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$100,000 Prize: Prove Quantum Computers Impossible

mikejuk writes "Quantum computing is currently a major area of research — but is this all a waste of effort? Now Scott Aaronson, a well-known MIT computer scientist, has offered a prize of $100,000 for any proof that quantum computers are impossible: 'I'm now offering a US$100,000 award for a demonstration, convincing to me, that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world.' Notice the two important conditions — 'physical world' and 'scalable.' The proof doesn't have to rule out tiny 'toy' quantum computers, only those that could do any useful work."

25 of 324 comments (clear)

  1. Easy, since it's the U.S. by tomhudson · · Score: 5, Funny

    Just point a gun at his head and ask him "Convinced?"

    1. Re:Easy, since it's the U.S. by Haven · · Score: 5, Funny

      Just point a gun at his head and ask him "Convinced?"

      This is the most concise explanation of a quantum computer I have ever read.

  2. D-Wave sold a commercial Quantum computer in 2010 by Hadlock · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Err, uh,
     
    Didn't D-Wave sell a commercial Quantum computer to Locheed Martin in 2010? Almost a year to the day?
     
    Someone explain to me the difference between this quantum computer and the one they're trying to prove doesn't exist, please.

    --
    moox. for a new generation.
  3. The jokes on them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I will prove Quantum Computers both possible AND impossible at the SAME TIME!

    1. Re:The jokes on them by maxwell+demon · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yeah, and you'll both get and not get the money at the same time. However don't complain if you find out that you didn't get it: It was you looking which caused the superposition to collapse into that state.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  4. You can't prove a negative by funwithBSD · · Score: 5, Funny

    So I guess the proof would be that they do exist, but only if you don't observe one.

    --
    Never answer an anonymous letter. - Yogi Berra
    1. Re:You can't prove a negative by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      'You can't prove a negative'

      If that were true, it would be unprovable. But, anyway, it's not true. Some of the most important (and proven) results in 20th century mathematics were negative: Goedel's proof that arithmetic is INcomplete, Church's proof that polyadic first-order logic is UNdecidable, Tarski's proof that truth is UNdefinable, Cohen's proof that the continuum hypothesis is UNprovable in ZFC, etc.

  5. Re:D-Wave sold a commercial Quantum computer in 20 by Ken_g6 · · Score: 5, Informative

    D-Wave uses quantum annealing. This works for minimization problems, although it's unclear whether it's better than "simulated annealing". This does not work for problems like factoring integers, which "real" quantum computers can do.

    --
    (T>t && O(n)--) == sqrt(666)
  6. Sorry, what? by Nemyst · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A similar question could've been asked years ago, back when transistors didn't exist: 'I'm now offering a US$100,000 award for a demonstration, convincing to me, that scalable personal computing is impossible in the physical world.'

    Using only technology available then, the answer would've to scale down tubes to the minimal size and go "well this computer's too weak to do anything useful, ergo it's impossible to have a personal computer that isn't just a toy computer." Then transistors happened.

    These kinds of things are stupid, because you're asking for a demonstration to an engineering problem, when engineering is always capped by scientific research. You could have a perfectly "convincing" proof today and tomorrow a new discovery crumbles it all to the ground.

    Unless a theoretical and fundamental proof can be made that quantum computing is impossible, there's no reason to say that it is, and I have serious doubts such a proof can be made considering what has been accomplished thus far. Current limitations are engineering issues, but nothing fundamental is stopping a useful and practical quantum computer from existing.

    1. Re:Sorry, what? by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In _Profiles of the Future_, Arthur Clarke collected a long series of well-thought-out, quantitative, proofs of the practical impossibility of aviation and space flight. The people he quoted were willing to agree that future breakthroughs such as antigravity might allow aviation to work, but that it was an engineering impossibility.

    2. Re:Sorry, what? by quantaman · · Score: 3, Informative

      A similar question could have been asked of perpetual motion machines, and in that case there would have been a payout, which I think is partially his point

      The impetus for this prize was a post on Dick Lipton’s blog, entitled “Perpetual Motion of the 21st Century?” (See also this followup post.) [...] Anyway, in the comments section of the post, I pointed out that a refutation of scalable QC would require, not merely poking this or that hole in the Fault-Tolerance Theorem, but the construction of a dramatically-new, classically-efficiently-simulable picture of physical reality: something I don’t expect but would welcome as the scientific thrill of my life.

      I think he's saying that while a general quantum computer might be a very long way off, the underlying theory that allows such a thing to exist is on very solid ground (which is why he's putting up the money). Of course this prize might still cost him since if the news of the prize goes viral he's going to spend the next decade getting spammed by kooks.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    3. Re:Sorry, what? by LargeMythicalReptile · · Score: 5, Informative

      There's some needed context.

      Aaronson himself works on quantum complexity theory. Much of his work deals with quantum computers (at a conceptual level--what is and isn't possible). Yet there are some people who reject the idea the quantum computers can scale to "useful" sizes--including some very smart people like Leonid Levin (of Cook-Levin Theorem fame)--and some of them send him email, questions, comments on his blog, etc. saying so. These people are essentially asserting that Aaronson's career is rooted in things that can't exist. Thus, Aaronson essentially said "prove it."

      It's true that proving such a statement would be very difficult, and you raise some good points as to why. But the context is that Aaronson gets mail and questions all the time from people who simply assert that scalable QC is impossible, and he's challenging them to be more formal about it.

      He also mentions, in fairness, that if he does have to pay out, he'd consider it an honor, because it would be a great scientific advance.

    4. Re:Sorry, what? by Nemyst · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I'm not sure what you mean by this. Quantum behavior disappears at macroscopic sizes simply because all lengths involved are microscopic. Take a hallmark of quantum mechanics as a simple example: the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. It has been shown that the standard deviation of the position times that of the momentum MUST equal or exceed Planck's reduced constant divided by two. Considering the latter is in the order of 10^(-34), it's no surprise that macroscopic measurements are not affected by this limit at all, but nanoscopic ones most definitely are. In the same way, quantum tunneling is also an effect which could theoretically happen at macroscopic sizes, but with a probability so low it's effectively impossible. There's no hard limit, it's just a spectrum which rapidly becomes negligible as size increases.

      As I said, the biggest problem is an engineering one: how do you scale up the number of qubits to an appreciable amount while keeping errors below an acceptable threshold? How do you operate on said qubits without measuring them so as to preserve the wavefunction? Some cases have answers, but this is still overall an open question, unlike classical computing where the first question's been answered by transistors and the second question has no bearing.

  7. Proving something negative is impossible by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ever try proving something that is not going to happen?

    Try it, and you'll know that it's impossible to prove something that is negative - like proving quantum computer impossible

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    1. Re:Proving something negative is impossible by tomhudson · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Please read the original summary (because we all know that you haven't really read it properly) - you don't have to provide 100% proof it impossible - just convincing the person offering the money that it is probably not practical for most real-world situations, which is a whole other kettle of fish.

      Hence my whole "just point a gun at him and ask if he's convinced" argument - it works on 2 levels:

      1. At the quantum level, both he and the gunholder could be considered in a quantum state - any outside observer cannot state definitively whether he is dead or alive until he either pays the $100,000, or gets shot.

      2. The whole "there are no atheists in foxholes" argument.

      Also, it is definitely possible to prove a negative. I can prove that there are no lions in my refrigerator, no elephants hiding behind my couch, and no dead zombie typing this comment, to most people's satisfaction, for starters.

    2. Re:Proving something negative is impossible by Arancaytar · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This is not true in mathematics and physics. Lots of things have been proved to be impossible. One can prove, without leaving room for doubt, that the halting problem is undecidable, that no arithmetic theory can be consistent and complete, that the universe cannot allow FTL propagation while obeying both causality and relativity, etc.

    3. Re:Proving something negative is impossible by snowgirl · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Also, it is definitely possible to prove a negative. I can prove that there are no lions in my refrigerator, no elephants hiding behind my couch, and no dead zombie typing this comment, to most people's satisfaction, for starters.

      The lions in your refrigerator are microscopic. The elephants hiding behind your couch are invisible, and you actually are a dead zombie. You just don't realize it, because of a psychological hallucination that you are not actually dead.

      --
      WARNING! This girl exceeds the MAXIMUM SAFE standards established by the FDA for BRATTINESS
    4. Re:Proving something negative is impossible by gd2shoe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The lions in your refrigerator are microscopic. The elephants hiding behind your couch are invisible, and you actually are a dead zombie. You just don't realize it, because of a psychological hallucination that you are not actually dead.

      In which case you actually can't prove anything at all... ever. For instance, the entire world (yourself included) could be figments of my imagination. Or maybe we're both characters in a book, and just don't know it.

      If you can prove anything, you can prove some negatives. Of course, you do need to accept some axioms on faith, or you'll be checked into a mental institution. (no offence intended)

      --
      I won't join Slashcott. OTOH, If Beta goes live, I just won't be back until it's fixed. Sorry Dice.
    5. Re:Proving something negative is impossible by snowgirl · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In which case you actually can't prove anything at all... ever. For instance, the entire world (yourself included) could be figments of my imagination. Or maybe we're both characters in a book, and just don't know it.

      For the strictest definition of "prove", indeed we cannot. As Decartes so eloquently stated, the only thing I can be sure of is my own mind. (After all, if my mind didn't exist in some form, then I wouldn't be able to even contemplate not-existing.) But just because I am sure of my own mind's existence, does not mean that I can definitively extend that to other people.

      "Truth" is commonly accepted to be something that is so likely that to withhold provisional belief would be irrational. Sure everything (with a single exception) cannot be proven definitively, but at some point things are so likely true that not believing in them just makes you crazy.

      So, proving this whole issue and claiming the prize money would involve demonstrating that believing in practical quantum computers would be unreasonable. And that is perfectly reasonably possible.

      But one has to realize the ambiguity of the word "prove" here. There is absolute proof of certainty (for instance most mathematical proofs), while just about everything else lies in a range of "yeah, probably." Newton's Laws of Motion were proven correct time and time again, until we eventually started noticing very small errors, and even yet today, while we know that Newton's Laws of Motion aren't the most accurate model, we still know that it's often "good enough".

      --
      WARNING! This girl exceeds the MAXIMUM SAFE standards established by the FDA for BRATTINESS
  8. Re:D-Wave sold a commercial Quantum computer in 20 by harperska · · Score: 3, Insightful

    When the status quo was a room full of vacuum tubes, I doubt that the way forward (solid state transistors) was as clear as you suggest. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. There is a vast world of difference between making smaller, faster, better vacuum tubes, and making a transistor. So I think GP's suggestion that we are in the vacuum tube era of quantum computing is reasonable, and we are waiting on the equivalent of a quantum transistor to make quantum computing feasible.

  9. Re:D-Wave sold a commercial Quantum computer in 20 by HomelessInLaJolla · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The physics of oscillating crystals, such as those used in microphones and phonograph needles as well as radio transmitters, indicates that quantum computing could never not exist. Matched oscillating crystals have been in use for thousands of years and the mathematical model is proven by hundreds of different laboratory and home appliances; eg. an infrared spectrophotometric detector. The emission and absorption frequencies predicted by the mathematical model of the particle in a box (the basis for calculating electron dispersion around the nucleus and the fundamental beginning for subatomic calculations).

    Particle in a box model translates into equations known as the Hamiltonian and, in combination with Eigenvalues calculated from the variables used in particle in a box modeling, generates the Schroedinger equation. Quantum computing could never be nonexistent because the mathematics of matched oscillating subatomic particles already has been proven millions of times over.

    The marathon runner was not reporting a successful war campaign. The marathon runner was part of a system proving that those crystals do indeed oscillate, matched, from across the universe (at least 26.2 miles), in real time. Begin counting, begin running, when you arrive, repeat what they said back to them and report your current number. They will determine if your number matches theirs and if you repeat the exact words they said.

    One aspect of the inside joke is that, when the marathon runner arrived and made his report, the response from the priests was,"That's _NOT_ what we said!" and they promptly hit him over the head with a baseball bat in frustration over the not completely failed experiment. "Don't tell anyone that he made it."

    --
    the NPG electrode was replaced with carbon blac
  10. Re:D-Wave sold a commercial Quantum computer in 20 by pscottdv · · Score: 3, Interesting

    People were already working on solid-state transistors in 1946. The main difficulty was growing pure enough crystals.

    Even without solid state transistors, computers would have continued to get more powerful and require less maintenance per tube as vacuum tubes improved (nothing like what was possible with solid-state transistors, of course). Remember, vacuum tubes themselves were only about 35 years old at that time--lots of improvement in size, power and reliabililty was possible, but work on them stopped when it became clear that transistors were so much better.

    In the case of quantum computers, there are lots of ideas floating around, but no one actually has any clear idea of what will be needed to maintain quantum coherence across a large number of bits. In fact, it is not yet clear that it is possible.

    The D-Wave computer uses quantum annealing which does not require coherence across a large number of bits, but which is also a LOT less useful than one that does.

    --

    this signature has been removed due to a DMCA takedown notice

  11. Re:Like the cat by spire3661 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Science isnt about being right or wrong, its about looking for the answer, whatever it may be. Schroedinger posed a fantastic, perspective-altering question, and you dismiss it as 'pseudo-science'

    --
    Good-bye
  12. Re:Like the cat by PaladinAlpha · · Score: 5, Informative

    This is a gross misunderstanding of the Schrodinger's cat thought experiment, and something of a fallacious presentation of it.

    I don't think there was ever any doubt that a cat locked in a box for a sufficient length of time would expire. That is neither in doubt nor interesting.

    The formulation deals with the status of a cat in a box present with some measuring apparatus capable of detecting decay of some isotope, linked to a sealed capsule of some poison, in a sealed container with a cat. Supposing the isotope has a roughly 50% chance of decaying in the next five minutes, and iff it decays the poison is released (killing the cat), after five minutes is the cat alive or dead?

    The "collapse the waveform pseudo-science b***s***" here is simply translating the simultaneous probabilistic states into a single actual one. The reason this is relevant is in quantum mechanics there are real, measurable effects that occur as a result of the probabilistic waveform that differ from the effects of the collapsed state -- once you know whether the cat is alive or dead, in other words, you have a fundamentally different system than before it was observed.

  13. Re:I think quantum computers do not scale by ImprovOmega · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's not logarithmic, it's sqrt(). For a given number of bits (n) adding 1 extra bit requires n additional entanglements. Thus for n-qubits you must have n(n-1)/2 = (n^2 - n) / 2 entanglements. Doubling that increases the difficulty quadratically instead of linearly, but it's not the exponential growth in difficulty that you're implying.