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Cloud To Create 14 Million Jobs? Not So Much

jfruh writes "Did you hear about the study from Microsoft and IDC (PDF), declaring that adoption of cloud technologies would create 14 million jobs? Well, don't believe the hype. The study posts that, once small and medium business can use cloud products to just eliminate their IT department, they'll use those savings to hire people for their core business. It's a dubious proposition, and one that wouldn't be good news for IT workers even if things do play out that way."

19 of 264 comments (clear)

  1. horse manure gatherers out of jobs by Surt · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The revolution of automotive transport put a lot of horse dung collectors out of work too. Society should advance. Period. That that means some jobs are erased is a good thing. Whenever jobs are erased, it represents a freeing of human minds to focus on even more productive tasks.

    --
    "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    1. Re:horse manure gatherers out of jobs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Like pumping gas, for example...

    2. Re:horse manure gatherers out of jobs by elrous0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, I saw a bunch of freed people in front of the unemployment office just the other day. Thought about stopping to tell them how lucky they are, but they looked kind of angry.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    3. Re:horse manure gatherers out of jobs by scamper_22 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That is only true if society is allowed to adjust to the new conditions.

      Yes, being more efficient means, we should be able to use that human capital to engage in new industries or reduce the work in current industries.

      For example, lets say the cloud is amazing and we end up with huge numbers of unemployed IT workers. Theoretically, we should be able to take these workers and do one of two things

      1. We reduce the work load in existing jobs. So for example, we end up with more teachers, lawyers, nurses, accountants... and the workload in those industries drops. We might end up with people working only 20 hours a week in such cases as the current jobs are redistributed. Wonderful stuff. That is how we've been able to achieve more leisure time.

      2. The new labor is allocated to new fields. So maybe these unemployed IT workers become solar panel designers or something.

      Things are always the same... until they're different
      .
      I believe 2 is much less likely to be a driver of mass jobs. While we will most certainly have more inventions and new fields, they will likely not be mass employers. Most likely, they will employ a few highly skilled designers. Anything else will be highly automated. I don't for example think the green revolution will generate the kinds of jobs we used to see in the old industrial age.

      So we're left with 1. The problem is our society will not let this happen. For one, everyone is scared of deflation... and well... reduced work hours might very well mean less money in each person's pocket... so deflation. Special interests also hate egalitarianism. How would lawyers or doctors or public sector workers feel, if they earned no more than the average person? They are used to earning more than the average person. So they are unlikely to want to give up their position of privilege.

      So while theoretically, society is always better off via efficiency, I wouldn't be so quick to simply dismiss concerns.

      We do not live in any kind of a free market where such things can self-adjust.

      More than likely, we'll see the special interests continue to try and hold onto their positions of privilege and refuse to redistribute the workload to their fellow citizens. This results in mass unemployment while the special interests cling to power. They also won't accept levels of taxation that would allow the government to redistribute work to everyone.

      Hey, isn't this happening in Europe as we speak?
      Not to mention the huge unemployment in the US.

      It's great to talk about the benefits of the free market. But you should realize we don't live in one... and the results can be catastrophic if you simply apply free market ideas to systems which have little to do with a free market.

      While you dismiss everything and say society should advance... I certainly don't see it as a positive thing if society starts having mass unemployment or plunging into mass deficits collapsing economies and social unrest.

    4. Re:horse manure gatherers out of jobs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yup, trickle down economics. That's been working marvellously well, hasn't it?

  2. Re:Sounds good by jaymz666 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The IT monkeys will still be around and needed to keep your PC running, it's the actual skilled IT that will be losing work.

  3. Oh brother by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    When are we going to accept that technology SHOULD be used to eliminate jobs and create more free time for more people? We need a SOCIAL change, urgently. Work shouldn't always be about moving wealth upwards while we scramble around in a "Hunger Games"-type society.

    1. Re:Oh brother by Sarten-X · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is that we still use jobs, income, and money as a means for distributing food, health care, and other things necessary for life. It'd be great if technology meant more free time, but still enough income to support an average quality of life, but that's not yet the case.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
  4. Isn't that the point? by jaymz666 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Isn't the point of the cloud to move all these services to central locations where they are managed by fewer people?

  5. Sure.. by wbr1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Once we automate the factories, we will hire more managers and executives.
    Once we outsource the call centers we will hire more technicians.
    Once we use all the oil we will invent something else.

    I have prime swampland for sale in the Sahara too.

    We have to get use to the fact that not all people will be producers in our society and that percentage of non producers will continue to increase. Does that mean that they have no right to a decent life? This is the future we wanted, where things are becoming more automated and peoples lives become easier. Is it really making anything easier. I would say no until we have a sea change in our socioeconomic views.

    --
    Silence is a state of mime.
    1. Re:Sure.. by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Does that mean that they have no right to a decent life?

      Yes, the folks in charge want the 3rd world model, or the roman empire right before the fall model, where a couple people own everything, and everyone else is in extreme poverty.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  6. Re:Sounds good by jaymz666 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because those jobs will be concentrated in fewer service provider centers, requiring fewer people to manage them.

  7. More likely to go into bonuses than hiring by elrous0 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The study posts that, once small and medium business can use cloud products to just eliminate their IT department, they'll use those savings to hire people for their core business.

    Or they'll just put it towards profits and big bonuses for the CEO and senior staff, creating no jobs at all.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  8. It is called progress by perbu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    and it leads to increased efficiency. Those people can on to fulfill other functions. This is mainly the reason we're not all farmers anymore like in the stone age.

  9. Re:Sounds good by BitterOak · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Because those jobs will be concentrated in fewer service provider centers, requiring fewer people to manage them.

    Isn't that what progress is supposed to be about: accomplishing the same tasks with less labor?

    --
    If I can be modded down for being a troll, can I be modded up for being an orc, or a balrog?
  10. Re:Sounds good by vlm · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why wouldn't the actual skilled IT people go work for the cloud service providers, again?

    You can't insert a profitable intermediary in between the same IT people and the old company without cutting jobs somehow. Supposedly centralization will result in fewer people doing more work, so less employees allow a layer of profitable intermediaries.

    So you'll have 10 former IT guys and 3 jobs. The other 7, well there's always soylent green. Oh well.

    The other problem is just being realistic, the 10 former IT guys will be in the US and the 3 new jobs will be in India. So its more like all 10 will go soylent green.

    --
    "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  11. Adapt or Die by jholyhead · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If the industry shifts and you no longer need as many IT staff, so be it. Throughout history, advances in technology have wiped out entire professions - when was the last time you met a fletcher, tanner or a pencil and paper draughtsman? This would be no different. Technology progress inevitably makes some people's professions redundant, but they also open new doors. It is for those at risk of obsolescence to spot the trend and make the transition to one of those shiny new doors before their existing one slams shut in their face.

    I say bring it on.

  12. As soon as you hear the phrase "create jobs"... by John+Hasler · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...you might as well walk away. What follows is always bullshit.

    --
    Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  13. Yes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Labor-saving technologies are only viable in the market if they ultimately eliminate more human labor than they create. New technologies, apart from entertainment applications, *always* eliminate jobs in the long run. Either that or they don't get adopted.

    Eliminating jobs is their primary purpose. Promising that they will create jobs is a direct lie intended to win the hearts and minds of the very people who will be put out of work.

    Eliminating jobs is a *good* purpose. If the machines do our work for us, then we don't have to. Of course, there are economic consequences, especial since traditional capitalistic values don't work well in an environment with a very high percentage of automated labor. However, these are secondary concerns to the advancement of humanity.