New Images of Tumbling US Satellite From Theirry Legaullt

The BBC reports that "An amateur astronomer has recorded images of the out-of-control US satellite as it tumbles back to Earth. Theirry Legault, from Paris, captured the video as the satellite passed over northern France on 15 September. The six-tonne, 20-year-old spacecraft has fallen out of orbit and is expected to crash somewhere on Earth on or around 24 September. The US space agency says the risk to life from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is 1 in 3,200. Mr Legault, an engineer, used a specially designed camera to record the tumbling satellite through his 14-inch telescope, posting the footage on his Astrophotography website." (Previous, equally impressive work from Legault include his photos of Atlantis's final re-entry and the ISS, sun and moon in one shot.)

Comments

1 in 3200?

[bennomatic]

Oh... my... GOD! Does that mean that 2.1 million people are going to die?

Re:1 in 3200?

[Joce640k]

That's still orders of magnitude higher than ANY terrorist threat, why isn't the country in a massive panic?

Re:1 in 3200?

[kryliss]

It's a great big universe and we're all kinda puny, like a tiny little speck about the size of Micky Rooney........ (Animaniacs)

Re:1 in 3200?

[Grishnakh]

No human has ever been killed by a meteorite, at least within historical record. The only known case of a death is a dog that was killed in Egypt in the early 20th century by a meteor. The number of known injuries (as with the Alabama woman in 1955) can probably be counted on one hand. It's really an astronomically small possibility that any one person might be killed by a meteorite.

However, interestingly, your chances of dying from an asteroid strike are actually much higher than many other accidents which have claimed far more lives throughout history. In fact, your chances of dying by asteroid are greater than your chances of dying by terrorist attack, even though no one (known) has ever died by asteroid, while thousands have died from terrosts: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/10/13/death-by-meteorite/

This is because, if a giant asteroid were to strike the earth, it could wipe out a whole city, or even the entire species (depending on the size and speed of the asteroid). This isn't just some vague possibility, it's actually happened before: just ask the dinosaurs. They're all extinct (except for the birds) thanks to a giant asteroid that struck modern-day Mexico. It's only a matter of time before another big one hits, and while we watch its approach (assuming we even see it before it hits us), we'll be kicking ourselves for not developing a program to handle this threat. There's even one asteroid already known, called Apophis, which has made several close approaches. Whether a big one comes in 10 years or 1000, I have no confidence humans will develop the technology in time to counter such a threat.

Re:THIERRY

[oldmac31310]

First thing I noticed. But do please note that the BBC has it spelled two different ways. Sloppy.

Previously hit by space debris

[popoutman]

Thierry Legault has done some wonderful captures of satellites as they've gone overhead. It's interesting to see the slow tumble of this particular satellite, which confirms that it's pretty much out of action (even though we already know that). Apparently the satellite had a possible minor collision with debris in 2007 (see page 15 of 52 of http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/securing-the-skies-full-report-1.pdf ) which is the likely reason that this satellite is tumbling.

nobody has ever been hurt

[sl4shd0rk]

"...by objects re-entering from space."

Except for these people:
http://www.switched.com/2009/06/15/german-boy-hit-by-meteorite-lives-to-tell-about-it/

http://www.newschannel9.com/news/meteorite-996599-human-first.html

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/8289863.Sussex_man_hit_by_meteorite/

Re:nobody has ever been hurt

[geekoid]

which part of "re-entry" do you not get?
well, the core concept, obviously.

Summary

[rossdee]

"The six-tonne, 20-year-old spacecraft has fallen out of orbit"

Not yet. It is still in orbit, though a rapidly decaying one due to atmospheric drag.

"and is expected to crash somewhere on Earth on or around 24 September"

Its pretty much certain that it is going to crash on earth. There is no chance of it hitting any other planet.

Re:How about a mobile apps to notify the public?

[I Read Good]

NASA could charge $.99 for the app... they'd be launching shit again in no time

57 degrees!

[Stele]

Shit! It's 56 today so I'm safe but tomorrow it's supposed to hit 58 and 60 on Saturday! I wish the pieces were landing today - could be a close call.

Re:Why no sound?

[MagicM]

It's far away. The sound comes later.

Re:Why no sound?

[pixelpshr]

Where is my kaboom? Where is my earth-shattering kaboom?

Re:Anyone know why the satelite is out of control?

[popoutman]

To my knowledge, the amount of fuel remaining was used to guarantee that it would re-enter sooner rather than later (a 25kg of fuel burn was executed at the end of 2005). There were plans mooted to recover the UARS using the Shuttle, but this fell by the wayside with various budget cuts and safety concerns. It appears that there was no need to have de-orbit fuel kept when the shuttle was the recovery vehicle, and when the plans fell through there wasn't enough fuel left to de-orbit in a known manner. The advantage of using the fuel in hte meantime allowed a few more years of data gathering. The working altitude for UARS was never going to have a safe parking orbit, and the orbit of the ISS was close enough in 2010 that an avoidance manouevre was needed to reduce the possibility of an impact. The spacecraft was left in a known stable attitude, but as the tumbling has shown, there has been an outside influence to cause this level of rotation. Maybe a pebble-sized item collided, and this is what's causing the tens-of-seconds wobble.

Re:Solar Warming

[geekoid]

No, it's an example of the fact you don't know what global warming is.