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Statisticians Uncover the Mathematics of a Serial Killer
Hugh Pickens writes writes "Andrei Chikatilo, 'The Butcher of Rostov,' was one of the most prolific serial killers in modern history committing at least 52 murders between 1978 and 1990 before he was caught, tried, and executed. The pattern of his murders, though, was irregular with long periods of no activity, interrupted by several murders within a short period of time. Hoping to gain insight into serial killings to prevent similar murders, Mikhail Simkin and Vwani Roychowdhury at UCLA built a mathematical model of the time pattern of the activity of Chikatilo and found the distribution of the intervals between murders follows a power law with the exponent of 1.4. The basis of their analysis is the hypothesis that 'similar to epileptic seizures, the psychotic affects, causing a serial killer to commit murder, arise from simultaneous firing of large number of neurons in the brain.' In modeling the behavior the authors didn't find that 'the killer commits murder right at the moment when neural excitation reaches a certain threshold. He needs time to plan and prepare his crime' so they built delay into their model. The killings eventually have a sedative effect, pushing the neuronal activity below the 'killing threshold' – which is why there are large intervals of time between groups of murders. 'There is at least qualitative agreement between theory and observation [PDF],' conclude the authors. 'Stats can't tell you who the perp is, but they're getting better and better at figuring out where and when the next crime might happen,' writes criminal lawyer Nathaniel Burney adding that 'catching a serial killer by focusing resources based on when and where he's likely to strike next is a hell of a lot better than relying on the junk science of behavioral profiling.'"
Getting laid prevents serial killers? Suddenly I feel a lot less safe around here...
Sleeping with serial killers saves lives!
... but not necessarily yours...
Aren't they jumping the gun a bit?
If you look hard enough you can always find some function that correlates to a single set of data. Like the analogy in a beautiful mind, you can find any pattern or picture in the stars if you look hard enough.
Um, did you read anything on this guy? He couldn't get it up apparently, and that is what supposedly sent him into a rage. Dude was married, so ostensibly he had access to a woman, but if he couldn't get it up he couldn't get it up.....Not to mention you have killers like Ted Bundy who are incredibly charming(Bundy had something like 3 girlfriends at a time at some points in his life, dude even had women fawning over him AFTER they had learned he was a serial killer), but kill anyway......
Monstar L
For behavioral profiling being a "junk science" they've had a lot of successes, and more success than this idea will ever yield (especially since it's so easily reverse engineerable, not to mention vague in its predictions). And the criticism coming from a criminal lawyer - well, I think the lady doth protest too much.
The basic idea of profiling is to narrow a large search down into a smaller one. The basis of the idea that by studying known offenders and finding commonalities between them, you'll have a clue as to the sort of person a perpetrator will be given an arbitrary new crime. Now that enough information about profiling is out there, offenders can and do reverse engineer the profiling process to make it tougher for them to get caught (assuming they are smart enough to do so - many are not that smart). However, at the very least there will be certain things that they are compelled to do otherwise the crime is simply not interesting for them to do. And certain things they have to do to carry out their crimes which will give a clue as to who they are.
The way I look at it, the people who study these particular criminals and offer advice for catching them are analogous to specialist doctors. For example, if you are trying to diagnose and treat some specialist skin condition that is very rare, you will have better results with a referral to a dermatologist than having the GP struggle and try to treat it as best he can.
If I have seen further it is by stealing the Intellectual Property of giants.
And in other news, police warn that the Sudoku killer will kill either 1, 4, or 9 victims next.
Yeah, blah blah "Intellectual property" doesn't really exist, it's only copying not stealing, whatever.
Unfortunate that you got modded troll, because you make a good point.
I have to ask, though - At what point do you consider time and/or format shifting as "piracy", for ethical purposes?
If I watch live TV, no piracy, ostensibly because we see the ads that "pay" for it. But I can (and back before TiVo, most people did) use commercials as food/bathroom breaks, or just flip channels during them, so even in the bad-ol'-days, no one really watched them.
If I buy the season on DVD, no piracy, because I've actually directly paid for the content.
If I download the same show from a torrent, most of us would agree that violates the spirit of copyright, even if we don't particularly care and do it anyway.
If I rent the DVD and rip it, I think most would consider that piracy.
And of course, we have the DVR, where I can time and format shift it to watch wherever and whenever I want, which IMO most people have come to accept as not piracy.
But - How does ripping or torrenting differ from the DVR case, either functionally or in terms of compensation? Whether I "rip" a show from broadcast TV or rip it from a DVD, it makes absolutely no difference to the producer. Whether I download it from a torrent or "download" it from my TiVo To Go, it makes absolutely no difference to the producer. Whether I watch it live and promise to completely ignore the commercials, or watch a torrented 4th-hand fansubbed unlocked-PSP version, it makes absolutely no difference to the producer.
Basically, once the producer has "given it away" by broadcasting it to the world, how can any use of that content really fall into the same box as "stealing"?