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A Third of Sun-Like Stars May Have Warm Earth Analogs

The Bad Astronomer writes "An astronomer studying data from the first 136 days of the Kepler observatory missions has calculated that as many as 34% of all Sun-like stars (abstract) may have Earth-sized planets orbiting in their habitable zones, where conditions are right for life as we know it. I have some reservations with his numbers, but they do match other studies. There may be 15 billion warm, Earth-sized worlds in our galaxy alone."

188 comments

  1. Relax. . . by dtmos · · Score: 2

    A Third of Sun-Like Stars May Have Warm Earth Analogs

    Don't worry; our knowledge of superior digital technology will save us.

    Thanks -- try the veal! I'm here all week.
    H'mm, pretty small crowd for a Thursday. . . .

    1. Re:Relax. . . by Chapter80 · · Score: 2

      "There may be 15 billion warm, Earth-sized worlds in our galaxy alone."

      This is provably wrong.
      We're here, so clearly they are not alone.

    2. Re:Relax. . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like you are reading it wrong. Read again! They are referencing the fact that they are NOT including OTHER galaxies. Not that the 15 billion are alone. Which would contradict itself in the fact that 15 billion can't be alone together WITHOUT Earth even.

    3. Re:Relax. . . by bloodhawk · · Score: 1

      whooosh!

    4. Re:Relax. . . by Frenzied+Apathy · · Score: 1

      [faceslap]

      --
      The cake is a lie.
    5. Re:Relax. . . by ackthpt · · Score: 1

      I'm hoping for something like Ursa Minor Beta ...

      The rich and sunny planet Ursa Minor Beta has the quite peculiar property that most of its surface consists of subtropic coastline. Even more peculiar, on this world it's always Saturday afternoon, just right before the beach bars close. Light City, the only city on Ursa Minor Beta, which can only be reached by plane, is the very place where the editorial offices of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reside. A further anomaly in Light City is that the Lalamatine district, just behind the beach, is the only place on the planet not to enjoy a perpetual Saturday afternoon. Instead it is always early evening, with cooling breezes - this is where the nightclubs are located.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    6. Re:Relax. . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Give the guy a break, it took me a few times to realise it was supposed to be funny.
      It's not.

    7. Re:Relax. . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, I'm going to take my cue on what's funny from the guy who admits he's slow on the draw.

    8. Re:Relax. . . by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      I'm hoping for something like Ursa Minor Beta ...

      The rich and sunny planet Ursa Minor Beta has the quite peculiar property that most of its surface consists of subtropic coastline. Even more peculiar, on this world it's always Saturday afternoon, just right before the beach bars close. Light City, the only city on Ursa Minor Beta, which can only be reached by plane, is the very place where the editorial offices of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reside. A further anomaly in Light City is that the Lalamatine district, just behind the beach, is the only place on the planet not to enjoy a perpetual Saturday afternoon. Instead it is always early evening, with cooling breezes - this is where the nightclubs are located.

      Hey, you could have given us some idea where that quote's from!

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    9. Re:Relax. . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hey, you could have given us some idea where that quote's from!

      Did you not RTFP?

      ... very place where the editorial offices of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reside.

    10. Re:Relax. . . by hazah · · Score: 1

      Are you retarded?

    11. Re:Relax. . . by jafac · · Score: 1

      I just *know* that since my macos classic g3 macbook died, I'm not going to be able to hack-into the alien's computer system and disable their shields, and they're totally going to take over the planet and eat us all.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  2. 15 billion, but 0 within reach by G3ckoG33k · · Score: 2, Informative

    15 billion, but 0 within reach... So much for that info.

    1. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by arth1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Natalie Portman might be out of reach too, but I still like to know whether she exists.

    2. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by ae1294 · · Score: 1

      15 billion, but 0 within reach... So much for that info.

      I donno, lets just start shooting neutrinos at them and maybe we're find one that likes a good war just like us!

    3. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Natalie Portman might be out of reach too, but I still like to know whether she exists.

      Or where she lives... /dothecreep

    4. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by guspasho · · Score: 2

      By your reasoning none of us should be interested in what you have to say.

    5. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Out of reach NOW: yes.

      Later...

      Talk about an incentive plan.

    6. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by deathcloset · · Score: 0

      I love the caliber of cynics we have on slashdot! After all, skepticism is knowledge's greatest ally, but logic is it's greatest friend.

      0 within 'our' reach, certainly.

      But what about 'their' reach?

      "The Indonesian province of West Papua is home to an estimated 44 uncontacted tribal groups.[16]"

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Guinea#People

    7. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Kjella · · Score: 1

      So far there's not been much reason to try reaching anything. If we can narrow down some of those 15 billion to be actually earth-like, where we really could colonize a whole planet I'd say you have reason.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    8. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      How sad for you. I currently have one within reach.

    9. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      Visionless defeatest quitter. Wimp.

      Reaching them is merely an engineering problem.

    10. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by RicktheBrick · · Score: 2

      Not only are they out of reach to us, we are probably out of reach to them too. The probabilities of any one outside of our solar system knowing that we exist is very small. Now suppose someone on a planet 1,000 light years away was watching us 1,000 years ago. Now suppose they had sufficient technology to determine that we were an inhabitable world with vast oceans. They would know by the absent of radio energy that we did not possess that technology yet. But knowing it would take 1,000 years for their radio signal to reach us I would assume that they would broadcast a signal with all of their knowledge. It would cost them so little and would be a great help to us. I hope that we will do the same if we can determine that there is an inhabitable world within a 1,000 light years of us. I am guessing here but just suppose we knew of a planet 1,000 light years away and just suppose we put a satellite that was just a giant venetian blind somewhere between our sun and their planet. I would think that it could blot out our entire sun for a period of time. I would think that we could signal them just by turning it off and on. Therefore they would not even have to have a radio receiver as they would just need a telescope. So we could have received that signal about 500 years ago so they could have start signaling us 1,500 years ago at a 1,000 light years away and we would be receiving that signal for the last 500 years. I know that this would take a lot of knowledge since the satellite would have to be directly in our line of sight with their sun. But I would think that even a world that is only 50 years more advanced than we are would possess such knowledge. With this technology any star that is visible with the naked eye could have started signaling us thousands of years ago and we would have at least known of it for those many years.

    11. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by david.given · · Score: 1

      Surely you mean 3: the warm Earth-like world we're currently standing on (well, in my case, sitting), plus Mars, plus Venus. Both of which are pretty easy to get at using current technology. Some of the gas giant moons probably count too, but they're a special case as they're not in Sol's habitable zone.

      Just because the planet's the right mass and about the right distance from its primary doesn't necessarily mean we'd find it habitable...

    12. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      If you don't bother to look for something, you're not going to find it.

    13. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let's wait for their reply first before shooting the neutrinos.

    14. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by fferreres · · Score: 1

      She's not out of reach. You are not confident enough.

      --
      unfinished: (adj.)
    15. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by a_hanso · · Score: 1

      Several observations of a Portman-shaped shadow is not enough to infer the existence of Natalie Portman. There is still a possibility that the current exoplanet discoveries may someday be recorded in history alongside Lowell's Martian canals.

    16. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      She's not out of reach. You are not confident enough.

      Someone's been reading Norman Vincent Peale, I take it?

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    17. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Visionless defeatest quitter. Wimp.

      Reaching them is merely an engineering problem.

      Well that's everything solved then, it's just a question of details.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    18. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by YouDieAtTheEnd · · Score: 1

      Whoah nelly, I think you need to reel that in and pour a little fact juice on it before you go all L. Ron on us.

      First, distances my friend. 1,000 ly is way over the top for this thought experiment. You probably want to start with something a little more manageable, somewhere around 100 ly. The reason is that once you get up around 1,000 ly you're already dealing with millions of stars and, as it happens, that's about the average thickness of our galaxy. With 100 ly we're down to a more manageable 3,500 stars, about 500 of which are G type (our Sun's range).

      Second, this isn't the 17th centrury. The most effective way to communicate with an alien race is not going to be a heliograph. Sure, if you wanted to be over-the-top-even-a-backyard-kid-with-a-telescope-can-see-you we could build a satellite the size of Jupiter and blot out our sun in irregular patterns. Might be good for a bit of a laugh, we could send them Yo Momma So Fat jokes in Morse code (can you imagine the looks on their faces when they figured that one out? Hah!). If you really wanted to stick with optical communication it would be far simpler to just build a big fat space laser, the light would be much more coherent and we'd have greater bandwidth for the transmission since we could more easily modulate the light. Sticking with reality though, it's a million times easier to build large radio transmitters. After all, it's something we're already really good at and the requirements for power and location are more trivial to obtain. A massive, artificial radio source is going to be just as noticeable as a blinking star if not more so.

      Third, we don't want to talk to the new kids on the block. I'll put this simply, if they are just about as advanced as we were 500 years ago then we can't help them anyways. Imagine if Galileo Galilei had received a message from the stars in 1610! Making the huge leap that he might be able to record the message let alone decode it (maybe it was just a Yo Momma joke), what on Earth is he going to do with it? 'Oh hey Pope Urban, guess what? The Earth revolves around the Sun aaaaand there's life on other planets.' 'Yes I'm sure, they sent a message about your mother...' Fact is, we only want to talk to them if they're actually going to understand the concept of communicating with an entirely different life form. We, as a civilization, are not even at that point.

      In conclusion, dream on RicktheBrick, dream on. Just make sure you've got some knowledge to put behind those dreams and maybe one day venetian blinds in outer space will be a reality, if only to make fun of more primitive alien societies.

    19. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You make a reasonable argument there but I can see at least one important catch... money/resources ;-) doesn't it always come down to that

      Just because a civilization could make such a device it doesn't mean that the device will be made. Just looking at the current costs of making a satellite on earth I find it very unlikely that anyone on earth would be willing to fund such a satellite (at least not until the costs of making a satellite that big dramatically reduces). Then again who can say for sure that a possible alien civilization would even think the same way about using resources like we humans do... (xeno psychologically isn't something anyone can be certain of).

    20. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by YouDieAtTheEnd · · Score: 1

      There are over 500 G type stars within 100 ly. According to this study, about 170 would have potentially habitable planets orbiting them. The point is not that we should attempt to travel to these planets, barring a fundamental rewrite of the laws of physics or an unfathomable leap in technology, we won't be going there any time soon. The key is these worlds may support intelligent life, life capable of communication, communication that may be established within 200 years at the outside maximum. A dozen of these stars are within 20 to 30 ly where we could see communication within a lifetime. The odds that intelligent life capable of radio communication exists on any life bearing planet may be slim but if it does, the odds that that life is far in advance of us in terms of age and possibly technological ability as well are orders of magnitude larger.

      Remember, we are still on the leading edge of our scientific advances. Radio communication has only been known about for a little over 130 years, not only does this mean that we are still in our infancy but that our earliest communications may now just be garnering a response. Now more than ever we need to dedicate more attention to our local stellar neighborhood. All promising, near-by stars should be, at the least, monitored continuously and ideally we should be transmitting focused signals as well.

      Given how much more we have learned about the structure of our galaxy and the stars that compose it over the last decade we can no longer ignore the sky above our heads. We have already seen the shores of the New World, an ocean may stand between us but men have cast their dreams upon the open waters before and we shall do so again.

    21. Re:15 billion, but 0 within reach by fferreres · · Score: 1

      Who's this Norman? I really meant it.

      --
      unfinished: (adj.)
  3. Well, 15 billion Earth-like planets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    That's sure a lot of shards for one galaxy. How do I move my character to one of the cool ones?

    1. Re:Well, 15 billion Earth-like planets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's true. Or at least, it's true that Mormons believe that. I wouldn't know myself, I haven't logged off Real Life in a while, and the devs haven't been talking much lately, though if you listen to the Mormons, they say that the developers talk to us all the time.

  4. Analogs? by slapout · · Score: 1

    Not after the MPAA finds out

    --
    Coder's Stone: The programming language quick ref for iPad
  5. Liquid Water by Siberwulf · · Score: 0

    Why do we still put a mandate of "liquid water" in the hospitable zone requirement? Are we really naive enough to think that life out there CAN'T POSSIBLY FORM without water?

    Am I just totally nuts here?

    1. Re:Liquid Water by Bucky24 · · Score: 1

      By "hospitable zone requirement" do they mean hospitable for life in general, or hospitable for humans? If life in general then that's ridiculous, of course life can form without water. If hospitable for humans, then I'd think water would be a pretty important thing to have.

      --
      All the world's a CPU, and all the men and women merely AI agents
    2. Re:Liquid Water by mooingyak · · Score: 3, Informative

      That's the whole "as we know it" part.

      It's not that anyone thinks its impossible for life to from under other conditions, but that we do know of one set of conditions that worked. Plus, I always thought habitable meant habitable for humans.

      --
      William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
    3. Re:Liquid Water by Surt · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Liquid water is the foundation of a lot of interesting chemistry, and also a good temperature regulator. Life getting by without it would likely have to endure much more significant temperature swings.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    4. Re:Liquid Water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      exactly, if we can't invade it and kill the local population, what's the point?

    5. Re:Liquid Water by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      By "hospitable zone requirement" do they mean hospitable for life in general, or hospitable for humans? If life in general then that's ridiculous, of course life can form without water. If hospitable for humans, then I'd think water would be a pretty important thing to have.

      No, they mean 'hospitable' for carbon based life-as-we-know-it. It doesn't have to have air conditioning or WIFI and thus may not be habitable for humans.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    6. Re:Liquid Water by gstoddart · · Score: 2

      Why do we still put a mandate of "liquid water" in the hospitable zone requirement? Are we really naive enough to think that life out there CAN'T POSSIBLY FORM without water?

      Someone asks this damned question EVERY time this topic comes up ... the answer is always the same: We don't know how to look for life that we can't say anything about it's chemical composition.

      By looking for liquid water, we limit the search to places where something like us could exist.

      How do you propose we look for a life form which has no chemical similarity to us? By your standard, we could look at anything, and say "well, there could be some unfathomable form of life there" ... which doesn't do anything to narrow the field.

      Your way isn't science ... it's just pointing and saying "maybe". It has no useful input to actually looking for anything. So, unless you can provide some mechanism still using the scientific method to search for life in the galaxy that DOESN'T look for parameters similar to our own ... it's pretty much a non-starter.

      Sure, there could be Jupiter Methane Bats ... and Rigel 7 could be teeming with Silicon Sharks ... but we have no meaningful way to look for them.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    7. Re:Liquid Water by Jeng · · Score: 1

      Water or not, I believe that life will still require a liquid of some sort to form in.

       

      --
      Don't know something? Look it up. Still don't know? Then ask.
    8. Re:Liquid Water by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Water or not, I believe that life will still require a liquid of some sort to form in.

      That's not true even for Earth. Think small.

    9. Re:Liquid Water by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      As a biochemist, the requirement for liquid water seems somewhat reasonable to me. If you want life, you need a chemistry that supplies a minimum level of complexity - you need information storage, you need thermodynamics that can be balanced quite tightly, and from all our knowledge of chemistry, there is not much room for something like that outside of carbon chemistry in liquid water. I wouldn't categorically rule it out, but it is a pretty good bet.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    10. Re:Liquid Water by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      You're too short-sighted. It's not about merely killing natives; we want oil, and you need carbon-based lifeforms for oil to form.

    11. Re:Liquid Water by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      I'm thinking small. The smallest know organisms live in a mine in Northern California. I don't think they can survive without water any more then any other life on earth.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    12. Re:Liquid Water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Since we have absolutely no clue how life started on earth, it pretty naive to think that somehow being in the "habitable zone" is sufficient to cause "spontaneous generation" to occur.

    13. Re:Liquid Water by Jeng · · Score: 1

      Thinking real small here, what is inside cells? Liquid.

      Ok smaller, I guess would be viruses, but are they technically life?

      --
      Don't know something? Look it up. Still don't know? Then ask.
    14. Re:Liquid Water by gstoddart · · Score: 1

      Sure, it seems reasonable ... but the universe is big and vast and complex and sneaky.

      Essentially, we can only restrict ourselves to what we know. We can't rule out the possibility of some of this stuff, but we can't seriously consider it because it's basically science fiction since we have nothing to suggest it. So, from a science perspective, the answer is to ignore it.

      If you can have a cloud of alcohol in space, and all of the other wacky stuff we see ... I'd be reluctant to be the one to say "you simply can't have life without water".

      For all we know, there's something living in a sea of liquid methanol right now ... drunk, happy, and utterly alien. :-P (Or, if you evolved in methanol, you'd likely not be drunk from it, but you get my point.)

      The point is, there is no way to search for alien life that is so alien as to be something we can't make any guesses about. I'll certainly defer to your chemistry knowledge ... but I wouldn't bet against the universe. :-P

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    15. Re:Liquid Water by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      Who said the life couldn't form? It's just heaps easier to start with what we know.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    16. Re:Liquid Water by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      As I said, I would not categorically rule it out. But we know a lot of chemistry outside of biochemistry defining life here, and most of those chemistries do not really support complexity. I am open to be surprised and would be glad to, but I would not bet my house on it.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    17. Re:Liquid Water by arth1 · · Score: 1

      You look in the wrong spot - there are cryophiles that live at temperatures far below that of liquid water.

      When there aren't any liquids, make your own!

    18. Re:Liquid Water by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Thinking real small here, what is inside cells? Liquid.

      That doesn't imply that they need a liquid to form in as per the GP. There are bacteria that combine hard ice with other materials to produce an antifreeze solution for their internal needs.

    19. Re:Liquid Water by qeveren · · Score: 1

      Huh? There are no living things on Earth that we are aware of that can exist in a living state without water. I'm not sure what you mean by 'think small', as even virii (who's life status is arguable) are inert bits of junk without water.

      --
      Don't just stand there, get that other dog!
    20. Re:Liquid Water by Jeng · · Score: 1

      Yes, but do you really believe that those bacteria were formed with that ability or developed that ability over the years?

      I say that liquid is necessary because otherwise it is really hard to move around resources internally. Although I guess it could occur within a gas also, but a solid is very unlikely.

      --
      Don't know something? Look it up. Still don't know? Then ask.
    21. Re:Liquid Water by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      Did they originate in ice? I find it hard to believe. Just because there is not liquid water now, I'm sure there had to have been at some point in their existence.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    22. Re:Liquid Water by FailedTheTuringTest · · Score: 1

      Why do we still put a mandate of "liquid water" in the hospitable zone requirement?

      It's not a "mandate", but it's a way of identifying the first and most likely places to look, for two reasons:

      1) Water is necessary for "life as we know it", and we have a good idea of some indicators of life-as-we-know-it that we could observe at a great distance. We have no clue how to recognise life-as-we-DON'T-know-it from a great distance, we just don't know what to look for.

      2) There is actually good reason to think that there is a high probability that alien life might be based on the same chemistry as life on Earth. Life on Earth is mostly made of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, which are also three of the four most common elements in the whole universe -- the fourth being helium, which doesn't react with anything so doesn't make any interesting chemistry. And out of all of the elements on the periodic table, carbon forms more compounds than all of the other elements combined. So our biology is based on the most common and most readily-combining elements in the universe, which suggests that we are unlikely to be unique.

    23. Re:Liquid Water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's a good wikipedia article about altenative biochemistries including alternative solvents:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Ammonia

    24. Re:Liquid Water by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Why do we still put a mandate of "liquid water" in the hospitable zone requirement? Are we really naive enough to think that life out there CAN'T POSSIBLY FORM without water? Am I just totally nuts here?

      The only form of life we have actual knowledge of requires water, so it's not that unreasonable a requirement.

      You might as well complain about only looking for life on planets, rather stars or scatterings of space dust, you can't absolutely rule out life existing there either.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    25. Re:Liquid Water by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Sure, there could be Jupiter Methane Bats

      You say "could" like there's any doubt. If you've not heard the Jovian Methane Bats squeaking at twilight, you must walk around with your fingers in your ears. They're everywhere, I tell you, everywhere!

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    26. Re:Liquid Water by YouDieAtTheEnd · · Score: 1

      of course life can form without water.

      Where the heck do you kids get these ideas from. There is no known living thing on Earth that can function without the presence of water. There is a possibility that some form of life could be built around a different molecule but that's all just theory and conjecture until it's observed.

    27. Re:Liquid Water by jeppen · · Score: 1

      Your way isn't science ... it's just pointing and saying "maybe". It has no useful input to actually looking for anything.

      A chemistry professor sitting on a rock in the sun for long enough will mostly decompose into simpler structures. Life does, in different ways, create complexity, such as complex molecules, seasonal growth patterns and greater diversity in colour. A planet teeming with life should display a number of differing signatures from a comparable barren planet regardless of whether that life resembles ours not. You just need to look for complexity!

  6. makes sense by nimbius · · Score: 1

    analog has always seemed warmer to me.

    --
    Good people go to bed earlier.
  7. And what proportion of stars are sun-like? by LordNacho · · Score: 1

    And how many stars are there?

    Someone do my math for me, I'm busy working.

    1. Re:And what proportion of stars are sun-like? by Macharius · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Given a population of 200-400 billion stars in the Mikly Way, 7.6% are similar to ours for 15-30 billion stars... 1/3 of which would be 5-10 billion stars purportedly hosting planets capable of supporting life as we know it.

    2. Re:And what proportion of stars are sun-like? by Kickasso · · Score: 1

      Billions and billions of stars!

    3. Re:And what proportion of stars are sun-like? by LordNacho · · Score: 1

      And that's just in the Milky Way!

      Well, still hoping to find signs of life outside of Earth during my lifetime then. In fact, lots of interesting instruments seem to be going up, so I'm definitely hopeful.

    4. Re:And what proportion of stars are sun-like? by sunspot42 · · Score: 1

      Given a population of 200-400 billion stars in the Mikly Way, 7.6% are similar to ours for 15-30 billion stars...

      And, keep in mind, a star doesn't have to be all that similar to ours to host life. A majority of the stars in our galaxy are much smaller than our sun, but most of them also have habitable zones plenty big enough to hold one or more planets (or moons) with earthlike surface conditions.

      These smaller stars also have the advantage of longer lifespans. Red dwarf stars born a billion years before the sun will still be shining on their planets a billion years after our sun has died.

      Stars larger than our sun have much larger habitable zones, so could in theory play host to a disproportionate percentage of all habitable planets. Life wouldn't have as much time to evolve on those worlds, though it isn't clear yet just how long it takes for life to evolve into the kind of complex forms which have dominated here on earth the past ~500 million years.

      Well in excess of 50% of the stars in our galaxy likely could play host to habitable worlds. We won't have a good idea of the final number until we're able to get a more complete sampling of smaller terrestrial-planet sized worlds (including moons).

      The findings so far are making the Fermi Paradox somewhat more disturbing, though...

  8. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by halivar · · Score: 2

    Well, we have to send someone to go look for those warm-earth analogs. Eh... why not? Sure.

  9. I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones...

    1) We will have the technology to inhabit "unihabital planets" long before we have the technology to REACH goldilock planets.

    2) If the plan is just to find life- I know we look at planets like ours- becuase we know how to look for life similar to ours as oppossed to other theoretical life forms. BUT- odds are- there are probably a thousand life forms that don't appear anything like earth-forms for every one that does.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  10. Typo in summart by guspasho · · Score: 1

    Analogs? So that 1/3 are rocking turntables while the other 2/3 are all about the CDs or mp3s?

    1. Re:Typo in summart by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I really hope you don't think it was a typo, such poor knowledge of the english language would just be sad.

    2. Re:Typo in summart by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Analog is the normal American English spelling, for both noun and adjective.

    3. Re:Typo in summart by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      See - this is the problem with the US habit of dropping the 'unnecessary U', you lose entire words because of it.

      Analogue is the 'correct' spelling to describe something not digital for example.

      Analog means "an object, concept or situation which in some way resembles a different situation".

      It's the same deal with armour and armor - 2 distinct words in UK English.

       

    4. Re:Typo in summart by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      He's probably just English, or Canadian, or Australian, where analog is not a accepted spelling variant of analogue.

    5. Re:Typo in summart by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Analogue is the 'correct' spelling to describe something not digital for example.

      Analog means "an object, concept or situation which in some way resembles a different situation".

      What on earth are you talking about? I'm not British, but I'm pretty sure there's only one spelling, "analogue", and they mean the same thing. If something isn't digital, it's analog(ue), and that means "an object, concept or situation which in some way resembles a different situation". There's no difference. What did you think analog (in terms of electronics) means? It means the same thing it does for anything else, one thing resembling another. In electronics, it's generally done with voltage (though it can also be done with other things like current, frequency, etc.); the voltage level corresponds linearly to some other thing, such as sound frequency, some object being measured, etc.

      Besides, if the word sounds exactly the same, then it should be spelled exactly the same too. It's pretty stupid to have two words that sound exactly the same, mean nearly the same thing, and are spelled differently, as you would only be able to tell the difference in written form. We get around that with some of our more famous examples of different words sounding the same, like "lose" and "loose" (although these actually are pronounced differently if you're not lazy) or "two", "too", and "to" because in these examples, the words have totally different meanings, and sometimes even different parts of speech, so it's pretty easy to tell them apart by context. With "armor" and "armour" this wouldn't be the case.

      Finally, I think you're wrong about armour/armor anyway. This says they're the same, and "armour" is the chiefly British spelling:
      http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/armor#English
      Same goes for analog:
      http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/analog

    6. Re:Typo in summart by guspasho · · Score: 1

      My understanding was it was the other way around. Analog was "not digital" and analogue was as in "analogous to".

    7. Re:Typo in summart by xstonedogx · · Score: 1

      As far as I know we still have both words.

  11. RTFM by tepples · · Score: 2

    if you listen to the Mormons, they say that the developers talk to us all the time.

    What the developers have to say is all there in the manual. Or at least it's supposed to be. Mormons think there are a bunch of other manuals, and Catholics add a few chapters, but other followers of Christ are under the impression that those manuals are uninspired and misleading.

  12. Which Actually Means... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There may be 15 billion Earth-like worlds with aliens who don't know or can't accept population control, looking to acquire new real estate and resources to satisfy the ever-increasing demand that is putting a terrible strain on their homeworld.

  13. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't 'see' the obsession with Earth sized planets. A Jupiter hosting 20+ moons in the 'Goldilocks' zone will provide many possible habitats.

    Planetary science and exobiology is immature yet. It needs time and a really big telescope.

  14. possibly habitable and those out of reach by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    True, but I was so disappointed at the ratio between possibly habitable and those out of reach... You see, I want to visit those places, in my lifetime... :)

    1. Re:possibly habitable and those out of reach by Eponymous+Hero · · Score: 1

      ok. try DMT or LSD. good to go, hooah

      --
      insensitive clod overlords obligatory xkcd car analogy russian reversals whoosh pedant fanbois ftfy in 3...2...1..PROFIT
  15. Need an analog real estate agent phone #! by NikeHerc · · Score: 0

    Man, I am so ready to move to an analog world!

    --
    Circle the wagons and fire inward. Entropy increases without bounds.
    1. Re:Need an analog real estate agent phone #! by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Another analog guy in a digital world? Greetings, brother!

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
  16. Warm Earth Analogs by rossdee · · Score: 1

    Which proves the existance of FTL travel since without it, even those issues editted by the great John W Campbell won't have reached beyond the closest handful of stars...

    1. Re:Warm Earth Analogs by AJWM · · Score: 1

      Ha! I don't know how many others will get it, but as someone who has been reading Analog since the Campbell days and was recently inducted into the MAFIA*, I appreciated it.

      (* Members Appear Frequently In Analog, or Makes Appearances Frequently etc, depending on who you ask.)

      Cheers

      --
      -- Alastair
  17. But... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "There may be 15 billion warm, Earth-sized worlds in our galaxy alone."

    - But can they run Linux?

    1. Re:But... by ThatMegathronDude · · Score: 1

      Imagine a beowulf cluster of these...

  18. These are unconfirmed candidates by Hentes · · Score: 1

    The existence of these planets is yet to be confirmed. There are currently only two planets confirmed to be in the habitable zone.

  19. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by xevioso · · Score: 0

    He is a Mormon. Mormons believe that Jesus walked among Native American Indian tribes, and that there are lost cities in America. The Book of Mormon describes three heavily populated, literate, advanced civilizations in the Americas. The book primarily deals with the Nephites and the Lamanites, who it claims existed in the Americas from about 600 BC to AD 400. It also deals with the rise and fall of the Jaredite nation, which the Book of Mormon claims came from the Old World shortly after the fall of the Tower of Babel. This is silly stuff. We do not need a person who believes this running our country. Beliefs matter. Don't vote for kooks.

  20. May by englishknnigits · · Score: 1

    A third of Sun-Like stars may have spaghetti monsters hiding in their solar systems.

    1. Re:May by bronney · · Score: 1

      but are they the "flying" ones...?

    2. Re:May by englishknnigits · · Score: 1

      They may be.

  21. And then there's the Fermi Paradox by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why aren't they here yet? Even if a very small portion of those has intelligent life, at least some of those would be millions of years ahead of us in technology. Even if there are no higher physics that can shortcut light speed, they should be here by now. That leaves two options: They are here and are watching behind the equivalent of a bird blind, or technological civilizations invariably self destruct.

    1. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by jbohumil · · Score: 1

      There are several other possibilities, I tend to favor the simulation hypothesis, if for no other reason that it has a certain postmodern aesthetic to it I appreciate.

    2. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Any civilization smart enough and advanced enough to travel to far-away star systems probably comes to the conclusion that interfering with a non-spacefaring species' development is a bad idea, and develops a Prime Directive forbidding it, and only allowing observation.

      It's also possible that one or a group of civilizations this wise have also decided to intercede in case a civilization that's not as wise develops interstellar travel technology and tries to break the Directive.

    3. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by FunkSoulBrother · · Score: 1

      Maybe we're first.

    4. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Like any civilization smart enough and advanced enough to travel to lands half a world away probably comes to the conclusion that interfering with more primitive civilizations' development is a bad idea?

      Oh, wait...

      Your hypothesis is lacking example.

    5. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Building a wooden boat and crossing an ocean isn't much of a feat technologically. And I don't see how the Europeans interfering with the pre-Columbian civilizations helped out those civilizations any. It was good for the Europeans, but the natives got screwed.

      As for examples, that would be pretty hard considering we don't know any advanced civilizations to ask about the subject (and no, we aren't advanced, we're primitive and barbaric).

    6. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by mark-t · · Score: 1

      Building a wooden boat and crossing an ocean isn't much of a feat technologically

      Not by today's standards, sure.... by standards back then? And considering the number of people that died trying? *HUGE*.

    7. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Compared to visiting other star systems, it's nothing.

    8. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by sunspot42 · · Score: 1

      Unless hyperlight travel is actually possible, maybe they don't travel because nobody wants to be away from their home system for decades (or centuries) on a very expensive trip to visit some primitives.

      If you have simulation technology that's sophisticated enough, you don't have to physically visit another world in order to experience it. Maybe you send probes, model the world, and then visit it whenever you want from the comfort of your own living room. So, maybe advanced civilizations are visiting us - and every other inhabited and uninhabited world - constantly, but only in their own simulators.

      I mean, why travel for 50 years to visit one world when in 50 minutes you could visit a dozen?

    9. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by mark-t · · Score: 1

      And visiting other star systems may be nothing compared to technologies we have not even imagined yet. My point is that there's little reason to assume that the mere acquisition of some technology is going to bring with it a better sense of morality... in fact, if humans are any indication of the general trend for life in the cosmos - just the opposite would be true.

    10. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by xstonedogx · · Score: 1

      Even if there are no higher physics that can shortcut light speed, they should be here by now.

      Why? Even at a significant fraction of the speed of light it's going to take a long, long time to colonize the galaxy. Perhaps less than a million years if you are actively trying to colonize the galaxy as fast as possible. If you're doing it on an as-needed basis, it's going to take a lot longer.

      There are hundreds of billions of stars. Even visiting them all in some capacity (e.g. Von Neumann probes) would take a long time and we'd have no way of knowing whether they had been here at all unless they made themselves known.

      And all this assumes best case scenarios for:

      1. Development of life.
      2. Development of intelligence.
      3. Development of space-faring technology.
      4. Stability of civilization both before and after the start of their Space Age.

      And then there is the question of why they would come here in the first place. Resources? There is not much here that isn't available elsewhere and probably closer to their home. Life, intelligence? Well, if it's as common as we're assuming then we are nothing special so why bother?

    11. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      That may very well be the case, but it still doesn't answer why they don't make contact with their probes. If you're sending probes to model the alien world, why wouldn't you have the probe also say "hi" while you're there? That brings us back to the Prime Directive as a possible reason.

    12. Re:And then there's the Fermi Paradox by sunspot42 · · Score: 1

      Maybe. Or maybe they think we're more interesting / entertaining to watch if we don't know they're here. After all, when scientists observe animals in the wild they typically don't interact with them.

      Also, the probes might be very small and designed to evade detection for a number of reasons. For starters, what if there's some hostile alien race out there? Unlikely, but you could never be sure. You wouldn't want less powerful races to know much if anything about you - that could help a more powerful aggressor identify and locate you.

  22. All these outlandish claims of habitable planets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But no clear evidence of intelligent alien life anywhere. If there really are possibly billions of warm earth like planets. Then the reason we have no evidence can't be because intelligent alien life doesn't exist IMO. The reply's to this post will likely be a great explanation of why there are no aliens. My only reply to those people is if that's true then there really can't be billions of earth like planets.

  23. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by ZankerH · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Unfortunately, all of the democratic and republican presidents have publicly admitted to holding some irrational, religious belief or another. Is there a single, serious, declared atheist candidate? No? Then if we're going to elect another idiot who believes an imaginary friend is telling him to invade other countries, we might as well skip the mainstream irrational and go for the full-on, batshit crazy stuff.

    Nothing can save America anymore. May Cthulhu eat us first.

  24. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Grizzley9 · · Score: 0

    ...razing the dead...

    Now there's an interesting mental image of the savior.

  25. Cue "skeptics" by CheerfulMacFanboy · · Score: 1

    "Other planets are warm without man made CO2!"

    --
    Fandroids hate facts.
    1. Re:Cue "skeptics" by BJ_Covert_Action · · Score: 1

      Please don't. This is an interesting scientific topic and I would rather not have it threadjacked over some damn holy war, no matter what side of the science/debate/politics/religion/controversy you are on.

      If there is a Mod listening, please flag this as off-topic, even if it is a joke.

  26. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by GameboyRMH · · Score: 0

    So are you agreeing or disagreeing with xevioso?

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  27. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

    It's easier to disprove, however. I.e. there's more archaeological evidence clearly showing it to be false. Christians dodge the bullet wrt Great Flood etc by claiming that it's all allegorical, but, last I checked, it's not an option for Mormons, at least not for those parts of their scripture that are directly affected. So their only choice is to dismiss the science that proves them wrong as invalid.

  28. Re:Total failure by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

    Actually, communism has succeeded on all of them. That's why they are all silent - they have nothing to discuss with bourgeois imperialistic likes of us. ~

  29. Did you read the headline? "Earth Analogs" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    An Earth Analog is not the same as our Earth.

  30. fermi paradox? by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    So if there are that many earth-like worlds... Well, you know the question.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    1. Re:fermi paradox? by RatBastard · · Score: 1

      Some have life. Some have, will have, or have had, intelligent life. On some of those worlds they haven't invented radio yet. On some they abandoned radio a long time ago. On some they will never make it that far. Some have died out long ago, leaving only their remains. Some have yet to evolve. Some are there, right now, but are too far away to be detected. At the scales we're talking about we may never meet anyone else before we go extinct.

      --
      Boobies never hurt anyone. - Sherry Glaser.
    2. Re:fermi paradox? by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      "they abandoned radio a long time ago" is interesting. I wonder if that was considered when Fermi first made the observation in 1950 -- that a civilization might only radiate detectable emissions during a small period of its existence. Not because it destroyed itself, but because it's a natural progression for a civilization to switch to lower power and ground based conduits shortly after they discover wireless communication.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  31. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by gilleain · · Score: 1

    ...razing the dead...

    Now there's an interesting mental image of the savior.

    It's well known that the Lord was a 80th level Paladin, and did triple damage against the undead.

  32. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by dgatwood · · Score: 1

    Christians dodge the bullet wrt Great Flood etc by claiming that it's all allegorical

    Not necessarily even allegorical. For a civilization whose idea of the "whole world" is probably a few thousand miles wide, the notion of the "whole world" being flooded is actually pretty plausible.

    --

    Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  33. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tverbeek · · Score: 1

    This is actually on-topic, because Mormon theology requires there to be all sorts of habitable Earth-like worlds out there for good Latter Day Saints to become Gods for when they die.

    --
    http://alternatives.rzero.com/
  34. "May" by gatkinso · · Score: 1

    Problematic word, that.

    --
    I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
  35. Re:Total failure by lgw · · Score: 1

    That makes sense, after all hasn't communism always been "good idea, wrong species"?

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  36. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by lgw · · Score: 1

    I know we look at planets like ours- becuase we know how to look for life similar to ours as oppossed to other theoretical life forms. BUT- odds are- there are probably a thousand life forms that don't appear anything like earth-forms for every one that does.

    There could be life on the sun. The atmopsheric storms of Jupiter might form intelligent life. It's all neat SF, but completely useless to talk about in science. It's not that planetary scientists don't get this, it just that it adds nothing to the conversation to say "life mght be everywhere". Fine, sure, but then what? Beyond SETI, there's no way to detect life-not-as-we-know-it, so it doesn't matter in any practical way.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  37. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Grishnakh · · Score: 0

    I'm sorry, but there's a pretty big difference between the two. Also important, one set of beliefs is pretty easy to disprove, whereas the other isn't.

    The Mormon beliefs include entire lost cities and civilizations in North America. There is absolutely NO evidence to support these beliefs in archeology or genetics. If there were an advanced civilization here 1000 years ago, I think it's pretty safe to assume we'd know about it by now with archeology. We know about other civilizations from that time period, such as the Anasazi who lived near where I do now, in Arizona; even though they were a comparatively small tribe, they left canals, petroglyphs, and best of all entire cities (villages actually by modern standards) that still stand today. Same goes for other pre-Columbian civilizations in Central and South America. We know quite a bit about the civilizations that preceded European settlement on this continent, and there isn't one shred of evidence to back up Joseph Smith's wild claims.

    The Jesus story is much harder to disprove. It's all about one man, not multiple civilizations. This one man didn't build any physical monuments, cities, etc. People from that time claimed he performed a few miracles, but nothing that would leave any archaeological record, so they may be true, or they might not, there's no real way to know. Most importantly, the story is about a man who claimed to be the son of God, and came here to teach us about how to live with one another. Strangely enough, this turned into a worldwide religion that lasts to this day, yet many of his so-called followers (especially ones in the USA) haven't bothered actually learning about the very simple things he taught, such as "do unto others as you would have them do unto you", and instead have twisted the religion into a hate-filled thing that bears his name but none of his teachings.

  38. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

    How about electing someone who's actually a Christian, and believes the stuff like "love thy neighbor", "do unto others", etc. The people calling themselves Christian now haven't bothered reading anything that Christ taught.

  39. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by djlowe · · Score: 2

    Water to whine

    "But, I don't WANT water! Can't you make something with alcohol in it ?!?"

  40. Drake Equation by seven+of+five · · Score: 1

    Another number you can plug into the Drake equation, FWIW.

  41. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    1) We will have the technology to inhabit "unihabital planets" long before we have the technology to REACH goldilock planets.

    Yes, but who really wants to live in a giant artificial dome? It'd be nice to find someplace that's like our own planet naturally.

    Anyway, yes, the plan is to find life, and hopefully intelligent life. You're not going to find that on Jupiter or Venus, or at least it's highly unlikely because those planets won't support carbon-and-water-based life like us. To find life that resembles us, we have to look for planets that resemble ours.

    BUT- odds are- there are probably a thousand life forms that don't appear anything like earth-forms for every one that does.

    Pure conjecture, and I imagine any biologist would tell you you're wrong.

  42. Re:All these outlandish claims of habitable planet by arth1 · · Score: 1

    Do we have an agreed-upon definition of "intelligent"?
    We can't dismiss existence based on our own species.

  43. 0? by leifb · · Score: 1

    not... 1?

  44. I hope... by SwedishChef · · Score: 1

    I hope they have better luck with intelligent life than we've had.

    --
    No one ever had to evacuate a city because the solar panels broke!
  45. Hello by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hi, I am from one of those 15.000.000.000 planets, and we have got Slashdot in here as well, we also speak english, and I wish you all my ET friends a good day.

    =]

  46. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

    A literal reading of the Bible is very clear that world is the entirety of creation, and Noah and whoever was on the Ark were the only survivors. Anything beyond that is creative reinterpretation of the text.

  47. Damn'it Another lie... by 3seas · · Score: 1

    Who said they don't make land any more?

  48. Once again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes it seems that once again arrogant humans would rather believe they are the exception, instead of the rule. Why is it so tough to believe that there are not only other planets like earth, but that they are just as likely teeming with life as ours is? We are MOST likely to be the product of the rule, NOT the exception, and Earth is definitely NOT the center universe. Get over yourselves humans, and maybe have a little respect for the rest of the biosphere!

  49. Re:All these outlandish claims of habitable planet by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    If there are aliens, how would we know? It's not like we've put much effort into going out and looking for them. All we've done is sit around with some radio telescopes and listen for them, as if they would use something as quaint as radio waves to communicate, and as if the ones about as advanced as us are spending all their energy beaming radio signals into space hoping for someone to answer.

    Basically, the idea that "there are no aliens" assumes that we're sooooo special that obviously the aliens would want to come visit us and say hi, even though we're so backwards and primitive and stupid that we haven't even bothered to venture past our own Moon (which we quickly got bored with and decided to go start some more wars instead to occupy our time), except for a few small unmanned probes that have only explored our own star system, barely.

  50. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by halivar · · Score: 1

    A literal reading of the English translation by a modern westerner is not the same as a literal reading of the ancient Hebrew by an ancient Jew. Hell, there are idioms in the Torah that we still don't know the meaning of.

  51. mmmm aliens by mevets · · Score: 1

    I wonder what they taste like. I bet they are yummy. I wish I could live long enough to find out.

    1. Re:mmmm aliens by bronney · · Score: 1

      depends how you cook it really.. I prefer stir fry :D

  52. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by ZankerH · · Score: 1

    How about electing someone who actually believes a fairy tale instead of claiming to believe it to get votes

    As much as I admire honesty...no.

    As an atheist who has read the bible, I am honestly fucking scared of being governed by someone who is familiar with it and literally believes the whole thing.

  53. Re:All these outlandish claims of habitable planet by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

    From Wikipedia:

    The Drake equation states that:

    N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

    where:
    N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;
    and
    R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
    fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
    ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
    fl = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
    fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
    fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
    L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

    Although this article seems to claim that we now have a decent handle on the 'ne' factor now (and maybe "R*" and "fp" too), we still have no idea what the values of the other factors are.

    --

    "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

  54. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    I think that's part of the problem with Christianity: the Bible, and many Christians who believe the whole thing. Jesus never said the Bible was inerrant or true, in fact it didn't exist until long after he died (though the OT parts did).

    Here's my suggestion: ignore the Old Testament for the most part, as that's all Jewish stuff. Just read the stuff Jesus himself said and did, and don't worry too much about the rest. I don't even think he's the same as the OT god; he just didn't want to upset people too much by saying much of the OT (Torah) was wrong or inaccurate.

  55. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by g4b · · Score: 2

    I am scared by people who think people who do believe in god are irrational

    And I am honestly scared of being governed by anybody who is familiar with it and still does not get it enough to care.

  56. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

    About 12K years ago, the last ice age ended and sea levels rose, filling a bunch of previously-habitable land up with water. Some of that is believed to have happened very quickly, as ice dams broke in the vicinity of Gibraltar and/or the Bosporus (incidentally, near the areas where the ancestors of the Hebrews lived). You don't think it's reasonable for a group of people living in, say, what is now the middle of the Adriatic Sea to think their entirety of creation (i.e., the few tens of miles or so in any direction that they might have been expected to have explored on foot) was flooded?

    --

    "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

  57. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

    You don't think it's reasonable for a group of people living in, say, what is now the middle of the Adriatic Sea to think their entirety of creation (i.e., the few tens of miles or so in any direction that they might have been expected to have explored on foot) was flooded?

    It's not. The problem is that Bible has God directly address Noah, and claim that he's going to wipe humanity out entirely. If you treat Bible as the literal word of God, there's no way about it. If you treat it as a collection of garbled ancient stories mixed up with myths and legends of ancient Jews, then sure, it makes sense - but not so much as a holy book.

  58. Re:All these outlandish claims of habitable planet by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

    That's the whole problem with this. The Drake Equation is really nothing more than conjecture, and most of the terms are unknown and probably just plain unknowable (unless you're Q). We might be able to get some values for these terms that are somewhat plausible, but only if we actually start exploring other star systems, so that we could start applying some statistics (e.g., "out of 10 star systems we've explored, all 10 had planets, 8 had planets that could potentially support life, 7 have developed life, and 1 has developed intelligent life"). We'll never figure those things out just sitting here on this planet and never going anywhere.

    For "fc", what detectable signs of our existence have we released into space? A few radio transmissions during the dawn of the TV age maybe? That's not much. It's not like we've made some giant structure that aliens could see with a powerful telescope (the way we're now seeing exoplanets) and be able to tell with high certainty that it's artificially-made.

    "fp" is probably close to 100%, judging by all the exoplanets that are being discovered around every nearby star these days.

    I wonder how many other alien situations are sitting around saying "we must be the only intelligent species in the universe, because no one else has bothered to come visit us", and also saying "space exploration is too expensive and not profitable, so let's not bother. This world will sustain us forever."

  59. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just read the stuff other people said Jesus himself said and did, and don't worry too much about the rest.

    I hate doing this, but FTFY.
    The NT isn't contemporary, is it? Even if it was it's been translated, copied and retranslated so many times it's lost most of its original meaning anyway.

  60. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Eponymous+Hero · · Score: 1

    getting an atheist candidate would be no different than a religious one. you are not guaranteed serious, rational behavior. instead of pointing to a group and saying we need one of these for a candidate, we should look at people on their merits. there are mormons, and other christians, and muslims, and jews, and other religious types who may believe supernatural things that you believe are ridiculous, but if they can demonstrate making decisions without these things being a heavy influence on them, then they would make good candidates.

    it is just as silly and irrational to think that finding an atheist candidate is the cure to fundamentalist religious candidates. atheists are just as locked into a belief system they can't prove as much as almost anyone else, they are not nihilists.

    --
    insensitive clod overlords obligatory xkcd car analogy russian reversals whoosh pedant fanbois ftfy in 3...2...1..PROFIT
  61. Bible translations by mcswell · · Score: 1

    I could reply to the "contemporary" part, but that gets into too many uncertainties. But I will reply to the "translated, copied and retranslated so many times" part (or at least the "translated...retranslated" part).

    As far as we know, the New Testament was written in Greek. (There are some theories that the gospels, or at least Matthew, Mark Luke and John, were written in Aramaic. Some would say the entire NT, but that seems pretty unlikely, given the audience.) We have the NT in Greek. Yes, it's been translated many times: into Latin, and a thousand or more other languages. But that doesn't cause it to "lose most of its original meaning," because you can read it in Greek if you want to, or you can try to triangulate the original meaning by reading many different English (or French, or German, or...) translations which were nearly all done directly from the Greek.

    Similarly, the Old Testament was written in Hebrew, except for a few small parts written in Aramaic. Again, this has been translated into many languages, but you can still read it in Hebrew and Aramaic if you take the time to learn those languages. Or you can try reading multiple English translations, virtually all of which were done from the original Hebrew/ Aramaic.

    I said "nearly all" and "virtually all." You can read the New Testament as translated from Latin, but that would be going through two stages of translation (Greek --> Latin --> English). Similarly, you can read the Old Testament as translated from Greek (the Septuagint translation, done one to three hundred years BC); again, two stages (Hebrew/ Aramaic --> Greek --> English).

    About the copying issue: you might want to look into the differences between the Masoretic texts of the Bible, and those found at Qumran (the Dead Sea Scrolls). While the latter are a thousand years or more older than the former, the differences are not that great. Copyists were apparently pretty careful.

    In sum, it's not at all true that "it's lost most of its original meaning." On the contrary.

    But don't take my word for it, do some research!

    1. Re:Bible translations by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Language changes, even reading a couple of hundred year old English work can lead to misunderstanding. For example if someone wrote that Jesus was a nice person, what did they mean?
      Today it would be a complement, some time ago it may have been an insult or complement and further back it definitely would have been an insult as nice has evolved from meaning silly to fussy to dainty to precise to kind. I'd guess that Greek, Aramaic and Hebrew have had similar changes with the added bonus with Hebrew that they leave out the vowels so sometimes it's hard to say what the word actually was. See the argument on Thou shall not kill or was that murder and even what the word that was translated to day in genesis actually meant.
      http://etymonline.com/?term=nice

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    2. Re:Bible translations by mcswell · · Score: 1

      There are plenty of Greek manuscripts around to do lexicography from. That used to be true only up through "classical" Greek (up to the 330 or so BC), but over a century ago, a lot of non-biblical Koine Greek manuscripts were found. (I have heard estimates of "tons", but that might be an exaggeration.) Two lexicographers, Moulton and Milligan, compiled a largish dictionary based on those manuscripts.

      So yes, for Koine Greek we have plenty of attestations, from before and after and during the Biblical times, and we have a good understanding of what it means.

      We're less certain about Biblical Hebrew, and there are indeed places (particularly, I think, in the Psalms) where there is some uncertainty about the meaning of words. There is some evidence from related languages (Aramaic, for example), and also from the Septuagint (the Greek translation of the Hebrew bible, done several centuries BC).

  62. But? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are there any without investment bankers....

  63. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by mcswell · · Score: 1

    > who really wants to live in a giant artificial dome?

    Arnold? Oh, yeah, you're right.

  64. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by ZankerH · · Score: 1

    You're a rational Christian, then? When was the last time you sat down, weighed the factual evidence (not scripture), critically evaluated your beliefs and adjusted them to reflect your perceived probability of your prior beliefs being correct? I doubt most people who consider themselves religious would even know how to do that. And those that are rational in other areas of their life are obviously not applying rationality to their religious beliefs. So yes, I think labelling religious people as irrational is perfectly right.

  65. Re:All these outlandish claims of habitable planet by sunspot42 · · Score: 3

    The Drake Equation isn't "conjecture" - it's just a way to formulate the question. The numbers you plug into it are largely conjecture at the moment, although we're about to have pretty specific values for many of the elements. This puts some bounds on the final number. The more certain you are regarding each element of the equation, the more tightly bound the final number becomes.

  66. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by g4b · · Score: 1

    > When was the last time you sat down, weighed the factual evidence (not scripture), critically evaluated your beliefs and adjusted them to reflect your perceived probability of your prior beliefs being correct?

    Quite often I think.
    You will find, that dealing with scripture in the way religious people do, is not always real. Dealing with scripture generally is not something, my kind is very good at. I am a skeptic. But knowledge about that too slowly accumulates, along with myriads of sideknowledge.
    So while I consider myself quite good in scripture, I like to build my own opinion about things.
    I would rather give up any of that and be a happy religious nut sometimes.

    > I doubt most people who consider themselves religious would even know how to do that.

    Religious? No. But that depends on the definition of the word. Being Religious is caring more about the outward of belief, than the inward. I would not condemn that as idiocy. It allows you to find belief in another way, without the same intellectual struggle. But every believer who takes his belief seriously, is struggling with it.
    Because every human struggles.
    Stopping to ask certain questions out of fear or the feeling of being right and stopping to ask them because of being content are two different things.
    But you will find, that religious people do not differ very much from nonreligiouspeople in that particular context.

    I believe, the difference is only made by the truth behind the belief. If it keeps being negated, and you force yourself to believe it, you might be wrong, after all.

    > And those that are rational in other areas of their life are obviously not applying rationality to their religious beliefs. So yes, I think labelling religious people as irrational is perfectly right.

    I am not sure if I can follow what it means to be rational in other areas of life but irrational in religious beliefs, but that also depends on the culture you come from and which kind of denomination rules your christian influence. Every denomination has its strengths, but also its weaknesses. Since they sometimes shift into some direction - because they are humans too - finding balanced churches where mixed individuals are, and there is room for debate, art, family, work with the needy, etc. is not always easy. And only there christianity is coming alive in its fullest, because people learn from others and learn to accept and love and care, hear personal reports from missionaries or meet people of different skillsets - even with the mind.

    you mostly find people from not so useful classes of the actual cultural surroundings (shifted over time, who those people were - at the moment a lot of immigrants here). churches are often in the middle of struggle.

    If being christian is irrational, depends on the existence of god.
    Not on the christians around, that are irrational.

  67. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by alamandrax · · Score: 1

    Mod points! Mod points right here! Please bring them all here.

    --
    'tis but a scratch.
  68. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by slackbheep · · Score: 1

    Just more proof Paladins are developer favorites. When was the last time you heard of a Sorcerer or Bard becoming the central figure of a globe spanning religion?

  69. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by ZankerH · · Score: 1

    If being christian is irrational, depends on the existence of god. Not on the christians around, that are irrational.

    So since there is no observational, experimental or inferential evidence that points to the existence of a god, you're willing to concede that religious people who are unwilling to take this lack of evidence into account and re-consider their beliefs are, in fact, exhibiting a lack of rationality?

  70. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    None of that is any less sensical that believing all the other stories about Jesus. Water to whine, razing the dead, walking on water, etc.

    Quite. You shouldn't vote for kooks who seriously believes in any religion. They're all as charmingly ridiculous.as each other.

    I know it's totally different in the US, but here in the UK, politicians tend to keep quiet about their religious beliefs, for fear of ridicule and hatred from most of the electorate.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  71. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    A literal reading of the English translation by a modern westerner is not the same as a literal reading of the ancient Hebrew by an ancient Jew. Hell, there are idioms in the Torah that we still don't know the meaning of.

    So, probably best not to take the Bible too seriously then? I'm with you on that. As a collection of not entirely convincing myths, it's generally more fun than Lord of the Rings, except for the "A begat B who begat C..." bits.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  72. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    About 12K years ago, the last ice age ended and sea levels rose, filling a bunch of previously-habitable land up with water. Some of that is believed to have happened very quickly, as ice dams broke in the vicinity of Gibraltar and/or the Bosporus (incidentally, near the areas where the ancestors of the Hebrews lived). You don't think it's reasonable for a group of people living in, say, what is now the middle of the Adriatic Sea to think their entirety of creation (i.e., the few tens of miles or so in any direction that they might have been expected to have explored on foot) was flooded?

    Many cultures have flood myths, and no doubt you're at least partly right. The problem, though, is that the Bible is story has stuff about God wiping out humanity's sins. If it turns out it was just a natural disaster, then the Goddy parts are pointless and in fact lies.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  73. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    No, there are levels of insanity just as there are levels of stupidity. Although not ideal, it's still better to have a politician who holds a mainstream, fairly moderate set of stupid beliefs than one who has an extreme set of stupid beliefs.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  74. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    Jesus never said the Bible was inerrant or true, in fact it didn't exist until long after he died (though the OT parts did).

    I'd be much more convinced by the whole idea of Christianity if Jesus had in fact written all the NT before he died and not left it to shitheels like St Paul to put a spin on his teachings.

    I mean, if you're the son of God, why would you need mere mortals to interpret your words?

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  75. So what? by Sqreater · · Score: 1

    Any humans there? No. Intelligence is not a module you can plug into any species -- unless you are a child watching cartoons with talking dinosaurs and squirrels.

    --
    E Proelio Veritas.
  76. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    "Pure conjecture, and I imagine any biologist would tell you you're wrong."

    Actually, I think they would come up with the classic arguments of "we know life can evolve with water, it did here", "panspermia causes all life", "we know what we're looking for when looking at life like ours".

    There was once a time our ancestors thought staying warm on a cold day was acomplished by getting in a cave, or snuggling up to a cave woman. Then we found fire, animal hides, clothes from fabric, other insulation techniques, electricity, a glass of brandy... the dozens of ways we know to feel warm today.

    The fact that life today requires RNA and water just means we know squat. Instead of looking for life out there that looks like earth-life; we should be looking EVERYWHERE- looking for things that violate what we know about chemistry and physics- and checking out if some life-form could be causing them.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  77. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    Regarding the dome. Even on these earth-like planets you'd probably still need a "dome" (at leastfor the first dozen generations) It would be extremely surprising if we found an environment rich in stable oxygen. (Oxygen is highly reactive- it is only thanks to photosynthesis we have it in it's free form here on earth).

    Unless the life on these other planets were almost exactly like ours and even had plant-like photosynthesis producing oxygen we needed. Even then- better hope there is nothing poisonous to us in the air.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  78. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Zenaku · · Score: 1

    Excuse me, but if you believe the biblical record, Jesus reanimated the dead (Lazarus), and later returned from the grave himself. He was obviously a Necromancer.

    --
    If fate makes you a motorcycle, you become a motorcycle.
  79. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    I am scared by people who think people who do believe in god are irrational

    That is fine if you can have a rational debate with a non-believer, without falling back on "you need to have Faith" and "Jesus has revelaled himself to me" as arguments.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  80. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    atheists are just as locked into a belief system they can't prove as much as almost anyone else

    No we're not. If a believer could provide one piece of convincing evidence that God existed, I'd be more than happy to change my position, at once, as I certainly wouldn't want to disrespect or annoy an omniscient omnipresent Supreme Being.

    But at the moment I see no reason to believe in the Abrahamic God any more than one of the Ancient Egyptian or Greek deities.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  81. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by halivar · · Score: 1

    Err, rather, I am suggesting that, for those who *do* take the Bible seriously, they need to be more inquisitive and deliberate, rather than the trite expression "Bible says it; I believe it." An interest in ancient history, as well as ancient Hebrew and Greek, are helpful in this regard. It is unfortunate that so many non-literate* Christians down here in the Bible Belt really don't know what their Bible is saying.

    *I say "non-literate" because they can read... they just choose not to.

  82. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    we should be looking EVERYWHERE- looking for things that violate what we know about chemistry and physics- and checking out if some life-form could be causing them.

    The problem with this is that we don't have limitless resources to look for life everywhere, so we concentrate our efforts on "life as we know it", since we already know that carbon-and-water works pretty well at creating life.

    We also know that carbon and water have very interesting and useful chemical properties, which we don't see in many other elements; there's an entire branch of chemistry dedicated to this, called "organic chemistry", which concentrates on carbon compounds. Carbon, particularly in a 6-sided ring, plus hydrogen and oxygen and some other things on occasion, combine in seemingly limitless ways to form useful compounds for biology. Do we see this property with any other chemicals? Not really, not in the same way, that I've heard of.

    We may not have ever left this planet (except for a brief excursion to the moon), but we DO know that all matter in the universe is composed of a small number of elements, and we DO know a whole lot about those elements and how they interact with each other. It's not like we're going to visit other star systems and find planets where life is based on a different periodic table of elements that's different from ours.

  83. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by g4b · · Score: 1

    I thought long about that sentence.

    Yes. I support it. First I misunderstood and even wanted to claim the same thing.

    There is no scientific data which supports a being called god IN our universe. There cant be any reliable data on a transcendent god outside our universe, and nothing - except the existence of religion in human cultures, which could be simply imagination - supports that.
    I even add philosophically, that caring about a god being part of our universe is a waste of time, which also rules out the existence of "two or more separate gods", since then again there is space and time. As is to care about a god who is bipolar. Or to care about a god, that is either non-transcendent or impersonal. Or to care about a god who is evil.

    Rationally, this leaves me two choices, a transcendent personal (therefore intelligent) god who is pure love and righteousness, or no god at all.
    I do not even care if it is different.

    Since a transcendent personal god is only witnessable in a relationship, I left the task up to him, to start it.
    The rest is personal and no evidence anyway.
    This is as far rational debate about God can go.

  84. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by hazah · · Score: 1

    You CANNOT do that! Jesus points to the old testament as the the method to achieve that which he proclaims will bring you into salvation. Any attempt to disregard the old testament would have to disagree with Jesus' own teaching, and therefore cannot be proposed as a way to resolve the paradoxical problems Christianity presents.

  85. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

    Where does he do that?

  86. Re:I don't see the obsession with Goldilocks zones by YouDieAtTheEnd · · Score: 1

    "we know life can evolve with water, it did here"

    Hence, an excellent reason to look for life where there is water. It is a known fact that life on Earth requires the presence of water and even though it is the only form of life we have observed, it's still observable evidence.

    "panspermia causes all life"

    Nope, sorry, not a 'classic' argument among the scientific community. An interesting hypothesis but it has no evidence to back it up.

    "we know what we're looking for when looking at life like ours"

    This is my biggest point of contention with your argument. I agree that we could make an attempt to look for life that is fundamentally different from us on the molecular level even though we would have to make huge assumptions about what to look for and would be left with not even the faintest idea of where to start. Even if we make all these leaps of faith and somehow find the time and resources to devote to it and then win the galactic lottery and find some form of non-carbon based, intelligent life, how would we even go about interacting with it? Such a life form would be so deeply different from us that even with our astronomical luck so far, the chances of its intelligence being remotely compatible with our own would be, for all practical purposes, 0%.

    Carbon based extraterrestrial life is going to be weird enough as it is if we ever find any, we don't need to complicate the matter more by trying to commune with space rocks or gaseous clouds.

  87. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by hazah · · Score: 1

    Whenever he is asked what one should do to be in God's good graces.

  88. Re:MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY 2012! MITT ROMNEY by hazah · · Score: 1

    I hope you're not asking me for verses. That is the entire premise of his message. The new covenant only removes the reward vs punishment incentive of the old. It does not suggest that the old is irrelevant. Basically: same rules, different consequences.