Texas Supercomputer Upgrading the Hurricane Forecast

aarondubrow writes "Researchers used the Ranger supercomputer to test a new, high-resolution hurricane forecasting system that incorporates Doppler radar data from planes flying into the storm. The forecasts were shown to improve intensity predictions by an average of 20 to 40 percent over the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The prediction system is being hailed as a breakthrough and is one of a handful being assessed by the NHC to become part of the operational forecasting system used in emergency situations."

Comments

Badly needed

[dtmos]

As TFA states, while the location predictions have been improving significantly, the best hurricane intensity predictions are only slightly better than what can be obtained from a Ouija board. (No offense intended to those in the field; I know it's a tough problem.)

Just defining "intensity" in a useful way can be difficult. For example, if Storm A has a region in the Northeast quadrant with 100 mph (161 km/h) winds, but elsewhere winds do not exceed 80 mph (129 km/h), and Storm B has 100 mph (161 km/h) winds in all four quadrants, both have the same max wind speed. Which is more intense? What if Storm B has 95 mph (153 km/h) winds in all four quadrants? What if the two storms have the same wind speeds, but are different sizes? If Storm C has lower wind speed than Storm D but, due to its slower forward speed or other reasons, drops five times as much rain, which one was the more intense storm?

When I counsel high school and college students, I always tell them to "work on important problems." Even though I make a point of saying that the definition of "important" is "what's important to you," I am always asked for examples of "important problems." Getting better hurricane intensity forecasts is one of the examples I always mention.

Re:Badly needed

[Captain Splendid]

Which is more intense?

No one cares. Honestly. Because anyone who lives in hurricane zones is already well acquainted with quadrants and which side of the hurricane they'd rather be on when it passes by.

As long as this is an overall step up quantifying and predicting hurricanes, those little details like that will only matter to the specialists and parsers such as yourself. Everybody on the ground will just be happy that things got a little more refined and predictable.

Re:Badly needed

[dtmos]

It doesn't seem that bad.

Um, sorry, but speak to your climatologist first. These storms are big, and the problem is that, when they come ashore, each location will experience a different wind profile. Thus there is no single "average" wind speed to forecast upon landfall -- every location will experience something different, and listing some kind of two-dimensional overall average of the storm isn't much help: Not only do the storms vary significantly in size, but the size of the eye varies significantly, too. To make matters still worse, there's a phenomenon called eyewall replacement, resulting in an effective eye diameter that varies in size over time (along with the maximum wind speed).

It is true that there will be a maximum wind speed in the storm, and that it will usually -- but not always -- be in the right side of the eye wall for storms in the northern hemisphere. However, at the moment there is no detailed forecast of the size of the area having those peak winds, so it's very difficult for emergency officials to plan for the devastated area.

Also speak to your climatologist about your misunderstandings about hurricane wind fields. They are rarely symmetrical, due to interactions with approaching weather fronts, other nearby storms, forward movement of the storm itself, and other factors. A truly symmetrical storm, like Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico, is notable because of its symmetry. The US Navy tropical storm forecasts include the radius of 34-, 50-, and 64-knot winds away from the center for each quadrant of the storm, and you will find differences of many tens of nautical miles between quadrants.

Upgraded to Guess from Wild Ass Guess.

[trout007]

Some more advances and we will be at Educated Guess.

Re:Automation, tok r jerbs

[icebike]

Why not replace the hurricane plane with a bunch of drones equipped for the task. Then you could have a half dozen flying around the hurricane at the same time. Yes that is just moving the pilot from the cockpit to command room (or where ever they sit), until they make them autonomous.

Given the loss of life record for hurricane hunter planes, the case for drones simply hasn't been made.

The last hurricane hunter lost was in 1974, the prior one in 1955. Far more of these planes were damaged on the ground than in the air.

Its doubtful drones would survive anywhere near as successfully, or produce anywhere near as much good data. Storms change slowly. An hour by hour measurement system is not warranted, and all of the tracking work (and an increasing amount of the measurement work) can be done by satellite.