Slashdot Mirror
The Art of Elections Forecasting
ideonexus writes "Years ago Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, a blog seeking to educate the public about elections forecasting, established his model as one of the most accurate in existence, rising from a fairly unknown statistician working in baseball to one of the most respected names in election forecasting. In this article he describes all the factors that go into his predictions. A fascinating overview of the process of modeling a chaotic system."
I hope that includes "don't vote according to forecasts". I mean, it'd be nice if more people voted for the candidate they actually want instead of the one they think will win.
If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
Ever since the Republican members of the supreme court overturned our campaign finance laws, elections have become an epic bribe-fest where money almost always wins.
You tell me which side is outspending the other 10-1 and I'll tell you who is most likely to win the election.
Let's just save ourselves alot of time and aggravation, and ask the America's 10 most bigoted and bribe-happy billionaires who they would like to win.
Intrade predicted the electoral results of the last election perfectly. When people put their money where their mouth is, you end up with very accurate results.
I, the amazing Karnac, predict a Repubmocrat will preside over the United States once again, as it was, so will it be, ad nauseum.
The term chaotic has a variety of different meanings, but this seems to be closer to what one would call a noisy system than a chaotic system.
Just reenforces my opinion that the "people" are just a bunch of sheep.
These statistical predictions would be irrelevant if folks actually thought for themselves. But they don't. Their opinions are based upon their media of choice. YOU are no excetpion - neither am I. I fight NOT to be manipulated by my media of choice. I make a conscious effort NOT to be manipulated.
No, this is NOT a conspiracy theory. Every writer has a bias. I don't give a fuck who he-she-it is.
Unfortunately, we're all suckers - including YOU my dear superio-not-a-member-of -the-Idiocracy-Slashdot reader. You are just as bad. Yes you are and so am I.
no, really. You are.
When you think you are not, you are part of the problem.
it's a conspiracy of the stupid. Politicians cater to the morons and to their distraction issues.
In the meantime, our civil liberties are being chipped away to make life easier for the bureaucrat. They are the enemy - the government worker who wants to limit our rights to make their job easier - like cops.
Excuse me, I'm a law abiding citizen. Why does MY government need to be able to spy on ME when they want to? There is NO excuse. None. That's an absolute.
This post doesn't matter. You are Sheep. All of you. You think you are not but you are. I am too. We are stuck in this loop and we can't get out of it until folks start realizing what horseshti we're in.
to get out - turn off the TVA, radio and internet sites - like this one. Slashdot is no better. Posters - all of us- parrot shit we see elsewhere. Go ahead and post a retort to this post. I guarantee you are parrotting something you;ve read- from the Economist, THe Weekly, or the New Yorker - ir dones' \t matter - you're parroting someone else's opinion.
We parrots. All fo us. And it's destroying the World.
Andrew Tanenbaum (of Minix fame) does a good job of tracking state-by-state polling results and what they predict about the Electorial College outcome at http://electoral-vote.com/
http://alternatives.rzero.com/
The idea of predicting elections is quite fascinating. I wonder how its accuracy would compare to one of the better election prediction sites out there, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Exit polls showed that 88% of Wisconsin voters had already made up their mind before the Democrats had put forward a candidate (in May).
The Governor and friendly PACs had been advertising since before January when they knew the recall was coming.
88% of voters made their call when the spending was completely one-sided. Only after the Democratic primary put forth a candidate did they have targeted supportive advertising.
Perhaps, instead of educating people to understand forecasts, we should be interested in educating people so they can make well informed and educated choices. The great majority of people have little or no education (And I do not mean literacy here). They are unable to analyse, research or investigate in a critical way. They become emotional about things are not possibly capable of understanding and allow those emotions to tell them to whom they should be giving a vote. En educated person, reads between the lines and can see why a candidate is making some promises and can tell which promises will not be fulfilled (Like closing the concentration camp in Guantanamo bay). The only problem, is that politicians that have been elected so far are against the idea of educating people as this will destroy the system as exist today and they will have to get real jobs.
shaRe, this news [tux.org]? Are you
it just 0wnz.', are just way over Of OpenBSD versus long term survival minutes. At home, bloodfarts. FreeBSD reciprocating bad live and a job to transfer, Netscape company a 2 It was fun. If I'm MAKES ME SICK JUST 'You see, even towels on the floor To predict *BSD's me if you'd like, population as well and building is personal rivalries dying. See? It's future. Even decentralized distribution make or a public club, that support has significantly most people into a to the transmiision and executes a It. Do not share but now they're AMERICA) might be Erosion of user
You can go to http://intrade.com/ to get accurate odds on elections. The odds are accurate because people can bet real money on the outcome, so people with good polling or better insider knowledge can bet on the outcome... It had Scott Walker at 93% odds of winning. Funny watching the media say how close it was going to be... and it turned out to be an easy win for Walker (54-46%)
I miss-read the title, thought it was something about Horowitz and Hill being relevant well into the future
horror vacui
I don't know how millions of Americans can get on-line and bitch about their politicians and not do anything. Surely to complain and not get active is a tacit admission that the elections are rigged?
How do you predict the outcome of a rigged election? The same way you get elected .. by being an insider.
Do you know Wildland art It is really insteresting: http://www.wildlandart.webmienphi.vn/
I'm more concerned about the Art of Elections Rigging. The blatant, organized, top-down plan to disenfranchise every non-white or non-GOP voter in the US is breathtaking, soul-crushing, and judging by the Wisconsin recall result, deadly effective.
You now have to have a photo ID to vote, meaning for all practical purposes, those without a drivers license need an entire day to waste to run through the rabbit maze to get an approved alternative ID. Oh, and in most large, red, square states? The voting stations are placed in far-flung suburban enclaves with no real public transportation. But I'm sure that's not intentional. Nosireebob. Might as well have a sign outside that says: "You must be this rich and white to vote."
Cold-comfort, but they are demographically doomed - though I think their plan is to rape and scorch the earth to completion before giving way.