GnuPG Short ID Collision Has Occurred.
kfogel writes "Asheesh Laroia now has two GPG different keys with the same short ID (70096AD1) circulating on keyservers. One of them is an older 1024-bit DSA key, the other is a newer 4096-bit RSA key. Oops. Asheesh argues that GPG's short IDs are too short to be the default anymore — collisions are too easy to create: he did it on purpose and openly, but others could do it on purpose and secretly. More discussion (and a patch by dkg) are in this bug report."
When you've got nothing on the line, you're not going to be as careful about cryptography as someone who does.
There is the remote chance that several keys will have the same "short" Key ID. The "long" Key ID decreases the risk of a collision, but can be more unwieldy to use.
Considering that certain versions of the GnuPG man page actually explicitly cover this, I'd say this is a non-story. Just use the long key ID if you're worried.
With 32-bit short keys, there is a time complexity of 2^32.
That is only if you need to match one specific key.
To just get a match between two 32-bit keys, you on average need to generate less than 80000 keys.
But this is irrelevant, because the short ID isn't meant for positive authentication. It's a negative indicator - if the short key doesn't match, you don't need to check further, but if it does match, you do. Anyone who uses it for positive authentication deserves what they get.
Which surprises you most?
1. That GPG developers and users have ignored the well-known problem (in security circles) of the Birthday Paradox? ;)
- or -
2. That there are > ~45k GPG users such that this even is more likely than not to occur.
Seriously though, a 1 in 65536 chance of a collision doesn't seem acceptable to me.