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ARM Expects 20-Nanometer Processors By Late 2013
angry tapir writes "ARM chips made with an advanced, 20-nanometer manufacturing process could appear in smartphones and tablets by as soon as the end of next year, the head of ARM's processor division said Monday. The more advanced chips should allow device makers to improve the performance of their products without reducing battery life, or offer the same performance with longer battery life."
Does anybody know who the 20nm fabs ARM is expecting to provide these chips are? It was my understanding that Samsung, Globalfoundries and TSMC were still working on a larger process(28mm?) and Intel has been very cagey about fabbing any 3rd-party stuff except for a handful of FPGAs and other high-margin oddballs that don't compete in Intel's area of business in any meaningful way.
They have problems delivering 28nm right now so take the 20nm predictions with a pinch of salt. "However, the transition to 28nm does not appear to be going smoothly. ARM heavyweight Qualcomm was the first to introduce a 28nm design, the stunning Snapdragon S4 based on its Krait core. But the outfit is now struggling to meet demand for S4 chips and it is basically becoming a victim of its own success. Other ARM players, such as TI, Nvidia, Samsung and Apple, have yet to introduce a single 28nm part." -- http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/27414-arm-hopes-to-see-20nm-processors-next-year
I often wonder, with traces being made smaller all the time, how does this affect radiation resistance? Are we going to hit the point soon where just laying the chip open in the sunlight creates enough of random electron/hole generation, so that the device becomes useless? We already know that chips must be hardened to work in space, how long until this is true for Earth-tied ones? If someone has an answer, it would be interesting to know.
I suspect that the answer is a combination of 'don't hold your breath on that' and 'at least a year ago, did you miss it?'
In terms of sheer screaming power(and, for the moment, even supporting 64 bit memory spaces) ARM is a toy and shows no terribly strong signs of making any strides in that area that Intel would really be worried about.
On the other hand, it would appear that an awful lot of netbooks and laptops were never sold, possibly never even built, because of tablets and smartphones... If things like this turn out to be a good fit for some 'cloud' niche or other sales of select Xeons could see similar hits.
At least so far, you don't go up against Chipzilla benchmark-for-benchmark. The world evolves around you such that your virtues are now more desirable than his...
ARM based chips will never be real Intel competitor, in the same way that Intel chips never were a real competitor for IBM z-system class mainframes.
Some background you'll never see anywhere else, written by me:
First of all these funny numbers come from the ITRS. This is not just random numbers, process stages are not a "preferred number system" like resistor values where statistics determines the weird values. Process stage size steps are indirectly determined by physics. ITRS is an industry association of companies who actually make this stuff. Wikipedia has a page for each stage, yes there is a wiki page called "22nm" or something like that. This "20 nm" process is actually a "half step" from the 22nm process. The next "real" step is 16 nm.
(opinion alert!) Now this is a half step from 22nm to 16nm and is considered a failure. Put your efforts into cheaper higher yield more economic 22 or advance the field to 16, don't screw around halfway at 20. Another interpretation is oxide thicknesses are getting too small at the 22nm process to make anything smaller like 16nm, essentially they're giving up on 16nm because its economically impossible(end opinion alert!) The rest of my post is pretty much factual, as far as I know.
Another interesting thing about process sizes is this is a half-pitch (essentially a radius) of an array cell. Its dumb and/or marketing to spec half-pitch instead of pitch if you're talking memory. One cell of memory using a "20nm process" is actually 40 nm across. You'll read all kinds of foolishness about how the interconnects are 20 nm across, or a unit memory cell is a 20nm on a side square, or the oxide layer being 20 nm across (which would actually be Fing huge by current standards). Basically almost all size comparisons will just be random crap and no journalist or marketing PR guy ever makes a correct analogy using half pitch, they'll say absolutely anything other than the correct answer, which has made me laugh for decades now.
Everyone knows everything comes from China. Including semiconductors. Well, actually, no. There's a nice list of plants at wikipedia. You'll see a lot of US addresses. Yes you can probably buy a knock off 555 or 741 from China, but they have almost no small scale plants at all. Pretty much processors come from the USA and a scattering of small time players around the globe. That's interesting. We (USA) make really tiny processors and really giant industrial machinery and not a whole heck of a lot in between. You want a 500000 ton mining dragline? We got it. You want a 22nm processor? We got it. You want a shoe? No we don't make those in this country anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Semiconductor_Fabrication_Plants
Finally processes are a moving target and different mfgrs and different products are at each stage. There are a couple plants being built for 16 nm process and there are prototypes of "real 16 nm chips" floating around. 22nm process memory was shipping two years ago, 22nm process CPUs are much harder to design. Intel is already shipping 22nm process family CPUs, so AMD gets a golf clap for promising to catch up later this year with something microscopically better. To the best of my knowledge 11nm is not out of the lab yet even for fooling around with.
And that's about all I know from making some investments in mfgrs since the 80s, some of which worked, some not so good. Not currently investing in this market, but I still keep up with the times and I do a lot of electronics in my basement.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
TSMC, UMC and Samsung are some of the biggest players in the field. And almost all the DRAM is manufactured in South Korea.
Jan
once apple releases a cheap macbook, watch out dell/hp/asus and others
Bzzt. You used the words 'Apple' and 'cheap' in the same sentence.
I'm not sure you understand how ARM's business model works. They don't manufacture chips themselves, and they don't even hire somebody else to manufacture chips for them. They also don't design chips for a specific process node. They just produce a design and leave it up to a company like Texas Instruments to figure out how to build them at a certain process node (or hire some fab company to do it).
The 20nm statement is just a prediction. They're saying they expect their customers to get 20nm parts out in 2013.
What I'd like to know is....why does this question keep coming up? Its as stupid as saying "When will mopeds replace Mac trucks?" so the correct answer should be "Well that's just a stupid fucking question!" followed by hitting the moron who asked it with a fish, maybe a nice trout or red snapper.
While there is a LITTLE overlap, there's not much, and mostly the two are as far apart as mopeds and trucks. The ARM is made to go in little things and is designed for using little power above all, the Intel needs more space but the IPC is just insane so you can get a hell of a lot more work done. You wouldn't try to run Photoshop on your cell would you? So why would you think the chip in your cell would replace the one running Photoshop? ARM simply can't ramp up to the IPC of a P4, much less a Core CPU and if it tried it'd be just as big a user of power as an Intel so it'd be pointless.
So can't we all just accept that some things are good for some jobs and other things are good for others and leave it at that? Neither chip is gonna "beat" the other because except for a couple of tiny overlaps they really aren't in competition.
Oh and a final note, the reason that laptops and netbooks aren't selling as much is the same reason desktops aren't selling as much and that is because we went past "good enough" and into "insanely overpowered" and frankly once we got rid of the space heater chips like P4 Mobile that killed the laptops by thermal cycling honestly? with just a tiny bit of TLC they can last a looong time. I know people still using early Core and Turion laptops simply because there wasn't a point in replacing them. After all a new battery was only $30 and there hasn't been any "killer apps" other than games for years and most folks don't game on a laptop.
So again I wouldn't say one "killed" the other, as everyone I know that has a smartphone or tablet ALSO has a netbook or laptop AND a desktop, its just they don't replace the X86 units until they die because there really isn't a point. While ARM is undergoing its own MHz war frankly for most users even a bottom of the line Pentium or even E350 netbook or laptop is more than enough power for what they are doing with them so they stick with what works. I predict we'll see the same thing with ARM once quads reach mainstream, they'll run into a power wall just as X86 ran into a thermal wall and we'll see the same thing we do now with X86, nobody tossing until the previous one dies.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.