Shenzhou 9 Sparks Renewed Debate On Space Race With China

MarkWhittington writes "With the flight of the Shenzhou 9, which includes the first docking between a Chinese spacecraft and a prototype space station module, a renewed debate has arisen over the implications of Chinese space feats. China is planning a large space station by the end of this decade. It has expressed the desire to land people on the moon sometime in the next decade. Scientists, foreign policy experts and journalists debate whether China has supplanted the U.S. as a space power and whether that matters. 'In reality, the implications of China's move could be a much cooler third option: a new space race between the Chinese government and U.S. startups. While China is 50 years behind the U.S. government, they are much more comparable to U.S. companies. It was only a couple of weeks ago that SpaceX made history by becoming the first private company to successfully dock a space module to a station in orbit. This means they are roughly 10-15 years behind the Chinese government, but they could gain fast.'"

Comments

Prediction

[Spy Handler]

China will land a man on the moon first, but SpaceX will win the race to Mars.

Re:Prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

No, they'll build their own knock-off moon.

Re:Prediction

[Riceballsan]

The bottom line, what on earth is spaceX's motivation to go to mars? The thing with corporations running things, is they have to be profitable. Hence why spaceX's missions are to deliver to ISS etc... China just has to get a guy there and put up a flag. SpaceX has to, find a resource on mars, figure out a way to obtain said resource, get good enough quanities of it, and bring it back and sell it, for roughly more money then the trip cost. Unless of course they can write it off as a multi-billion dollar marketing plan. But even that, marketing to whom? They aren't in a business where they can easilly increase their number of customers. Only governments, and multi billionares can even think of hiring them, and well, I'm pretty sure every government with interest in stuff from space, and person ritch enough to actually afford a space tourist trip, knows of them already. Maybe a tourist trip where they can bring along say 15-20 of the people on the forbes list who are brave enough to want to be part of the first trip to land on mars, that might fund it.

Re:Prediction

[SomePgmr]

He doesn't do much else? Like him or not, I can't think of many people that have done more than he has. And it's not like he sets small goals.

SolarCity, which apparently is the largest provider of solar systems in the US. That would be enough for any person to feel like they achieved something.

Co-founded Tesla Motors, who brought the electric car back from the dead, and last I'd heard, is actually profitable. Also provides powertrain tech to other auto companies. Company is worth over a billion now, the Model S starts production this year and the Model X starts in 2014. I believe they already maxed out preproduction reservations.

SpaceX. Started with $100m of his own money. Has $1.6 billion (minimum) to $3.x billion (max) in contracts for resupply flights to the ISS. Just made history as the first commercial company to complete one of those missions... and it was a nearly flawless one. Equipment to make the Dragon capsule safe for manned flight is in the works (as linked above).

Of course there's Paypal (formerly his X.com). I imagine he did alright on that deal... which was no small feat.

Sure he talks big, but the dude is only 40 and has already done a lot.

It's a space "RACE" because that's what US wants

[Taco Cowboy]

China had wanted to cooperate with the world in the space venture

China had wanted to join the ISS

The United States of America objected, and barred the Chinese from ever stepping into the ISS

That left China with no other alternative but to construct their own space station

In other words, the space "RACE" has become a race because that's what USA had always wanted

Is China even behind at all?

[mpoulton]

"While China is 50 years behind the U.S. government..."

Um. No they aren't. The US government did these same things 50 years ago, but is no longer capable of easily repeating its past feats. The first US moon landing program took less than 10 years from conceptual announcement to a giant leap for mankind. How long would it take for the US to do the same thing again? I'm not confident we even could. I'm not sure we could even replicate China's docking-to-a-station performance in 10 years, now that we've abandoned all of our previously successful manned spaceflight programs.

Re:Is China even behind at all?

[frosty_tsm]

I won't be counting out the USA with such a broad brush

Remember, when they sent out the astronauts to the moon, the computing power of the entire space module is less than a 386 chip

Today, even a not-so-smart phone has computing power much more than the 386

In other words, if USA wants to go to moon today, it no longer has to do it from scratch

Correct, but modern engineering is plagued by over-engineering, design by committee, and (when the government is involved) pork. For example, Congressional funding for NASA and the military specify which districts the components are made in. We also demand better safety and testing (which takes time) where sometimes the gadgets broke. Safety isn't a bad thing. But in 1969 we were willing to risk 3 men's lives with a reasonable probability they would 1) crash 2) get stranded or 3) overshoot the moon and keep going (all of which results in them dying).

There was a time when the right mix of brains, creativity, and guts came together. Since then, we've gotten smarter but (with respect to NASA) less creative and more risk-adverse.

Re:Is China even behind at all?

[c0lo]

We don't need to go back to the Moon. We went there, planted a flag, and left. There is no reason to go back to the Moon or to Mars. If China wants to waste a few hundred billion dollars on space, let them. That is one expensive flag planting ceremony.

(groan) ^This coming less than 50 years after... :

We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.

Re:Is China even behind at all?

[FatLittleMonkey]

Perhaps more appropriate, his Rice U speech:

So it is not surprising that some would have us stay where we are a little longer to rest, to wait. But this city of Houston, this State of Texas, this country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them. This country was conquered by those who moved forward--and so will space.

As soon as the US got to the moon, they rested, they waited. While space will be conquered by those who are moving forward.

"The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space -- each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision." – XKCD

Re:Is China even behind at all?

[jandersen]

There was a time when the right mix of brains, creativity, and guts came together

There still is - it's called haggis.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[c0lo]

The United States of America objected, and barred the Chinese from ever stepping into the ISS

I was about to put a "[citation needed]".
Then, changed my mind and went after the info myself (is posting it "karma whoring"?)

Re:Do you mind ?

[spokenoise]

I do mind. I seriously think China will get up there and stay before the US unless the US pimp it up as a face saver. China will do it for a tiny proportion of the budget with less fanfare and make it work. Eventually. 'To infinity and beyond'

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[jamstar7]

What gets me is, the article claims the Chinese are going to build a 'big space station'. Actually, the current plans are to have a 60 ton station in orbit by 2020. The ISS, on the other tentacle, weighs approximately 450 tons.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[Anonymous Coward]

That left China with no other alternative but to construct their own space station

With blackjack. And hookers.

Re:Mind cut out all the racist garbage?

[FatLittleMonkey]

Seriously?

Futurama.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[Taco Cowboy]

I think that's what most of us wanted, considering China is a communist country

Umm ... Last time I checked Russia is a communist country too

How come there was no similar battle cry over Russia (and the previous USSR) involvement in the ISS?

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[YttriumOxide]

Umm ... Last time I checked Russia is a communist country too

It's clearly been a LONG time since you checked... it's been a Federal Republic with a multi-party representative democracy since the 25th of December 1991...

You could of course argue back and forth that they're not a very good democracy, but that's a matter of each person's own opinion.

Re:Do you mind ?

[SuricouRaven]

They also like their propaganda, and beating the US to something this prestigious would do great things for national pride. Remember why the US went into the space race in the first place - because they couldn't let some bunch of dirty commies get there first.

Obligatory Neil DeGrasse Tyson

[wickerprints]

This should put things in context: "We Stopped Dreaming"

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6b4_1337136397

And despite all the criticisms of the details of NDT's claims, I strongly believe that the underlying theme remains valid. Americans did in fact stop dreaming. The pursuit of science, engineering, and technology, the VALUATION of these things as a foundation for a competitive, progressive, and forward-looking society, is now almost entirely lost upon the American public, replaced by willful superstition, fear, and ignorance. Replaced by doubts about man-made climate change, irrational religious fervor for creationism and other Biblical dogmas, and indeed, an active distrust and suspicion of scientific and critical thinking.

This is not about what China is doing, folks. This is about what America once did on the belief that anything was possible, and about what America no longer does because that attitude has been replaced by a sense of complacency.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[progician]

Communism: * No capital (private, or state) -> Russia has state, has private capital. -> Russia isn't communist.
* No market (state planned or unregulated) -> Russia has a partially regulated market as most of modern capitalist countries, including the USA. -> Russia isn't communist.
* Private property (under private or institutional control) -> Russia has all the protection for private property, the right to buy, the right to sell, with the obvious exception (as in market regulation). Russia isn't communist.
* Wage work -> Vast majority of people in Russia are working for wage, for a minority that owns all the means of production (capitalist). -> Russia is definitely capitalist.
* Government and the state exist: No capital and private property could exist without a central (national) enforcement. -> Russia has a strong, nationalistic, government which upholds a law for the rich, bash the poor. In Russia there's also a widespread, highly organized criminal secondary rule, for the same reason.
* Capitalists are making profit, while the working class is exploited. -> While this is true all over the world, in Russia, due to the corruption of the state, many health and safety regulation is circumvented, and unions are threatened by criminal organizations, resulting one of the most unregulated capitalism in the world. -> Russia isn't just capitalist, but the social consequences of barely regulated exploitation are devastating.

Any question to elaborate further?

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[progician]

I find this astronaut, cosmonaut and taikonaut so embarrassing for fuck sake. It's the same fucking thing. A person is space (or anywhere for that matter) isn't defined by the nationality but what she/he does and in what quality.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[progician]

If you ask me, I don't refer to China as a communist place (note that being a communist country is a contradiction), but as a state-capitalist country, meaning that the state is the major owner of the national resources and therefore the biggest capitalist of them all. Never the less, you can see how the Chinese capitalism is compatible with the "Western" version of it, given that China is bailing out the EU, also developed private industry and so on.

Capital can be concentrated or highly distributed, but as long as the society runs on the principles of market available property (public or private does not matter, since if nobody else, Chinese government can sell national assets), on the internal mechanism of investment, exploitation and market valorization, than we're still talking about the roughly the same social organisation, that is, capitalism.

Monopolization is a natural process within capitalism, so even the so called free markets lasts only as long as the state power regulates the economy (anti-trust laws, anyone?). But as political and economical power always tend to merge because people with considerable wealth are commanding over larger amount of economy, hence they rule over larger proportion of people, directly or indirectly, the state is always central to the capitalist system, either in the framework of the western style indirect market manipulation, or with being in charge directly over the economy, like in China. These are different politico-economic management styles, not entirely opposite social organisations. Monopolization can take charge through economic power, or political. But the end-result is the same. As an anecdotal side note, I'm from a country, which was considered as socialist/communist for 40 years, until 22 years ago. I've seen both management styles, through the transition and now living in the west, and I have to tell you, that the ideological differences are just rather covering up the converging features of the two political and economical management, than actually creating differences on a social level.

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[risom]

find this astronaut, cosmonaut and taikonaut so embarrassing for fuck sake. It's the same fucking thing.

Me too. So let's call all of them cosmonauts from now on, as that notation clearly was the first in use (applied to Juri Gagarin).

Re:It's a space "RACE" because that's what US want

[zach_the_lizard]

Communism is an economic system, whereas democracy is a political system.