Large Solar Flare To Glance Off Earth

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Large Solar Flare To Glance Off Earth

Posted by samzenpus on Wednesday March 7, 2012 @07:57AM from the raise-shields dept.

JoeRobe writes "According to spaceweather.com, a major X5 solar flare is on its way to deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field. This is the second x-class flare to be released by the same sunspot in the past few days, the first being an X1. In both cases, the sunspot (spot 1429) was not directly facing Earth, but it is still active, and poses a threat for a large, Earth-directed flare in the next few days."

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X-Class you say? by masteva · 2012-03-07 08:03 · Score: 4, Funny

So we may finally get some actual X-Men out of this???

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Practice Static Safety - Hack Naked
1. Re:X-Class you say? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:29 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  I've met a few ex-men, I prefer actual women.
Re:It's??? by plover · 2012-03-07 08:04 · Score: 5, Funny

Is that as in "Holy Shit, that solar flare, it's headed right for us!" Because if I'm gonna fry, I don't think I want to spend my last few minutes on Earth surrounded by grammar Nazis.

--
John
Re:It's??? by marcle · 2012-03-07 08:05 · Score: 2, Informative

Obligatory angry flower: http://www.angryflower.com/bobsqu.gif
it's official by hguorbray · 2012-03-07 08:06 · Score: 3, Funny

someone on the sun is shooting at us!

-I'm just sayin'
1. Re:it's official by R3d+M3rcury · 2012-03-07 15:52 · Score: 2
  
  I doubt we'd go to war with the sun. We'd probably just send in some Navy SEALs at night...
Good news by symes · 2012-03-07 08:08 · Score: 3, Interesting

All the cost and possible misery to one side, a big cosmic event like this could do a lot of good. It might just reinvigorate general public's interest in the cosmos. Just seems a bit too quiet these days.
Re:It's??? by SJHillman · 2012-03-07 08:08 · Score: 5, Funny

Grammar Nazis tend to be thin-skinned, so you'll live long enough to see them fry first. Happy thoughts!
Will it make my 28k Dialup connection run slower? by cpu6502 · 2012-03-07 08:10 · Score: 3, Funny

(concerned)
;-)

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My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
Re:it's its by Kozar_The_Malignant · 2012-03-07 08:10 · Score: 2

It's on its way.

--
Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
Scenario by echogen · 2012-03-07 08:11 · Score: 5, Funny

possible scenario:
1- Apple applies for a patent regarding magnetic interference.
2- USPTO grants patent to apple
3- Solar flare
4- Apple suing the sun in Germany!
5- Court prohibits the sun from sending magnetic flares to Germany

--
mmmmm.....
Poses a Threat? by Kozar_The_Malignant · 2012-03-07 08:13 · Score: 4, Funny

Is it paranoid to think that these first two might be a couple of ranging shots?

--
Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
1. Re:Poses a Threat? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:16 · Score: 3, Funny
  
  Is it paranoid to think that these first two might be a couple of ranging shots?
  Yes, yes it is paranoid to think that.
2. Re:Poses a Threat? by gestalt_n_pepper · 2012-03-07 10:04 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  Really? If it's communications are conducted in almost unrecognizable languages, and it's conversations mainly esoterica beyond human concerns, and those discussions happened only over very long periods, they might not only be sentient, but also tenured.
  
  --
  Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:13 · Score: 2, Funny

Could a solar flare affect an asteroid's orbit, like 2012 da14 which they swear will miss us.
1. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:36 · Score: 2, Informative
  
  because light can't make anything move at all...
  radiometers and solar sails are just figments of our imaginations...
  maybe i am just being pedantic...but for the gp yes...the solar flare could affect the asteroid's orbit...however it will probably only be on the order of millimeters over the next thousand years.
  as well as the flashlight would affect the cannonballs trajectory...however likely not enough to be measurable before it hit something.
2. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by ZeroSumHappiness · 2012-03-07 08:39 · Score: 2
  
  But of course the long answer is "Yes, but not enough to matter."
3. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by g0bshiTe · 2012-03-07 08:52 · Score: 2
  
  Apparently light can move matter. http://www.physorg.com/news152456596.html
  
  Granted I doubt a solar flare would affect an asteroid, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.
  
  --
  I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
4. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by John+Hasler · 2012-03-07 08:53 · Score: 2
  
  Yes, very, very slightly, as could any of the numerous flares and other changes in solar emissions that will occur between now and 2040. That is one of the reasons why the asteroid's future path is uncertain.
  
  --
  Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by nani+popoki · 2012-03-07 08:14 · Score: 5, Informative

1. Don't be too concerned. This is more an issue for astronauts (minor inconvenience) and satellites (possible software outages), unless you live at high latitudes, in which case auroras are cool!
2. X5 is strong but not catastrophic -- this might affect shortwave reception but it's not going to take down the power grid.
1. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by tlhIngan · 2012-03-07 10:44 · Score: 2
  
  X5 is strong but not catastrophic -- this might affect shortwave reception but it's not going to take down the power grid.
  Actually, you're right AND wrong.
  On the X scale, X1 is least and X5 is worst. However, an X5 corresponds to something like a 30mT change in 3 hours of Earth's magnetic field.
  The problem is, X5 is where it stops. Storms of intensity of 300mT/sec have been recorded, and they too would be marked as an X5 (I believe that was the 187x "big one"). The Quebec one was of lower magnitude, but still X5.
  That's been the problem with the scale - it's like measuring hurricanes with a scale that would stop at F2. It doesn't really tell you a whole lot since it can encompass "little damage" to "major flooding, destruction and deaths".
  Or like the bars on a cellphone where it stays at 5 bars until you're at the edge, and then drops to 0 bars over the course of a few feet. Like say, the iPhone 4.
2. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by ShadowBlasko · 2012-03-07 12:10 · Score: 3, Informative
  
  Not even close my friend. We had an X28 about 7 year ago...
  
  --
  There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order- Ed Howdershelt Via Tass
3. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by voidphoenix · 2012-03-07 21:17 · Score: 2
  
  Actually, no, it isn't like hurricane or tornado scales. There are 5 letters that indicate the order of magnitude of the flare's x-ray (100-800 pm) flux (in W/m^2): A (<10^-7), B (10^-7 to 10^-6), C (10^-6 to 10^-5), M (10^-5 to 10^-4) and X (>10^-4). The number after the letter is a multiplier, so an M6 has an x-ray flux of 6x10^-5 W/m^2.
  The scale is open ended, with the largest measured flare (2003-11-04) estimated at X45 (4.5x10^-3 W/m^2). We only have an estimate because the flare saturated the GOES detectors.
  The Carrington Event is generally regarded as the largest flare in recorded history. It caused telegraph systems to catch fire and visible aurorae at least as far south as the Caribbean
  
  --
  Excuse me, wtf r u doin?
No blogspam? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:22 · Score: 2, Funny

A scientific story with no editorializing in TFS and links to the source so I don't have to click through blogspam?
What site am I on?
Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:28 · Score: 2

Really? Please ban that IP. I don't put up with that garbage on XBL and surely won't here.
Pretty lights? by MSesow · 2012-03-07 08:28 · Score: 2

All I ever really want to know when I see something like this is, "Will there be some Auroras where I am?"
1. Re:Pretty lights? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:31 · Score: 3, Funny
  
  In the basement? I sure hope not.
2. Re:Pretty lights? by JoeRobe · 2012-03-07 08:44 · Score: 2
  
  At the lower left of the spaceweather.com site, there's a little chart that tells you the chances of high-latitude and mid-latitude geomagnetic storms over the next 1 and 2 days.
  
  --
  The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Re:It's??? by Ichijo · 2012-03-07 08:29 · Score: 3, Funny

Because if I'm gonna fry, I don't think I want to spend my last few minutes on Earth surrounded by grammar Nazis.

Don't worry, the apostrophe is silent.

--
Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:30 · Score: 2, Insightful

Welcome to the internet.
The moon never pulls shit like this by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:32 · Score: 5, Funny

The moon never pulls shit like this.
from The Onion
the Sun is sentient by Thud457 · 2012-03-07 08:32 · Score: 2

This overly drawn-out Republican primaries anger the Sun God.

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the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Glance off? Looks like a direct hit! by Anonymous Coward · 2012-03-07 08:38 · Score: 2, Informative

check it out here.
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120307_014400_anim.tim-den.gif
too late -- the flare already hit. by oneiros27 · 2012-03-07 08:45 · Score: 5, Informative

The flare travels at the speed of light ... so we've already been hit by it. The CME is what's going to come tomorrow morning (or tonight, depending on your time zone)
And the "spot number" as this article called it is actually NOAA Active Region #11429. I'm sick of this modulo 10000 value -- AR1429 was decades ago. (the list I'm looking at starts at AR6777, which was in August 1991)
I'll leave it for some other time to rant about the difference between 'sunspot number' (a subjective number to describe the amount of spot coverage on the sun in the visible spectrum which goes back centuries) vs. 'active region number' (a NOAA index of spots seen in x-ray)

--
Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
1. Re:too late -- the flare already hit. by oneiros27 · 2012-03-07 14:24 · Score: 2
  
  They've been doing it since AR#9999, which was in June 2002.
  And it's NOAA's doing -- they have a number of different formats they use for distributing information, but they're all fixed-width ASCII files, and very few of them actually use the 5-digit forms. To the best of my knowledge, all of the 'space weather' related products use the 4-digit values, but it's most obvious on the SPE catalog, as that's over a longer period:
  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SRS.txt
  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SGAS.txt
  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/dayobs.txt
  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/dayevt.txt
  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/SPE.txt
  But if you look at the long-term products, they use 5 digit AR numbers:
  ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_XRAY/2010/xray2010
  ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_XRAY/docs/xray.fmt.rev
  Although they occassionaly bounce back and forth, eg:
  ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_HALPHA/Events/2010/f_event.10
  (and for those who wonder why I know this ... it's because I've written parsers to ingest these files into databases so scientists can do statistical analysis ... and there's evidence that some of these have been maintained by hand over the years ... take a look at the SPE catalog -- there's a Jan 2012 event listed, but the header says it runs through March 2011. (they at least tell you what time period they analyzed ... as they have multi-year gaps between some events ... most catalogs don't do that)
  
  --
  Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
Link NOAA model of aurora activity and visibility by RossR · 2012-03-07 08:57 · Score: 4, Informative

NOAA forecast model of aurora activity and visibility
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
If the little red line is south of your location, you might see something (assuming northern hemisphere). So far no love for the lower 48.
Re:It's??? by aix+tom · 2012-03-07 08:57 · Score: 2

Don't worry, Etymology-Man will rescue us. Probably by pointing out that we are not really getting "fried", more like getting "microwaved".
Re:It's??? by mcavic · 2012-03-07 08:59 · Score: 2

Well you just used "==" the wrong way.
Not really. "==" means "that's how it is". "=" means "I declare it that way because I'm the God of grammar".
Re:Carrington Event ? by networkBoy · 2012-03-07 09:23 · Score: 3, Informative

Because in the case of grid failure they will run on diesel generators.
Which are off and relatively safe until the grid blows, which is after the CME is passed, then they start (even if a delay of manual starting is required, no worries). And in this case there is not a wall of seawater to drown the gennes.
-nB

--
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Re:It's??? by Progman3K · 2012-03-07 09:54 · Score: 3, Funny

Programming is their Forth language
FTFY

--
I don't know the meaning of the word 'don't' - J
Then There's AP's coverage by rueger · 2012-03-07 14:02 · Score: 2

You can't make this shit up:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth's magnetic field is about to be shaken like a snow globe by the largest solar storm in five years. After hurtling through space for a day and a half, a massive cloud of charged particles is due to arrive early Thursday and could disrupt utility grids, airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services, especially in northern areas.
Sky, meet Chicken Little.

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Three Squirrels