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Your Tech Skills Have a Two Year Half-Life

itwbennett writes "Eric Bloom, an IT leadership coach and former CIO, has answered that eternal question 'does working on old software hurt your professional marketability' with a somewhat surprising 'no.' But, Bloom adds, 'a techie's skill set from a marketability perspective has a two year half-life. That is to say, that the exact set of skills you have today will only be half as marketable two years from now.'"

36 of 289 comments (clear)

  1. Depends... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Depends really on how specific your skills are.

    Knowing, for example Java or .NET programming languages won't decline in value that fast. Perhaps specialising in certain specific products will- and certainly the development environment will.

    On a non-programming side- knowing the basics of computer hardware doesn't decline in value that fast. Perhaps specialising in certain models does.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    1. Re:Depends... by Toe,+The · · Score: 2

      I was going to make a similar but converse point... as a tech generalist, much of what I do is bleeding-edge. Old knowledge is as irrelevant to me as it would be to a potential employer.

      Just as doctors are supposed to keep up to date on their skills through continuing education, technologists are expected to keep fresh on new tech trends.

    2. Re:Depends... by SoothingMist · · Score: 5, Interesting

      My experience has been that one has to balance keeping up with one's technical field and avoiding chasing fads. Too often "keeping fresh on new tech trends" boils down to chasing fads and, for instance, using a new language because it is there. What I have concentrated on are the technologies needed to solve difficult customer problems as they push their own application and technological domains. To make this work I keep up a constant cycle of study-learn-work-produce. That has worked well for 35 years and keeps me in demand as a senior research engineer (Ph.D.) at 60 years of age.

    3. Re:Depends... by jd · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It also depends on when you're talking about. After the Dot-Com crash, Java programmers were hurt FAR, FAR worse than C or Fortran programmers. Shortly before Y2K, Fortran and Cobol programmers were in massive demand. (For those who argue Y2K was a hoax because nothing happened, I'd point out that after a large fortune and a larger army of coders went to work on fixing the bugs, you should have EXPECTED nothing to happen. Fixing problems after the disaster is too late.)

      So the decay curve isn't a simple one. It has bounces and bottomless pits along the way.

      However, and I can't stress this enough, staying current isn't merely a matter of learning the next feature of the old language set. To stay relevant, you MUST diversify. A coder should also be a damn good system admin and be capable of database admin duties as well. Being able to do tech writing as well won't hurt. You don't know what's going to be in demand tomorrow, you only know what was in demand when you last applied for work.

      Programmers and systems admins shouldn't specialize on one OS either. As OS/2 demonstrated, the biggest thing out there in week 1 can be a forgotten memory by week 12. The market is slow at some times, fickle at others. You don't know how it'll be, the best thing you can do is hedge your bets. If you've covered (and stay current on) Linux, a BSD Unix variant, a SysV Unix variant, Windows Server, and at least one RTOS (doesn't matter which), you'll know 98% of everything you'll need. You can learn the specific lingo needed by a specific OS implementation quickly because that's only a 2% filler and not a 100% learn from scratch.

      Although workplaces don't do sabbaticals (which is stupid), you should still plan on spending the equivalent of 1 study year for every 7 work years. (If you spend 1 hour a day practicing, relearning, or expanding your skills excluding any workside stuff, you're well in excess of what is required. I can't guarantee that an hour a day will make you invulnerable to downturns, but I can guarantee that there will never be a time, even in the worst recession, that your skills aren't in demand.)

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    4. Re:Depends... by jd · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'd be wary about that "old knowledge". It may prove useful. There's LOTS of legacy software out there. I stay familiar with Fortran because it's still bloody good for numeric computations and it's uneconomic to translate old Fortran codes, which means I'm going to encounter it. I spent time learning about Intels iWARP chip (brilliant design, naff implementation) and Content Addressable Memory because these are ideas that have appeared multiple times and will therefore appear again. Understanding the principles now saves me time and effort for when they become important later on.

      That's not to say I stay from the bleeding edge. I try to split my time 50:50 between the past that I may well encounter in the future (a trait that secured me my current job) and the future that I will certainly encounter in the future (a trait that secured me my jobs at NASA and Lightfleet). Both will come up, that is inevitable, but it's not possible to know in advance which one will come up first or in what way.

      Generalizing is best done by making the fewest assumptions about the past, present and future that you can that will leave you enough time to learn the skills well.*

      *This is important. 100 half-baked skills are of equal value to 100 highly-tuned future-only skills that turned out to be a dead-end. None whatsoever. Mastering a smaller set of transferable skills, legacy skills and future skills, thus being totally generalized, is the obvious ideal.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    5. Re:Depends... by jd · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Not sure about glorified. Users get to scream when the feature sets change. Admins can't. Users often get to practice in other environments, it's much harder for admins to. Users get to blame admins when things fall over. Admins get to.... ....well, turn into a paranoid, schizophrenic wreck of a human being.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    6. Re:Depends... by Dog-Cow · · Score: 3, Informative

      .Net is not a programming language. Two of the most popular languages used with .Net are C# and VB.Net. C# is new with .Net and is still around. VB.Net is an evolution of Visual Basic, which has existed prior to Windows 3.0. (I don't know exactly how old it is, but VB 1.0 was in text mode, and created apps for the then-current version of Windows.)

    7. Re:Depends... by cyberchondriac · · Score: 4, Informative

      I had once felt that way too, but there's a distinct difference: doctors need only keep up with advancements in medicine or new discoveries about extant biological systems: the human body itself, however, doesn't really change (not over a few millenia, anyhow). It's a relatively stationary target.
      Software, OTOH, frequently changes drastically and constantly; it's engineered by man, and can be radically altered in any number of ways on whim, forcing a reinventing of the wheel sometimes even; a moving, morphing target, much of it probably driven as much as by planned obsolescence and profit as it is utter necessity. (Does Word really need to keep "evolving" to do what it does?) Sometimes I really wanna say "screw all this" and go start a goat farm.

      --

      Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
    8. Re:Depends... by Requiem18th · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Half-life is still a pretty damn good analogy.

      It is one of those mysterious, non-intuitive things about the subatomic world. You see, rather than ageing uniformly, atoms randomly decide whether to decay or not. Meaning that if you have a container filled with plutonium, after 24,100 years half of the atoms would have decayed, the supply in the container has decayed as a whole, but in reality half of the atoms there never decayed at all.

      The result of the analogy is that every two years half of the programmers will be unmarketable (unless they acquire new skills) the other half however doesn't need to learn anything since their exact skill set is still in demand.

      --
      But... the future refused to change.
    9. Re:Depends... by jd · · Score: 2

      I've admined 386BSD, FreeBSD, NetBSD, OpenBSD, Linux (0.1 - 3.1), SunOS, Solaris, IRIX, HPUX, OSF/1, VxWorks, Windows 200x Server, Windows XP, Windows 7, Plan 9, Inferno, the PDP-11 and OS/X. Not sure I'd call RTAI or Xenomai distinct OS'. Montavista certainly wasn't. Dealt with all three.

      This includes direct kernel work (hacking patches together to form the Functionally Overloaded Linux Kernel was damn hard, thanks to massive conflicts), writing drivers for a number of these, in addition to the usual installation, optimization, configuration, backup/restore, fixing of user issues, installing of software - from source or *bleagh* binary (including binaries for other OS', via the IBCS patch that used to exist for Linux), etc, ad nausium.

      Ok, shown you one. That's what you asked for, that's what you got.

      (Although I wouldn't expect a typical coder/sys admin to start on that kind of range, I've averaged 1 new OS every 2 years that I've worked with computers, keeping reasonably fresh on those not in immediate use. I would expect anyone who has been to University to be capable of learning at least 1 new OS every 4 years even with maintaining all their programming skills.)

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  2. Huh? by Xugumad · · Score: 2

    As a general rule I don't even list things on my CV (resume) that I have less than two years experience in, these days...

    I'm willing to accept this is the case for startups wanting the latest buzzword filled technology, but a LOT of places are happy at a much slower pace.

    1. Re:Huh? by Edgester · · Score: 2

      On my CV, I list things that I have less than 2 years experience, but I put skill level qualifiers like "Novice" ,"Intermediate", and "Expert"

  3. Re:What about languages? by dcavanaugh · · Score: 2

    I don't think the theory applies universally to all tech skills. C has endured well over the years. So has SQL. Other languages, not so much. I don't see many ads for Ada or Lisp these days. Your actual mileage may vary.

  4. Tell that to a COBOL programmer ... by Kittenman · · Score: 2

    .. an IT leadership coach ... uh-huh. Veiled message is "take my course, buy my book". I'm still employed using skills I learnt in 1980. Eric Bloom can get the hell off my lawn.

    --
    "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes" - Winston Churchill
  5. I call bullshit by cartman · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I still program in Java which I've been doing since 1998. I also sometimes program in Python which I've been doing since 1997. Obviously some things about those languages have changed, but many things haven't.

    OO languages are fairly similar to what they were 10 years ago. As is OO design, etc. There have been large changes to frameworks etc, but there is a significant "core skill set" which transfers over.

    In my case, my skills have not become become less marketable at all over the last two years. Recently I spent two years out of work (voluntarily), and when I returned to the job market I had no problem whatsoever finding a job.

    I think the half-life of skills is more like 15 years.

    1. Re:I call bullshit by msobkow · · Score: 2

      If you take the time to read the article, you'll see he's actually talking about how long your skills in customizing a particular release of software are viable, not about how long languages or operating systems remain relevant.

      As many companies stick with the same release of software for even longer, I question his numbers, but I don't question the theory. The lifespan of customizable products is much shorter than the tool-related skillsets required to do that customization. Your skills as a programmer don't become obsolete, but the APIs of the software often become obsolete as updates are released.

      --
      I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    2. Re:I call bullshit by epine · · Score: 2

      My 1979 APL skills gave me a huge leg up on learning the R language in 2008, except for the tax of unlearning elegance, and the odd rust flake or two.

      Are we talking skill cycles or fashion cycles on the two year tau?

  6. That long? Optimistic, aren't we? by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 3, Interesting

    That said, I've been coding QA software in some VB-Form language since 1994. My pay during that time has only increased. This is the first year that I've had to do anything in a C-form language.

    The unfortunate fact of the matter is that a lot of new technologies are horse puckey. C++ was an actual improvement over C. The .net platform, for all its many faults, has actually increased my productivity, but much of the rest, Windows Presentation Foundation, Python, Ocaml, Ruby, Silverlight, et. al are nifty, but nobody *needs* them. Frankly, if the world standardized on Java tomorrow, and we just used extensions thereof for different platforms and purposes, we could all concentrate on getting useful work done and quit dicking around with learning the latest obscure and allegedly more elegant syntax. The best language and syntax isn't the most logically consistent one, it's the one you know. In productivity terms, human factors trump formal systems elegance every time.

    --
    Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
  7. sounds about right by tverbeek · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This certainly fits my experience. I'm "over 39" and have specific tech skills that date back to the early 80s. Those are worthless. I continued doing highly technical work and staying current into the late 90s, when I went back to school to build up some of my non-technical skills. Not such a good idea as it sounded. I emerged from school several years later with just enough still-marketable skills to land a tech job that offered little opportunity to further advance my skills, then got laid off from that, took a retail job as a life raft.... and now my "freshest" marketable tech skills are a dozen years old, and close to worthless. I guess it's time to get out the paintbrushes and see if I can swing a new career as an artist; at least the half-life on those skills isn't as short.

    --
    http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    1. Re:sounds about right by Doctor+Memory · · Score: 2

      Interesting. I learned C, Unix and RDBMSes back in the early 80s. I only use C at home for hobby projects, but I still use Unix and SQL professionally. I learned Java back around the turn of the century and it's still paying my mortgage. Franky, I'm disappointed I can't seem to find any new positions that use any of the technologies I've learned lately (like OSGi, SOA or NoSQL databases). It's different if you're a front-end guy, I guess — I have seen some places looking for jQuery and HTML5 experience, but there's nearly as many that still want Struts or MFC. Hell, there are still shops that haven't migrated to Java 6 yet, and that's five years old!

      If you're obsessed with the latest shiny, then yeah you'll probably only get two years out of it. I know all the extJS guys I work with moved to Silverlight, and they're bitching that MS has abandoned it so now they'll all have to learn HTML5...

      --
      Just junk food for thought...
  8. Consider the source - no wonder it's garbage! by tomhudson · · Score: 5, Insightful

    an IT leadership coach

    .... riiiiight. In other words, a buzzwad!

    Even COBOL refuses to die. C, C++ and it's variants are still everywhere (Objective C for Apple's iPhone App Store) decades later. Java has outlasted the fads of Ruby and Rails. HTML has been around ... well ... since the Internet. Javascript continues to be the #1 web scripting language.

    So no, your skills don't have a half-life of "X" number of years.

    1. Re:Consider the source - no wonder it's garbage! by Jesus_666 · · Score: 2

      It has already been pointed out that HTML did evolve a lot. I'd like to add that the ecosystem it's part of has also evolved.

      HTML 4 as written in 2011 is vastly different from HTML 4 written in 1997 (for instance, we tend not to write our sites for a specific version of a specific browser anymore). CSS as written in 2011 is vastly different from CSS written in 1996; for instance, before we had vendor prefixes we had to use hacks to present different CSS depending on browser and sometimes browser version. XHTML hasn't changed any since XHTML 1.0 but that's because XHTML 1.1 is so problematic to use that nobody uses it. JavaScript changed a lot in the last few years; I can still remember a time when using JS for anything important was a big no-no while today relying on JS isn't even neccessarily a barrier to a barrier-free site.

      Nowadays web development even includes using technology that isn't widely supported yet - the magic of polyfills (another very young term) allows me to write a site that uses HTML5 features and still works on browsers that have no concept of HTML5. A few years ago any manipulation of the DOM was done by hand-written JS; today we ask Google for an instance of jQuery and use that.

      Yes, I'm still using HTML 4.01, just like in 1999. But I'm no longer putting noise into my stylesheets to trigger IE parser bugs. I'm no longer limited to one-bit transparency because IE6 doesn't understand PNG alpha channels. I don't have to worry about whether an element has layout. And, quite frankly, if I wrote things like <script language="javascript"> today nobody would take me seriously as a web developer.


      Saying that tech skills never age because languages stick around is like saying that the operating system as a concept is dead - after all, the market is utterly dominated by Windows and Unix, which have been around since 1981 and 1969, respectively. You'd think that they'd have come up with something new in the last thirty years.

      There is a market for people who know old (versions of) languages but it's not identical with the market for people who know the current state of the art.

      --
      USE HOT GRITS WITH STATUE OF NATALIE PORTMAN (NAKED AND PETRIFIED)
  9. Re:What about languages? by ThorGod · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Suppose I know some amount (X) of C now (Just out of college)
      Will that be less valuable after having 2 years experience in the field?

    No, it wont. He's talking about *certain* IT skills. I'm going to go out on a limb and bet he's referring to the kind of tools you learn in a simple ITT-Tech type certification program.

    --
    PS: I don't reply to ACs.
  10. Technic / marketing by Cigaes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "a techie's skill set from a marketability perspective has a two year half-life"

    Well, a marketie's skill set from a technical perspective has a zero year half-life.

  11. Bullshit by cjcela · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I do not know why this is in the front page, and I do not know why the educated crowd of Slashdot listens to BS from the CIO/CEO/CXO of the day and his new genius theory to quantify things he should not, mainly because he does not understand what technology is about. These guys should be in marketing. There are new technologies and old technologies, and jobs for all of them if you are good and know the right people. If you are very good at Fortran or Cobol you can get a job. If you excel at Java or C you can get a job. None of these are new technologies by far, and the skills are highly portable from one to the other. The basic knowledge you need is always sort of the same, a mix or common sense, knowledge of the basics (algorithms, data structures, and a brief background on the problem domain you are working on), and some minimum social skills.

  12. Re:What about languages? by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 2

    Depends who interviews you really. If you're interviewed by someone who was a developer once- sure.

    However, it's just as common to have someone with a non-programming background being the person involved in running IT departments. (especially in manufacturing- if you're working at a mid-sized company in manufacturing- almost all the IT managers came from sales or accounting and know very little about computers).

    Quite frankly- IT is not a career to take if you ever want a promotion. Sure, it can happen- but you'll lose out to other departments time and time again.

    There are too few IT managers that know IT.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  13. It depends by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 2

    If you are trying to market yourself with buzzword technologies and languages, then yes, your marketability decreases over time. On the other hand, if you are marketing yourself for less trendy technical work, maybe not. There are still a lot of COBOL and FORTRAN programmers out there, and they command some pretty competitive salaries. There are a lot of systems that were installed over decade ago that work just fine and just need people to support and maintain them, along with occasionally adding an interface for some newer system.

    --
    Palm trees and 8
  14. Marketable vrs. Useful by jasnw · · Score: 2

    This is a reflection of a serious problem in the area of hiring decent techie folks. There's a difference between a "marketable" skill and a "useable" skill. A marketable skill gets you hired by people who are clueless about what makes a good techie (hardware or software) and only know buzzwords, whereas a useable skill is what the people who you're going to work with and for HOPE you have. Sometimes skills overlap between marketable and useable, but my own observation is the larger the company doing the hiring the less overlap there is.

  15. Huh ? by unity100 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    im earning my living from php/mysql/html/css for the last 6 years. and im earning even more today. and having to turn down potential new clients.

  16. Re:What about languages? by SteveFoerster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One simple way to avoid that type of shit from entering the workplace, refuse to hire anyone that has a technical certificate of any kind along with those with a degree from the diploma mills such as ITT Tech and Conservative err Community Colleges. Community Colleges are a fancy way of saying trade school. Employers should only hire the truly educated and those are only from the major Universities.

    I work in higher education, and not for a for-profit or a community college. Your belief that graduates from "the major Universities" are somehow better than those from other institutions, especially for something like application development, is hilarious to me.

    --
    Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
  17. IT is more than coders... by TiggertheMad · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I suspect that the Bloom is referring 'tech' skills in a general sense. Most IT people are not programmers, and thus consume rather than create software products. If you have 'skills' using Office version X, it will probably not be as valuable in two years when a new and improved product, Office X+1 comes out.

    Obviously, if you think of IT as just programers, what he is saying makes no reals sense, since staples like C, Java, and .Net have been around awhile and are not going to go away.

    --

    HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
  18. Being able to think makes you valuable. by eriks · · Score: 5, Insightful

    As a programmer, I can say that programming itself, that is, *how* to write code, in terms of methodology -- is a skill that will never leave you once you have acquired it (so long as you keep using it).

    Almost any programmer worth their salt can learn a new language in a few weeks, if not days. Granted it may take more time to develop understanding of any idioms or warts the language may have, but you can learn that stuff on the fly, unless you're writing HA/mission critical code, in which case, there'd better be a review process, and it's reasonable to expect that someone on the team will be an expert in the technology being used.

    So I'd say unless you've given up programming entirely and have moved on to a different career, your skills are still valuable, and will stay reasonably "fresh" even if you're writing code in a 30-year-old language (as the article says), as long as you actually think while you write code, and aren't just a copy/paste/munge wizard, not that there's anything wrong with that, for certain kinds of things.

    This of course doesn't even consider the (imho) much more valuable part of being a software developer: being able to converse with non-technical people, in whatever human language you use, and then translate that into some sort of actionable programming work. That's often more than half the battle. Then of course there is testing, testing and testing.

    The article isn't completely wrong, but (like much of the "IT industry") I think it missed the point of what skills are actually important to doing software development. Knowing how to use a specific bit of kit is pretty far down on the list, I think, for any reasonably competent programmer/technologist.

    I treat anything with the word "marketability" in it with suspicion.

  19. Re:What about languages? by The+name+is+Dave.+Ja · · Score: 2

    "Employers should only hire the truly educated and those are only from the major Universities"

    What a pompous ass thing to say. If/when you get out of mom's basement and into the real world, you may see that many jobs/careers are perfectly suited for trade school graduates. Like maybe, umm, trades? Technicians? It doesn't take a rocket scientist .. etc.

  20. 4 year CS does not fit for IT jobs apprenticeships by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 2

    It jobs need apprenticeships not 4-5 years in a class room. IT is a trade and CS is the high level stuff.

  21. Re:What about languages? by dcavanaugh · · Score: 2

    How marketable is SQL? There are two ways to look at it. Will SQL help you distinguish yourself from others and leave them in the dust? No. But just try to get hired without it.

    There are lots of legacy databases out there, and you won't be talking to them without a fair understanding of SQL. Even the niftiest of whiz-bang query tools will generate flawed SQL every so often, leaving you on your own to figure it out.

  22. Re:What about languages? by Brian+Feldman · · Score: 2

    You can make a name for yourself outside of school in place of that set of credentials. You provide measurable experience and anyone worth interviewing with will not overlook that...

    --
    Brian Fundakowski Feldman