and I don't know if the Shenzhou uses a docking system that's compatible with the NASA APAS system.
And you can rest assured that if anyone were making preparations to fly a mission like that, a number of major intel organizations would be asking a lot of questions and making a lot of briefings, so it wouldn't stay secret for long once an actual spacecraft stack starts coming together at a launch facility