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Samsung Could Soon Start To Twist Google's Arm
Hugh Pickens writes "For the past three years, Android has experienced a kind of free space expansion, but as we enter 2012, it seems the game may be changing. Instead of the old 'there's more than enough room for every Android handset maker to be a winner,' we have a three-horse's-length leader: Samsung shipping close to 55% of all Android phones, while Motorola and HTC lag behind. '[Samsung] could be in a position to twist Google's arm,' writes Jean-Louis Gassée.'If last quarter's trend continues — if Motorola and HTC lose even more ground — Samsung's bargaining position will become even stronger.' But what is Samsung's 'bargaining position'? What could they want? Perhaps more search referral money, earlier access to Android releases, or a share of advertising revenue. Will Google let Samsung gain the upper hand? It's not likely, because Motorola is about to become a fully-owned but 'independent' Google subsidiary, and its 16% of the Android market could counterbalance Samsung's influence to some extent. So what could Samsung do? 'Consider the Kindle Fire example: Just like Amazon picked the Android lock, Samsung could grab the Android Open Source code and create its own unlicensed but fully legal smartphone OS and still benefit from a portion of Android apps, or it could build its own app store the way Amazon did,' writes Gassée. 'Samsung is a tough, determined fighter and won't let Google dictate its future. The same can be said of Google. This is going to be interesting.'"
John Gruber asked an interesting question in response to this: Has any single PC vendor ever controlled that much of the Windows market? It's going to be very interesting to see how Android vendors respond to Google entering the handset market. It can't be good for the platform to have vendors forking the operating system just to snipe at each other. It's already fragmented enough with TouchWiz and all the other junkware, and popular phones that are months old don't even get major updates. This kind of unregulated chaos is exactly what so many critics predicted; it may even be an opportunity for Microsoft to win some Windows Phone deals as carriers decide they don't want to run a competing vendor's operating system. Whatever happens this year, I'm sure iPhone users will grab the popcorn and enjoy the show.
Open Source software has a tradition of ending up this way, especially when it's a program that needs custom hardware. (See also: Asterisk) First there's a surge in competitive hardware providers... then one of the hardware providers merges with the software provider and they then become the only hardware maker left. Doesn't require that you be the #1 vendor coming in, that follows once you become the official one.
Just because Google thinks they can dictate anyone and tell them what to do with impunity.
Well they did write the thing. This is Slashdot, where an open source developer is something more and less than a saint, to be quoted reverently, loved as a brother, feared as a tyrant, and accorded all the perquisites of an 18th level mage. Everybody knows that a copyright license is a holy compact, reifying Lockean rights and Benedictine virtue, and none shall interfere with the licensor's prerogatives (unless the licensor is rich, "doesn't give back to the community," or creates something that isn't source code, that is).
Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
Would it ruin Samsung's sales overnight?
Based on the current sales of Windows Phone devices, I would say yes. Companies like HTC which have a foot in both camps have a larger range of Android phones, presumable because they sell more units of that platform.
I honestly don't hear many people saying they bought a Samsung because it runs Android. Most people just want a phone with email and web, and if it's not an iPhone they want, they'll go with whatever is on sale. That usually is a Samsung. Android often doesn't play into it.
I am not that is true as a general rule. I think that brand recognition goes a long way, and Android has all the buzz lately. I have had the opposite experience that you describe. As being the "tech guy" at my work, people come up to me asking about Android after reading about it in the news. As yet, nobody has asked me about Samsung (or any brand) in particular. It may be that after they have made their purchase they claim that they just wanted something to check their email, but that would downplay how much thought people do put into these decisions.