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When Having the US Debt Paid Off Was a Problem

Hugh Pickens writes "NPR reports that not so long ago, the prospect of a debt-free U.S. was seen as a real possibility with the potential to upset the global financial system. As recently as 2000, the U.S. was running a budget surplus, taking in more than it was spending every year — and economists were projecting that the entire national debt could be paid off by 2012. So the government commissioned a secret report outlining the possible harmful consequences of retiring the debt completely. For one thing, paying off the national debt would mean the end of Treasury bonds, a pillar of the global economy. Treasury securities are crucially important to the world financial system in a number of ways: banks buy them as low-risk assets, the Fed uses them for executing monetary policy, and mortgage interest rates vary based on Treasury rates. 'It was a huge issue ... for not just the U.S. economy, but the global economy,' says Diane Lim Rogers, an economist in the Clinton administration. In the end, Jason Seligman, the economist who wrote most of the report titled 'Life After Debt (PDF),' concluded it was a good idea to pay down the debt — but not to pay it off entirely. 'There's such a thing as too much debt,' says Seligman. 'But also such a thing, perhaps, as too little.'"

12 of 633 comments (clear)

  1. a quick note from our sponsors: by justforgetme · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Dear /.

    debt is a good thing, you can't have enough of it.

    Yours sincerely
    the IMF

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    -- no sig today
    1. Re:a quick note from our sponsors: by Dragon+Bait · · Score: 5, Insightful

      ... logical thing for me to do might be to borrow lots of money and invest it into projects ... The bad decision was to borrow a shitload of money and have a huge party of wasteful spending

      Absolutely correct.

      Businesses have the concept of capital expenditures (generally plant, property, and equipment) and operational expenditures (labor, utilities, rent). For a family, capital expenditures are buying a house; operational expenditures are going out to dinner. Borrowing for capital expenditures when interest rates are low is an intelligent maneuver. Borrowing to cover operational costs is unsustainable.

      (Yes, I know, you can use your credit card to buy dinner [operational cost] and pay it off at the end of the month ... you're not incurring long term debt. However, using the credit card for dinning out all the time and then only paying the monthly minimum, you're heading for trouble.)

  2. Say what? by msobkow · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If there is no US debt, implying no need for Treasury bonds, that means there's nothing for people to invest in?

    Man, I've heard some absurd statements before, but this one takes the cake!

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    1. Re:Say what? by JoeMerchant · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If there is no US debt, implying no need for Treasury bonds, that means there's nothing for people to invest in?

      Man, I've heard some absurd statements before, but this one takes the cake!

      Nothing as "safe" as securities backed by the U.S. government. There may come a day when the U.S. government cannot pay its debts, but likely long before that day comes, the dollars they would be paid off in would be worthless too...

      Personally, I have more faith in the U.S. government than, say, Apple, or WalMart.

    2. Re:Say what? by rtfa-troll · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If there is no US debt, implying no need for Treasury bonds, that means there's nothing as clearly stable as Treasury bonds for people to invest in?

      There FTFY. Suddenly if you actually read it the article doesn't seem as stupid as if you completely misrepresent it.

      We are clearly going to get a big bunch of amateur economists commenting on this one. Lots of people who understand nothing of economics (and thus would be perfectly qualified to teach economics in most universities, it often seems). Given that this is a tech site and not an economics maybe let's at least try to read the article and then the Wikipedia article about whatever we are posting about and at least attempt to flame those that don't. Nobody up for that?

      If we look at this a bit further, the obvious alternative to US treasuries would have been AAA rated securities, such as the collateralized debt obligations which more or less caused the current economic crisis. That makes this paper pretty foresighted.

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      =~ s,(.*),<sarcasm>$1</sarcasm>,g if any_point_you_wish();
    3. Re:Say what? by SuricouRaven · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There can never come a day when the US government cannot pay it's debts, because no matter how bad things get they always have the Option of Last Resort: Print as much money as they need. The resulting inflation would be so severe it'd erode trust in the currency and initiate the hyperinflation death spiral and lead to the most serious global economic crisis of all time... which is why it hasn't even been considered as a serious option. But it's there. Should the situation ever become so desperate that economic suicide is the only way out.

  3. Re:1% by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Public debt ensures that all tax paying citizens are on the hook. Even someone who is responsible and is able to manage their personal money suddenly become beholden to whoever holds the debt. What better way to hijack an entire country?

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    Palm trees and 8
  4. Re:The Myth of the Clinton Surplus by amiga3D · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I never liked Clinton either but I'm starting to revise my opinion based on the last two clowns that replaced him. He looks better everyday.

  5. Rentiers by Baldrson · · Score: 4, Insightful
    This kind of "economics" is the sort of epic stupidity that is bringing down the US economy.

    Using the US government as your debt-collection agency so you can park your capital somewhere while you golf with Obama or whatever it is you do, is EXACTLY the kind of thing that results in the deindustrialization of the economy.

    When TFA says: "banks buy them as low-risk assets" it is betraying the truth of the "economics" profession reflected in Modern Portfolio Theory's so-called "risk free asset". The reality is that this "risk free asset" is the foundation of the centralization of wealth via what classical economists referred to as "economic rent": The portion of return on the economy which is, for all practical purposes, simply the result of there being an economy.

    A rational political economy would distribute all economic rent evenly in a citizen's dividend thereby replacing all government transfer programs (with their attendant public sector rent seeking) with market demand for what the people (as opposed to the wealthy or the politically influential with their lobbyists) need..

    Since it is clear that the US Federal government is now captured by the rentiers (rent seekers) of both the private and public sectors, it cannot admit rational political economic thought. So the responsibility devolves to the States. There is a proposal for State legislation to remediate some of the pathology created by a positive feedback loop of centralized power, but realistically, even the State governments are so depleted of resources by this vicious cycle that there is little hope for them to salvage the Republic.

  6. Re:Yes, because debt IS money by anagama · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you pay off debt the money is gone. Cash, paper foldable money, makes up about 5% of the money supply. The rest is just numbers in a balance sheet. Banks create new money when they create loans, but they don't create the paper -- just a ledger entry. The problem is, the money the banks create must be paid back at interest but they don't also create the interest. As a result, the amount of money owed is always greater than the amount of money in existence, thus ensuring that someone somewhere won't be able to find the money to pay off debts.

    It's so odd that the banks can make a profit on something they don't even have -- the money they loan is loaned into existence and then they get real money back as profit.

    "Money as Debt" is a little hokey, but still interesting: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544

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    What changed under Obama? Nothing Good
  7. Re:1% by siddesu · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This resulted in putting men on the moon and spurred the computer age and caused 20 years of growth.

    Give credit where it is due, and don't forget the spoils of war -- the German rocket technology and science, which propelled the US space science into the late 70s. The rest of the world was paying their war time debts up until the 80s.

  8. Re:1% by Wildclaw · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Where do you think the government gets the money to repay its debts? There are two possibilities: tax revenue

    The federal government never ever pay debts from tax revenue. Taxing is nothing more than a mechanism to reduce the aggregate money supply in the private sector. Once money has been taxed it is gone into the void. (for the federal government or any other currency owner that is)

    The federal government doesn't own money. It doesn't make any sense, as it is the issuer and recaller.

    As such, the only way for the federal government to repay debt is by creating new money. And with that realization, you quickly come to the understanding that the government doesn't have to borrow money if it doesn't want to. However, borrowing is a simple and easy way to manage interest rates and tie up private/foreign sector savings over a longer term so that it is impossible to flood the market with currency in a short interval. Hence, sovereign currency owners borrow to make the currency more stable.

    As for Greece. They aren't a currency owner, so it sucks to be them.