Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

The Art of Elections Forecasting

Posted by timothy on from the can-we-get-a-point-spread-in-vegas? dept.

ideonexus writes "Years ago Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, a blog seeking to educate the public about elections forecasting, established his model as one of the most accurate in existence, rising from a fairly unknown statistician working in baseball to one of the most respected names in election forecasting. In this article he describes all the factors that go into his predictions. A fascinating overview of the process of modeling a chaotic system."

11 of 101 comments (clear)

  1. Educating the Public? by newcastlejon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I hope that includes "don't vote according to forecasts". I mean, it'd be nice if more people voted for the candidate they actually want instead of the one they think will win.

    --
    If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
    1. Re:Educating the Public? by khallow · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I hope that includes "don't vote according to forecasts". I mean, it'd be nice if more people voted for the candidate they actually want instead of the one they think will win.

      An educated public would realize that voting for who you want in today's election environment is not optimal strategy.

  2. It's all about the money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Ever since the Republican members of the supreme court overturned our campaign finance laws, elections have become an epic bribe-fest where money almost always wins.

    You tell me which side is outspending the other 10-1 and I'll tell you who is most likely to win the election.

    Let's just save ourselves alot of time and aggravation, and ask the America's 10 most bigoted and bribe-happy billionaires who they would like to win.

    1. Re:It's all about the money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Democracy = one man one vote.

      Capitalism = one dollar one vote.

      Only an idiot or a libertarian (but I repeat myself) fails to understand that you can't "vote with your wallet" unless everyone has about the same size wallet.

    2. Re:It's all about the money by robinsonne · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You can say "correlation != causation" all you want, but the simple thing is more $$$ = more advertising, and the more advertising = more votes. IOW more $$$ = more votes.

    3. Re:It's all about the money by Thomas+M+Hughes · · Score: 5, Informative

      Do remember that he [Obama] was the first (and so far only) Presidential candidate to forgo Federal matching funds for his campaign, since skipping those funds meant he didn't have to abide by the campaign finance limits.

      I don't believe that is accurate. This suggests that Steve Forbes skipped on matching funds in 1996 and 2000. G. W. Bush skipped on matching funds in 2000 and 2004, which caused Howard Dean and John Kerry to forgo in 2004 as well. Over the last decade, everybody who wins, forgoes matching funds, as well as a significant number of the losers.

      There are valid reasons to say Obama is doing things that are bad, but I think we have a real tendency to say "He's the first to do this!" when he's doing stuff that has been the trend for quite some time.

    4. Re:It's all about the money by I_am_Jack · · Score: 4, Funny

      I always thought a Libertarian was just a Republican who wanted to legally smoke weed.

  3. electoral tracking by tverbeek · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Andrew Tanenbaum (of Minix fame) does a good job of tracking state-by-state polling results and what they predict about the Electorial College outcome at http://electoral-vote.com/

    --
    http://alternatives.rzero.com/
  4. Re:Doesn't Matter by Nadaka · · Score: 5, Funny

    Yes, he is. But he is still the best republican president we have had in a century.

  5. Re:Doesn't Matter by artor3 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Historically, people have been willing to cross the aisle on important policies, especially if you meet them halfway. Obama's health care proposal, cap and trade, and the DREAM act (i.e. citizenship through military service) were all Republican ideas that they would have loved to support as recently as 2006. No one could have predicted the scorched earth tactic they'd employ to bring the president down.

    Obama's greatest fault was how long it took him to realize what was going on. Most people had realized all the Republican "negotiations" were a stalling tactic by the summer of '09, the fall at the latest. Obama didn't seem to get it until after the 2010 elections.

  6. Re:Doesn't Matter by Marcika · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Lieberman is no democrat. He sabotaged the public option for the republicans by joining the threatened filibuster. Thus no majority. Thus your point is moot, coward.