Healthcare Reform Act Prediction Market

An anonymous reader writes "The Wisconsin School of Business is running a prediction market study on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the Healthcare Reform Act. By participating you will not only be helping university students, you will also get to express your opinion and compete with others to show that you have the most accurate prediction."

Comments

Re:prediction

[roman_mir]

No, I am not saying that at all. I am saying that small/medium sized companies are on razor thin margins and the gov't doesn't give a shit, of-course the big companies will either get exemptions or will be bailed out, the small ones will have to lay people off.

That, by the way, is not inefficient, that is just very dangerous in terms of being able to absorb huge blows, and this is going to be another huge blow by the government, as if all the other stuff, including inflation and real taxes (spending and interest on that) wasn't enough.

Re:Markets aren't any good at prediction

[roman_mir]

Yeah, great, except that the option contract was fucked by a GOVERNMENT DECREE that ALLOWED (by decree of the government) to get out of it with only a 3.5% loss.

That's right, a government decree that said that CONTRACTS DO NOT HAVE TO MEAN ANYTHING is somehow a 'free market failure'?

Well, if this posts (I am probably at limit of my 'karma'), don't take it personally if I don't reply under my name to any of your further ignorant statements.