What To Do About an Asteroid That Has a 1 In 625 Chance of Hitting Us In 2040?

The Bad Astronomer writes "The asteroid 2011 AG5 is 140 meters across: football-stadium-sized. Its orbit isn't nailed down well enough to say yet, but using what's currently known, there's a 1 in 625 chance it will impact the Earth in 2040. It's behind the Sun until September 2013, and more observations taken then will probably reduce the odds of impact to something close to 0. But does it make sense to wait until then to start investigating a mission to deflect it away our planet? Astronomers are debating this right now, and what they conclude may pave the way for how we deal with an asteroid threat in the future."

Comments

I will be doing one thing about it.

[Anonymous Coward]

Praying it hits. That would be so awesome!

Re:I will be doing one thing about it.

[Lotana]

140 meters diameter doesn't sound like much. Depends on the composition and speed, it will be reduced even further before making it to the ground. I immagine it shouldn't be much worse than a Tunguska event and seeing how majority of the planet is uninhabited, chances are good that no major number of lifes will be lost.

And if it occurs at a location where we can monitor/record, it will bring awareness that rocks in space do indeed end up on our planet in our lifetimes, thus worthwile to think about. Therefore having this pebble hit us might not be such a bad thing after all.

Re:I will be doing one thing about it.

[Spiridios]

140 meters diameter doesn't sound like much. Depends on the composition and speed, it will be reduced even further before making it to the ground. I immagine it shouldn't be much worse than a Tunguska event and seeing how majority of the planet is uninhabited, chances are good that no major number of lifes will be lost.

And if it occurs at a location where we can monitor/record, it will bring awareness that rocks in space do indeed end up on our planet in our lifetimes, thus worthwile to think about. Therefore having this pebble hit us might not be such a bad thing after all.

Just some numbers for reference:

• Meteor Crater was possibly around 40 meters across.
• Tunguska was possibly around 60 meters across.
• Yucatan Dinosaur Killer was possibly around 10 kilometers across.

This one is 140 meters across.

Re:I will be doing one thing about it.

[Lotana]

True, but the remaining variables are the composition and how much actually makes it down to the surface.

Lets use some numbers in the calculator from the quick Google search:

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

- We are hit with 140 meters perfect sphere of dense stone
- Speed of projectile is 17 km/s (Calculator states that it is the typical speed for asteroid impace)
- Entry angle of 45% (Again based on the caluculator stated most likely)
- Rock lands into 1000 meter depth water. Random figure

Results:
1 km away

20 km away

100 km away

Reading the descriptions, it honestly doesn't sound like such a calamity. At 100 km distance it is hardly felt.

Re:I will be doing one thing about it.

[wisty]

Um. Not really. http://idisk.mac.com/mpaineau-Public/paine_tsunami_asteroid99.pdf

The assumption people make is that all the kinetic energy goes into a wave. That's not a given. It can dissipate as heat as the meteor falls through the water, or create incoherent waves. The Indian Ocean tsunami was so bad because the plate "flicked" up, splashing the water. It might be more like punching the water, which would still make a bit of a splash; but it might not make a huge wave.

That said, I wouldn't be swimming anywhere near it.

Re:I will be doing one thing about it.

[edxwelch]

Huh? It says 72 Megaton explosion. That's bigger than than the largest nuclear bomb ever detonated.

Well obviously...

[tylersoze]

Decisions of how to deal with the massive asteroid are best left to the individual.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/republicans-vote-to-repeal-obamabacked-bill-that-w,19025/

18 months won't matter

[Anonymous Coward]

Yes it makes sense to wait. Why waste 18 months coming up with solutions to deflect it only to find out it won't strike 27 years from now? If September 2013 rolls around and it looks like it will hit in 2040, 27 years is practically as much time as 28 years to develop a solution.

Slow it down or speed it up just slightly

[gblackwo]

I always liked the plans that involved speeding the asteroid up, or slowing it down just slightly.

I saw a recent idea that involved painting it white in order to decrease absorptivity.

Re:Slow it down or speed it up just slightly

[Jeremi]

I saw a recent idea that involved painting it white in order to decrease absorptivity.

The real trick is to make it look like you're having so much fun repainting it that all the other countries demand to be allowed to repaint it as well.

Re:Set a reminder for 20 years from now

[kat_skan]

In 2040 Bruce Willis will be 85. What's he gonna do? Tell the asteroid to get off his lawn?

Let's settle the argument...

[Anonymous Coward]

Wherever it hits, those are the people that God hates most. End of debate.

Re:I don't see the problem.

[CrimsonAvenger]

It's too small to be a civilization-killer. We're only talking a gigaton-range boom when it impacts.

Yeah, it would suck to be under it, or even within a couple hundred miles of it, but beyond that, it's mostly just a lightshow and something to keep the bookies busy.

Re:Easy answer

[Austerity Empowers]

get laid

This is about an asteroid that has a 1 in 625 change of hitting earth, not about hell freezing over.

Re:Just...

[Nikker]

Maybe if we launch all the lawyers and rights holders at it they will just take it apart themselves? Just tell them there is a bunch of DVD's in the middle!