Russia Threatens Pre-emptive, Destructive Force On US Missile Defense

suraj.sun sends this quote from an article at the BBC: "Russia says it is prepared to use 'destructive force pre-emptively' if the U.S. goes ahead with controversial plans for a missile defense system based in Central Europe. The warning came after the Russian defense minister said talks on missile defense were nearing a dead end. Moscow fears that missile interceptors would be a threat to Russia's security. But the U.S. and NATO say they are intended to protect against attacks from Iran or North Korea. 'A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken if the situation worsens,' chief of the Russian defense staff Gen Nikolai Makarov said. President Barack Obama ... scrapped plans for a network of bases spread across Poland and the Czech Republic with the capacity to intercept long-range missiles. But in 2010, the U.S. signed an agreement with Poland to use an old airstrip at Redzikowo, near the Baltic coast, as a missile defense base."

Comments

Weird

[bradley13]

This is weird on so many levels.

• First, since the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, isn't the cold war over. Why is Russia still rattling sabres? As far as I can tell, they no longer have the ambition of conquering Europe.
• Second, even back in cold-war days, the objections to missile defense were bizarre. MAD was exactly that: "mad". Governments agreeing to *not* defend their respective citizens: truly mad.
• Finally, what the devil is the US doing, putting defenses into Europe? If missile defenses are necessary, Europe is perfectly capable of putting them in all by itself (I say this as a European). Stay home, America, stop spending money you don't have.

So - what's really going on here?

Re:Pot, kettle

[MozeeToby]

It is not a defensive system, not to the Russians anyway. It's true enough that it could be used defensively against Iran and North Korea, but it has an offensive role in an all out war against Russia. It breaks MAD, and while MAD is a ridiculously suicidal way to run a planet, it did manage to get us through the cold war pretty well.

See, here's the thing. The Russians know that even with their aging fleet of ICBMs, they can still overload any conceivable missile defense system. If the US has N interceptors gaurding New York City all Russia has to do is launch N+1 missiles at it (actually considerably less since the interception success rate is going to be much lower in real combat situations). And that ignores all the relatively cheap anti-interception technologies that could be used. So why are they so pissed? Because the US also just happens to also have a fleet of nuclear launch capable submarines, a fleet of stealth bombers, and hundreds of nuclear cruise missiles (which have been mothballed but could be easily brought back into service). A properly designed first strike could hit literally hundreds of targets inside Russia with nuclear weapons with less than 30 minutes warning.

Now, it's kind of hard to coordinate your counter attack when every military base in the country is a glowing glass crater. That's not to say they wouldn't have missiles, they'd have plenty, and the commanders in charge of them would have the authority to launch them, but launch them where? Without the communication and planning, the counter attack is going to be staggered, disorganized, and concentrated. Exactly the situation where a missile defense like the one the US is deploying could be effective against the Russians. The Russians are pissed about it (and about Star Wars in the 80s) because it gives the US a real first strike capability against them.

And yes, right now nuclear war is unlikely. But what about 30 years from now? What about 50? 50 years ago the US and Russia were staring at each other off the coast of Cuba, waiting for the other one to blink to decide who would be blamed for starting nuclear Armageddon. A lot can change in half a century.

Re:The United States wouldn't care

[FhnuZoag]

Except that the Russians tried to arrange a deal whereupon Russian observers would be in place on US missile defense bases, to ensure they cannot be used against them. The US refused.

There's plenty of evidence that the Russians are genuine in their belief that this is a threat to them, and this has been a consistent position of theirs since the Cold War.

Re:Frak

[GPierce]

Russia is our friend. They are not so sure that we are their friend. After the collapse of the Soviet Union we moved in and established "relations" with any number of gangsters and rogue politicians in Russia. And we contributed financially to a number of useful people. We bought strategic resources and we bought politicians.

When one of their rogue oligarchs was in the process of trying to sell the Russian oil industry to some outfit in Dallas, the old hardliners decided we were definitely not their friend. - > the return of Putin and friends.

We also promised that we were not going to make Russia's neighboring countries part of NATO. Then we made all of those neighboring countries part of NATO.

Re:Frak

[Guppy06]

Americans don't understand that Russia is intimidated by the United States.

Russians don't understand that the feeling isn't mutual.