Wielding Supercomputers To Make High-Stakes Predictions

aarondubrow writes "The emergence of the uncertainty quantification field was initially spurred in the mid-1990s by the federal government's desire to use computer models to predict the reliability of nuclear weapons. Since then, the toll of high-stake events that could potentially have been better anticipated if improved predictive computer models had been available — like the Columbia disaster, Hurricane Katrina and the World Trade Center collapse after the 9/11 terrorist attacks — has catapulted research on uncertainty quantification to the scientific and engineering forefronts." (Read this with your Texas propaganda filter turned to High.)

Comments

Who computes the computer?

[VortexCortex]

Since then, the toll of high-stake events that could potentially have been better anticipated if improved predictive computer models had been available — like the Columbia disaster, Hurricane Katrina and the World Trade Center collapse after the 9/11 terrorist attacks — has catapulted research on uncertainty quantification to the scientific and engineering forefronts

How sure are we that the tolls could have been better anticipated?

We should leverage a super computer to calculate the potential that each high-stake event can be better anticipated by a super computer model. Then simply pool our resources and use greater predictive computing power for the events we have the most potential to anticipate.

I put it to you that once such a model can be computed, it will be trivial to use predictive computer models to determine which super computer will predict the the most accurate results. Thus, we can leave it alone to the task of the predicting, knowing that it has a potentially better chance of anticipating the anticipation.

Furthermore, we could use the predictive models to better anticipate which researcher will be able to quantify the amount of uncertainty quantification needed to quantify quantum uncertainty; They would also be the ones who could finally tell us what quantity of Schrödinger's cat is undead.