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Higgs Signal Gains Strength

ananyo writes "Today the two main experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, the world's most powerful particle accelerator, submitted the results of their latest analyses. The new papers (here here and here) boost the case for December's announcement of a possible Higgs signal. Physicists working on the In the case of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, have been able to look at another possible kind of Higgs decay, and that allows them to boost their Higgs signal from 2.5 sigma to 3.1 sigma. Taken together with data from the other detector, ATLAS, Higgs' overall signal now unofficially stands at about 4.3 sigma."

32 of 189 comments (clear)

  1. Damn... by zero.kalvin · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Personally I wish if the higgs didn't exist, it would make things exciting ( from a scientific point of view). But if it doesn't, it would be a huge setback for particle physicist.

  2. Eh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I left my statistics degree in my other pants... is 4.3 sigma a good thing? How many sigmas is "certainty"?

    1. Re:Eh? by zero.kalvin · · Score: 4, Informative

      Certainty ? from a scientific point of view ? infinite! Sigmas in a way tells how probable is to get these results, the more sigmas you have means that the more improbable to get these results without invoking some other model/theory etc etc. So 4.3 is good but not good enough, we need at least 5 sigmas. (What said is not 100% correct, but a rough explanation) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    2. Re:Eh? by ArAgost · · Score: 4, Informative

      4.3 sigma corresponds to a confidence level of 99,998292% (credit to Wolfram|alpha). This is about as certain as death and taxes if compared to “everyday” events, but maybe it's not enough for theoretical physicists (I'm not one).

    3. Re:Eh? by olsmeister · · Score: 5, Informative

      I think they usually require 5 sigma (99.9999426697%) for it to be official.

    4. Re:Eh? by nomel · · Score: 5, Informative

      Stupidly assuming you're talking American "football", 119.99993120364 yards, or 0.00247666896 inches from the line.

    5. Re:Eh? by mikael · · Score: 3, Informative

      Wikipedia has a good explanation at The 68-95-99.7

      How many sigmas you have is a way of summarizing how much area of the bell curve is covered or how far along to one end point the bell curve you are. Being further along means less chance of error

      From the page:
      +/- 1 sigma = 1 in 3 chances of being wrong
      +/- 2 sigma = 1 in 22
      +/- 3 sigma = 1 in 81
      +/- 4 sigma = 1 in 15,787
      +/- 5 sigma = 1 in 7,444,278
      +/- 6 sigma = 1 in 506,797,346
      +/- 7 sigma = 1 in 390,682,215,445

      --
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    6. Re:Eh? by Seraphim1982 · · Score: 4, Informative

      You managed to get the values for both 3 sigma, and 5 sigma wrong
      +/- 3 sigma = 1 in 370 (which is what clued me into them being wrong, 1/81 + 0.997 isn't close to 1)
      +/- 5 sigma = 1 in 1,744,278

    7. Re:Eh? by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 5, Funny

      I left my statistics degree in my other pants... is 4.3 sigma a good thing? How many sigmas is "certainty"?

      It's not good enough. They've got a good way to go before they achieve Six Sigma.

      To make that goal, these scientists should probably go on a retreat, spend some time on team building exercises, and practice dynamic solution strategies, so that they can build up the synergies they need to deliver agile, customer-facing world class results that deliver a genuine Six Sigma experience.

    8. Re:Eh? by epine · · Score: 3, Informative

      This dialog is a bit of a mess, but makes some good points: Taleb on Antifragility

      These talks come with very loose transcripts. Here's the key passage at length as I shamelessly promote Taleb's upcoming book Antifragility , through I'm already certain I only agree with two-thirds of what he is putting forth (emphasis mine):

      It's because of convexity effects, because small probability is very convex to error. [] Take the Gaussian distribution. And actually in a separate paper I finally proved something that has taken me three years. Take a very thin-tailed distribution such as the Gaussian. Thin-tailed, the normal distribution. You have two inputs, one of which is standard deviation. Standard deviation is very much your error. Now, if you take a remote event, say, 6, 7, 8 sigmas, you increase the standard deviation away from the mean; you increase the sigma by 10%, the probability of that is multiplied by several thousand, several million, several billion, several trillions. So, what you have, you have nonlinearity of remote events to sigma, to the standard deviation of the distribution. And that, in fact if you have uncertainty, the smallest uncertainty you have in the estimation of the standard deviation, the higher the small probability becomes and at the same time, the bigger the mistake you are going to have about the small probability. So, in other words, most of the uncertainty in parameterizing the model, most of the tails. So, you take an event like Fukushima, you see, where they said it should happen every million years; you perturbate probabilities a little bit and one in a million becomes one in thirty. Or the financial crisis. Or anything.

      Some of those sigmas are model guards, not actual certainty.

    9. Re:Eh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      So what you are saying is his transcription is accurate, to +/- 1 sigma?

    10. Re:Eh? by subreality · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sigmas in a way tells how probable is to get these results

      To be pedantic, it's a measure of the probability that random chance caused these results. A 4.3 sigma result means that if you just fed white noise into the sensors, you would get a result this strong 0.001% of the time - or to put it another way, if you run the test 100,000 times with absolutely no real signal, one of them will probably have a result this good.

      The important distinction is that this is not a measure of "how likely we are right". There is a 1 in 100,000 chance that random luck caused this result, but there is also an unknown and hard to quantify possibility that our theory is wrong and some other mechanism caused this result.

    11. Re:Eh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      All this is under pure mathematician's "null-hypothesis" assumptions. That is, we have a 99.999999999% confidence level of being right, unless we are making any mistake in our set of thousands of assumptions, there is any miscalibration, any fundamental error, systematic errors, ...

      But this is not a mathematical exercise. It is a physics experiment. Knowing how the CMS/ATLAS collaboration works and how politized it is, If there is a (subtle but likely) mistake, then this number means nothing.

      The correct reading would be: "we are 99.99999999% (or whatever) sure that if we are wrong it is not due to a purely random statistic fluctuation"

      Other than that 5-sigma is a mere convention on when to trigger a press conference to declare "discovery"

    12. Re:Eh? by thegarbz · · Score: 5, Funny

      This is about as certain as ... taxes ...

      Doesn't that make it 99%?

  3. 12/21/2012 by bryan1945 · · Score: 4, Funny

    Full blown Higgs signal. And the world will turn inside out and we will become Mole People and mocked by a future human and his 2 robot friends.

    --
    Vote monkeys into Congress. They are cheaper and more trustworthy.
  4. Re:Net economic loss? by Lohrno · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I am frankly shocked that you can say something like this. Of course it's a loss. But just because the results are not immediately applicable to anything does not mean it's worthless. This kind of research increases our knowledge of how the universe works, and that in and of itself is definitely worth publicly funding. We are increasing the sum of human knowledge. There is almost nothing more important.

  5. Only the first step by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is only the first step. What the data suggests is that there's probably a particle there -- however, the higgs has several important properties that are impossible to measure with this dataset yet -- like its spin0 property. Chances are though, that because of how this data fits in with the higgs predicted mass, it really is the higgs.

  6. Cool. But can it be used as a grammar checker? by ScentCone · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So, we can detect Higgs but we can't detect multiple typos in the damn summary? Really?

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    1. Re:Cool. But can it be used as a grammar checker? by Zaiff+Urgulbunger · · Score: 3, Funny

      So, we can detect Higgs but we can't detect multiple typos in the damn summary? Really?

      I've just checked... There is no TYPO detector at CERN so that'll explain that problem!

  7. Re:Net economic loss? by sakdoctor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Synchrotron light source
    Super conducting wire
    Positron emission tomography

  8. Re:Net economic loss? by rubycodez · · Score: 5, Interesting

    positron emissions have medical application http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positron_emission_tomography

    strangely enough, application using one particle, the anti-neutrino, is in the works for reactor monitoring.

    muons might be used to catalyze fusion or reduce lifespan of nuclear waste (with fusion products of catalyzed reaction

    you are foolish, how can we engineer with the universe's components if we don't learn all we can about them?

  9. Re:Net economic loss? by Tapewolf · · Score: 5, Insightful

    How many millions of euro of taxpayer money have gone into this project, which will interest only a handful of scientists?

    Approximately $9B, over 15 years, split between 20 nations. So on average, about $30M/year per country. Compared to Iraq or Afghanistan, that's a rounding error. Whatever may or may not come out of the Large Hadron Collider, I rather doubt either of those wars is going to show any ROI.

  10. Re:Net economic loss? by JoeRobe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I bet they said the same thing about electrons, protons, and neutrons several decades ago. The positron is also an important particle in positron emission tomography, which has certainly saved lives. The research that went into the production of these facilities has also yielded very useful things, such as particle counting and cryogenics (neither of which was invented by particle physicists but certainly vastly improved upon by them).

    Oh yeah, and the world wide web was invented at CERN, so I guess that was kind of important too...

    --
    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
  11. Re:Net economic loss? by crunchygranola · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's hard to see this search for the Higgs as anything other than a net economic loss. No work on exotic particles (that is, anything other than the proton, neutron, electron and photon that we've known for a century) has ever produced any useful technology...

    People receiving pion radiation therapy would disagree, I think. How about muon imaging of geological and man-made structures? Neutrino imaging of the Earth? There you have three particles (or more depending on how you count the neutrinos) being used for practical purposes that you leave out.

    --
    Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
  12. Re:Let's not get too excited about 4.3sigma by timeOday · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Apparently, the superbowl coin toss "experiment" has generated nearly as large a statistical anomaly...

    Not really, because that was only "predicted" after it occurred. That's cheating. In other words, if you sift through millions of events discarding all the "likely" ones (such as coin tosses in other sports, or regular season NFL games, that didn't show any consistency), it is extremely likely you'll eventually find an "unlikely" one.

    In contrast, the criteria for detecting the Higgs Boson were set ahead of time.

    By the way, the NFC lost the coin toss last Sunday.

  13. Re:Net economic loss? by slew · · Score: 3, Informative

    Let's see, do any of these require exotic particle theory?

    Synchrotron light source? Uses good old maxwell equations to steer electron beams with magnetic fields to make x-ray radiation...

    Super conducting wire? The most viable theory behind cooper pairing is QM electron-phonon interaction which doesn't need any exotic particle theory...

    PET? That uses simple radioactive sugar (where glucose is fluoridated with radioactive fluorine-18) and the resulting gamma ray decays are imaged...

    Not to say that standard-model exotic particle theory isn't interesting, or doesn't explain certain physical things or certain astrophysical phenomena, but unlike QM, theoretical work on exotic particles has yet to prove economically useful. Century old QM theory on the other hand has helped us design flash memory, lasers, GMR disk drive heads, IC lithographic equipment, and has proven useful for racetrack memory, spintronics, quantum dot memory and maybe some day (economical) quantum computers.

    Perhaps the time will come for standard-model sub-atomic theory being a big economic payback, but it hasn't happened yet. This might have a lot to do with the fact that other than the standard Hadrons (proton, neutron), and the electron and photons, and practically invisible neutrino, we don't see much, if any, of the other ones except as cosmic radiation or inside particle accelerators, which means economically they are more of nuisance than something to exploit. Who knows, maybe the even the standard model is wrong and we won't see anything economically useful from this theory on exotic particles, but maybe its sucessor theory. We just don't know yet.

    It's easy to overestimate the impact of new theories. I'll wager that most cars today are still designed mostly assuming newtonian dynamics, and even more primitively, they got to the moon with a very low precision value for pi. Someday theories prove their worth, just like QM so it's worth investing, but overstating the case isn't being intellectually honest.

    To bring a more understandable analogy to the current audience. If you are a computer programmer, your boss may indirectly use Turing computability theory to claim that it isn't impossible for you to write a program to do what he wants it to do, and perhaps P~NP might be something in the back of your mind when you look for algorithms, but the latest computability theory about NP-intermediate set problems probably doesn't yet have any economic value to anyone (after all, they are still NP problems even if not NP-complete). Might be valueable some day, though...

  14. Re:Net economic loss? by Bovius · · Score: 5, Funny

    That was almost a haiku if you drag "wire" out into two syllables, but the last line completely strays. What about this?

    Synchrotron light source
    Positron tomography
    Superconductors

  15. circumlocutionary; didn't read by sakdoctor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    High-energy physics research has created extremely beneficial spin-off of technology, without being the primary purpose of that research.

  16. Re:Net economic loss? by msevior · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Those 3 things are technologies developed by Experimental Particle Physicists who wanted to test Particle Physics Theory.

    Then there is this little thing called the world-wide-web invented by this guy Tim Burners-Lee to enable Particle Physics working at CERN to better collaborate.

    Do these spin-offs count to CERN or Particle Physics net economic worth?

  17. Re:Net economic loss? by Beeftopia · · Score: 4, Insightful

    “Science is like sex: sometimes something useful comes out of it, but that is not the reason we are doing it. ”

      Richard P. Feynman

  18. Perhaps a Waste of Time by Niscenus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    To respond to this so late, but...

    Normally, when dotters take to correcting a post en mass, there isn't a reason to cover anything; however, the logic of, "We got these things 25-50 years later from a theory, but anything that doesn't contribute this quarter is a waste of money," would be sufficient to kill the theory of economic value versus investment. We got lots of things from the money dumped on the Space Race and the succeeding era, but from a dollar in to dollar out that month, year or even decade perspective, it wouldn't have appeared to be that affordable, even though those technologies, from fuel cells (more than just one type), to photovoltaics, to advanced ceramics and plastics, account for more economic profit today than the most expensive year of the US Independent Space Exploration Era.

    I, however, wanted to plug, in a non-spammy way, a couple of places on YouTube that shows current payoff. While it doesn't focus on the LHC, it's a follow up on technologies that are otherwise related to what is being done at the LHC.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/BackstageScience?feature=g-all-s#p/u/43/12KaFItjgl0
    This is YT Channel BackstageScience, with a feature call for the video titled, "Lap of a Synchotron". In this video (as well as the many in that list), you will find discussion about many of the assists to, primarily, materials science that comes from the many research activities in the beamline branches.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/DiamondLightSource
    This is the same facility, but these videos are more on the individual research projects going on at that facility.

    Synchotrons are relatively expensive, and when they were the new thing, they were more expensive to construct, maintain and run than many infrastructure projects; they were the LHC of their time. Now, we have safer planes, improved medicine and more advanced super- and semi-conductors. Intentionally producing nanoparticles has been a relatively new thing for commercial industries, but that new economy is entirely dependent on technology like the synchotron.

    BackstageScience has a video titled, :"Muon Man", which is an interview with one of the scientists in general. If you asked someone 25 years ago what practical applications existed for muons, you would have been told they can be used to detect time dilation in accordance to Special relativity or changes in a protons charge field. Today, we use the to detect restricted radio-active materials and peer into the inner workings of large-scale geological activities, which will eventually allows us to detect volcanic eruptions and, quite possibly, earth quakes.

    With regard to this specific project, the LHC's job is to understand the fundamental structures of energy at very small scales. The idea it's stuck on the Higgs boson research shows a lot of ignorance, but the kind one might expect from the limited understanding that comes from someone who would say, "[A]nything other than the proton, neutron, electron and photon," is exotic or has never produced any useful technology. E^2=M^2C^4+P^2C^2 has brought us anti-matter, which eventually led to improved medical technologies. The fact is, large projects, like the LHC, are necessary for such advancements, but too expensive for even a single portion of the economic spectrum to manage for the initial time between theory and application. To say it was too expensive because you can't see any advantage in it shows a failure of understanding how doctorates lead to economic and social advantages. Perhaps you should join slashdot with the moniker Lysenko, so, we will all know how ignorant you are about the importance of advancing science through large scale. publicly funded projects.

    --
    "Yeah...it was the numbers that were irrational, not the murderous cult of vegetarians...." -- Hippasus of Metapontum
  19. Re:Net economic loss? by w0mprat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's hard to see this search for the Higgs as anything other than a net economic loss. No work on exotic particles (that is, anything other than the proton, neutron, electron and photon that we've known for a century) has ever produced any useful technology...

    People receiving pion radiation therapy would disagree, I think. How about muon imaging of geological and man-made structures? Neutrino imaging of the Earth? There you have three particles (or more depending on how you count the neutrinos) being used for practical purposes that you leave out.

    One could have said the same thing about what Farrady found about electromagnetism, that the economic benefit wasn't much. The practical application of the higgs field we can only guess at now, but being able to dick about with the mass/inertia of matter for instance would have truly epic applications. This is about as insightful as saying in 1825 that electricity might be able to be used to make stuff move. Look how that technological revolution turned out.

    It may not be very useful but it could equally well be the opposite. However from any particular point in history you can pretty much trace the current state of technological civilization back to some discovery at some point. I seem to notice a correlation between the effort in the discovery and how it transformed everything.

    The higgs is a big deal for the future of mankind, if you don't immediately understand that it's kind of difficult to explain why.

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