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IT Could Have Caught $2 Billion Rogue Trader
superapecommando writes "With the benefit of hindsight, IT experts are claiming that technical countermeasures at Swiss bank UBS could have stopped rogue trader Kweku Adoboli running up a $2 billion loss." If American Express and Visa can mine transaction data and put a stop order on credit cards when you unexpectedly buy gas out of state, it seems like there could be patterns to watch for when the amounts are in the billions, too.
I remember a highly compelling thought experiment published in the New York Times editorial page, back when the economy was first going south - a though experiment which, the authors later revealed, was more real-world practice than experiment.
The way big risks and 'trendy' trades often work is this: if a certain method of investing your pool looks good and other traders in the firm are making big money on it, you have two choices. You can go against the prevailing wisdom, but should you lose then you're the idiot who lost $10 million and you're fired. You can also go with the trend, in which case either you all win together or the entire company (or entire economy) goes down in flames and you're no worse off - in reputation or employment - than anybody else.
My point for bringing this up is that it's not about random idiots going nuts; even if that happens it's just one idiot or one company that dies, and at least they're all the 'rogue' idiots are effectively sociopathic, conflicting entities. The real damage comes when every trader agrees on things; sooner or later it's all coming down, and the rest of us go down with them.
So frankly I think it's *great* news that this guy lost $2 billion; at least it means UBS isn't so locked-down that individual traders can't take risks. Better they learn from giving traders too much freedom than we all learn from them being given or being taught too little.