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A Third of Sun-Like Stars May Have Warm Earth Analogs
The Bad Astronomer writes "An astronomer studying data from the first 136 days of the Kepler observatory missions has calculated that as many as 34% of all Sun-like stars (abstract) may have Earth-sized planets orbiting in their habitable zones, where conditions are right for life as we know it. I have some reservations with his numbers, but they do match other studies. There may be 15 billion warm, Earth-sized worlds in our galaxy alone."
Natalie Portman might be out of reach too, but I still like to know whether she exists.
That's the whole "as we know it" part.
It's not that anyone thinks its impossible for life to from under other conditions, but that we do know of one set of conditions that worked. Plus, I always thought habitable meant habitable for humans.
William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
Liquid water is the foundation of a lot of interesting chemistry, and also a good temperature regulator. Life getting by without it would likely have to endure much more significant temperature swings.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
Natalie Portman might be out of reach too, but I still like to know whether she exists.
Or where she lives... /dothecreep
Given a population of 200-400 billion stars in the Mikly Way, 7.6% are similar to ours for 15-30 billion stars... 1/3 of which would be 5-10 billion stars purportedly hosting planets capable of supporting life as we know it.
The Drake Equation isn't "conjecture" - it's just a way to formulate the question. The numbers you plug into it are largely conjecture at the moment, although we're about to have pretty specific values for many of the elements. This puts some bounds on the final number. The more certain you are regarding each element of the equation, the more tightly bound the final number becomes.