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SSD Prices Down 46% Since 2011

crookedvulture writes "Hard drive prices have yet to return to normal after last year's Thailand flooding. There's good news on the solid-state front, though. The current generation of SSDs has steadily become much cheaper over the last year or so. SSD prices have dropped an average of 46% since early 2011. Intel has largely shied away from discounting its drives, but the aggressive competition between other players in the market seems to have forced its hand. There's no indication that competition is waning, suggesting the downward trend will continue. Right now, an impressive number of drives are available for less than a dollar per gigabyte."

42 of 292 comments (clear)

  1. hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by alen · · Score: 4, Interesting

    SSD prices just fell from completely ludicrous to ridiculous as part of the normal drop in prices per GB of storage

    1. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by jaymz666 · · Score: 3, Funny

      They've gone to plaid

    2. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by amicusNYCL · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Between my $500 video card, two 28" monitors, quad-core CPU, and 8GB of high-speed RAM, it was definitely my shiny new OCZ Agility 3 that made the biggest impression on my when I booted my computer for the first time to install the OS. Those things are so fast it truly is ridiculous.

      --
      "Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
    3. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Only if it's Win 7 32-bit. If he's using the 64-bit version (which is a good bet) he'll get the full 8.

    4. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by TemperedAlchemist · · Score: 2

      I'm sure you mean GB, and you had me confused because I thought for a moment you were speaking of SATA speed.

      But you would be incorrect, Windows 7 x64 is fully capable of running 8 GB of RAM.

    5. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by Bengie · · Score: 3, Informative

      Technically PEA is available for regular Windows, as DEP needs it, but Windows refuses to let you make use of PEA to extend the address range. I only semi-recently learned this myself. Not that it matters much with 64bit everywhere.

    6. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by hairyfeet · · Score: 2

      They still haven't hit the sweet spot, simply because the ones they are discounting are the smaller drives which most of my customer's OS drives simply wouldn't fit,and neither will mine.

      I try to install all my games to a separate drive and my OS drive is at 96Gb used which means a 128Gb would already be nearly full and from the looks of what I've been seeing the drives that are getting dumped on the sales the most are the 40Gb-60Gb. That might be good for a cache drive but you sure as hell aren't fitting Vista or Win 7 on a drive like that without stripping thanks to the retarded "anytime upgrade" crap. The 256Gb ones are still pretty damned high and that would be what is needed to change out most of the OS installs of my customers.

      Finally I would note that the spinning rust is ALSO coming back down after its visit to crazy town after the flood, I've been seeing 1Tb drives for $70 and 2Tb for $99. This isn't quite the $40 a Tb I was paying before the flood but the prices do seem to be heading back down so while its not as fast as the SSD they tend to be more reliable and you certainly get a hell of a lot more space.

      BTW has anybody used an SSD for a Readyboost drive? I'm AMD exclusive so I can't do the caching trick like with those Z68 boards and I was just wondering if anybody had tried using something like a 40Gb SSD as a Readyboost cache. Is it worth it? I have an 8Gb USB I use now and I can tell a difference, especially in programs like games where after first run Windows loads the levels quicker thanks to using both the HDD and flash, but I just don't know if having THAT big a Readyboost would be worth it and I'm sure as hell not gonna do a clean install and VLite to try to squeeze Win 7 onto some 60Gb. This install has purred like a kitten since RTM and I don't want to deal with that much hassle for a speed boost.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    7. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by Bengie · · Score: 2

      Your drivers must also handle PAE, unless you like kernel mode code writing to the wrong places in memory. Realtech/Via/etc have issues released PAE tested 32bit drivers. Because of this, MS removed the ability for more than 32bit addressing on non-server versions.

      If you have Linux with full opensourced drivers, PAE is fairly simple.

    8. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by EvanED · · Score: 2

      No, because there's also a 64-bit version of XP.

      If you want to get technical about it, NT has never not supported some 64-bit architecture (though I'm too lazy to check the RAM limits).

    9. Re:hard drive prices/GB are also dropping by xkenny13 · · Score: 2, Funny

      I have Windows 7 x64 in a system where it recognizes 16GB of RAM.

      Of course, most of that's got sucked up by Firefox...

  2. They speak the truth by MetalliQaZ · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It seems to be the nature of things that prices go up and rarely come down. Interesting for manufacturers, in that they were all forced to raise prices at the same time. Now you have a situation where they can all keep prices high as long as none of the big players steps out. Almost like a natural price fixing scheme.

    On the SSD front, the technology has finally matured so that reliability is good enough and cost is low enough for the mainstream. I think it is important for anyone in the market to make sure that they purchase the latest generation of drives. Speed doesn't matter that much (the rest of your computer is probably couldn't utilize it) but the newer firmwares are much less likely to corrupt your data. The parts are also more fault tolerant.

    Really, the biggest issue is probably the difficulty of moving existing OS installs to a new drive. Too bad, because a completely solid state PC is so nice to use.

    --
    "Here Lies Philip J. Fry, named for his uncle, to carry on his spirit"
    1. Re:They speak the truth by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 5, Insightful

      SSDs also have OCZ and Crucial leveraging MLC and SandForce's controllers to deliver optimized and boosted performance and extended life for reduced cost. SandForce SF-2200 chipsets compress data as it goes out to the chips, reducing write volume and thus giving fractional write amplification. This improves performance and reduces storage wear, improving product lifetime--hence the use of MLC. Of course already compressed data doesn't have those benefits, hence why OCZ's Vertex line has better write speeds--they use synchronous chips that write as fast as they read (Agility drives use much cheaper chips that read faster than they write, so for compressible data they're FAST but for non-compressible data they're slow), and use compression just to extend drive lifetime.

      With all the manufacturers making good use of SandForce's better chips, and SandForce's strategic pricing (read: they're relatively cheap because they want to be a major consumer and enterprise supplier of SSD controllers, which would make them richer than charging a fistful of cash per chip), a lot of inexpensive SSDs have shown up. Essentially Intel tried to hold prices high, and SandForce stepped up and decided to help the whole market undercut them in order to gain market dominance (Intel uses SF chips in 2 models; they previously used Intel proprietary controllers, and have also used Marvell controllers).

      That's called "competition," son. It's what big businesses try to prevent with patents, lock-in, vertical integration (so you can't undercut their prices ever), supply chain control (so you can't get the raw materials to make a competing product without buying from them), etc.

  3. Hard drive prices down? by Anubis350 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Compared to Just post flood, spinning disk prices are down sure. But pre-flood prices were significantly lower than now, whereas SSDs have just been dropping like a stone recently.

    --
    "goodbye and hello, as always" ~Prince Corwin, from Zelazny's Amber series
    1. Re:Hard drive prices down? by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      That is the typical tripe. Two platter HDDs were always cheaper in $/GB compared with single platter ones.

    2. Re:Hard drive prices down? by Anubis350 · · Score: 3, Informative

      I got the 4 Samsung 2TB drives in my main tower in a semi regular newegg sale for $65/each back pre-flood, and even without the sale they were ~$80. Now they're ~$120, with sales to ~$100 :-/

      --
      "goodbye and hello, as always" ~Prince Corwin, from Zelazny's Amber series
    3. Re:Hard drive prices down? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Paranoid much? I post that link because the guys at coding horror see no problem with plopping down a grand on a drive and like /. is full of geeks that know what they are doing so you can't blame it on noob mistakes.

      Yes you can. I've seen Jeff Atwood be very clueless and noobish indeed. He's a programmer, more of a web developer than anything else, not an internationally recognized authority on SSDs. He just likes them because they're fast, and he (and his buddies) had a bad string of luck with them. Every time you link to that one blogpost on codinghorror, you're linking to one guy's anecdote, nothing more. He doesn't give any technical reason to justify his opinion that SSDs are inherently failure prone. He just says he and his friend had a lot of failures, conflates that into a general problem, and uses a stupid sexist analogy to cement the idea that SSDs are fast but inherently unreliable into the skulls of idiots like you.

      i would also point out that article isn't even a year and a half old so if you can provide your OWN link showing this miracle breakthrough that has eliminated SSD failures I'm sure the guys here would be happy to read it.

      The 'miracle breakthrough' is neither a miracle nor a breakthrough, it's just hard work. SSD reliability depends a great deal on SSD firmware, because managing flash storage is complex. Lots of SSD firmware was written with more of an eye towards time-to-market (companies trying to carve out marketshare early) than wringing out all the bugs before they shipped.

      If you want a reliable SSD, stick with the vendors who have managed to sell drives to major OEMs. For instance, if you can get a drive closely related to any of the ones Apple OEMs for MacBooks, you're probably in good shape because Apple does extremely strict qualification (acceptance) testing on all storage devices they ship.

      If you go down to the comments you will see failure after failure, every major brand and model, and these guys again do NOT go cheap so you can use the CCC (Cheapo Chinese Crap) excuse either.

      Many of the failures reported in Atwood's initial blogpost (and lots of them from the comments) were brands like OCZ and other "enthusiast" overclocker kiddie brands. OCZ in particular is well known for its cavalier attitude about treating customers as SSD firmware beta testers.

      We are talking top o' the line drives by reputable companies like Intel crapping all over themselves.

      Just curious, did you mean the comments like this one?

      "Over at blekko, we've had 3 SSD failures after 1.5 years, out of 700 drives. These are Intel X-25M 160G2 drives." - Greg Lindahl

      That's an actual statistically significant sample, not just an anecdote! And it's a very low failure rate; HDD vendors would probably kill for 0.43% over 3 years.

      And then there's the comment with a link to Anandtech which gives some more real data, i.e. return rates recorded by a large French etailer for several major brands:

      http://www.anandtech.com/show/4202/the-intel-ssd-510-review/3

      (the worst is OCZ at almost 3% -- so even keeping in mind OCZ's questionable practices, the picture is quite a bit different from what you're trying to paint, eh?)

      And there's also a ton of anecdotal comments which say "I have a SSD and I never had a hint of trouble with it, shrug", which actually seem to outweigh the anecdotal problem reports by a fair amount, even in spite of the well known principle that usually complaints are overrepresented on message boards and comment threads (satisfied people don't care enough to post, pissed off people do).

      So unless you can provide data of your own I'm gonna call paranoia, since that link is one of the best I've found on the subject and the guys at CH are all pros, frankly I'd be more likely to listen to them than some random "Works4Me" Internet Post.

      The things

  4. Re:SSD? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    SSD means Solid State Disc, a faster permanent storage type than HDD, however lacking capacity-per-dollar of HDDs.

    Solid State Drive *

  5. HDD? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    You're just inventing words as you write, aren't you?

  6. really simple by slashmydots · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Well, WD and Seagate better still be price gouging to save up funds to buy out a flash chip manufacturer or they're screwed. At my repair and custom builds shop, it's down to a simple rule that if you don't need tons of storage, go with the much faster high lifetime SSD option and if you do need tons of storage, a 500GB-1TB drive is the way to go and they're around the same price. At this rate, I bet WD and Seagate have about 6 months to start making SSDs or they're bankrupt.

    1. Re:really simple by Bengie · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Until you realize that ReRAM(memresistors) will have several times the storage of SSDs for the same amount of silicon, and it will start showing up next year. Once those prices come down, they will be near the price of current mechanical HD. Silicon shrinks are out-pacing HD storage density increases.

      I have a much bleaker future for mechanical HDs.

    2. Re:really simple by Bengie · · Score: 2

      Samsung/Hynix and HP have stated they they are producing the machinery for mass-production of ReRAM and expect it to be in retail by 2013 for storage and 2014 for system memory if all goes well.

      Here's one quick google that I found. I read some other one, but yeah..
      http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4229171/HP-Hynix-to-launch-memristor-memory-2013
      10/6/2011 HP, Hynix plan to launch memristor memory in 2013

  7. Re:SSD? by v1 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Slashdotter who doesn't know what an SSD is.. Really?

    Salsa Saturated Dorito

    --
    I work for the Department of Redundancy Department.
  8. Re:Even when they were expensive... by toejam13 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Recently we put some higher-end drives in our servers and we love the hell out of them.

    There have been a couple of reports that just came out that suggest that SSDs can pay for themselves in many server environments. It isn't just the power savings (remember that non-residential customers often get charged more per kWh), but that many servers are often disk I/O bound. When you replace spinning platter drives with SSDs, you might be able to cut your server count in half. Admins have found that they can completely eliminate caching web servers because the app servers can crank out so much.

  9. Re:SSD? by jedidiah · · Score: 2

    Based on consumer feedback, they also seem to be lacking the reliability of HDDs.

    That's kind of sad when you think about it (Seagate).

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  10. Re:SSD by Mashiki · · Score: 2

    Doesn't seem to really hold true. Here's an example from my first generation SSD which is 97% full using AS SSD. If what you said was true, that would be reflected like a traditional drive. But it's not, even with benchmarks. It's speeds are nearly in stock bench wise still, even using other tools it's the same.

    http://i46.tinypic.com/1zbcg43.png

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  11. Re:SSD? by Orphaze · · Score: 4, Informative

    Stick with Intel, and you'll be fine. Intel had some slight firmware issues a while back on one or two of their models, but otherwise every single one of their SSD offerings as been bulletproof. I've deployed hundreds now over the past 2-3 years, and I've yet to see one fail. I've seen loads of other brands (such as Kingston) have weird stuttering/hanging issues, bad write speeds, etc.

    Going SSD is near life changing in terms of the apparent feel and speed gains. I've even got a number of cheapskate clients on 4-5 year old Core 2 Duo machines with SSDs that feel faster than modern 2nd gen i7 systems with traditional drives in terms of boot up time, application loading speed, etc.

  12. Re:SSD? by Guspaz · · Score: 4, Informative

    I've seen so many problems with other brands, that I don't really trust anything but Intel SSDs anymore. Even when using the same controller, Intel manages to avoid issues, like the BSOD problems with the sandforce controllers that only Intel bothered to fix.

    I don't know why TFA says Intel isn't discounting things, though. They're constantly doing mail-in-rebates for their products. I bought an Intel 160GB X25-m G1 for $700 roughly three years ago. Today, you can buy from newegg an Intel 180GB 330 for $120 after rebate, and it's enormously faster to boot.

  13. Re:SSD? by gorzek · · Score: 2

    I thought Maxtor and those... DeathStar, erm, DeskStar things were considered the worst. I actually never had a problem with a Seagate drive, but perhaps I've just been lucky.

  14. A good idea to put off a laptop purchase... by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Informative

    At the rates prices are falling, 512 GB SSD drives will be common in laptops soon, which I think is a very comfortable size for a laptop drive. 256GB (common base laptop SSD now) is OK but anemic.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  15. Memory-mapped I/O by tepples · · Score: 3, Informative

    2^32 bytes = 4 294 967 296 bytes
    how you get 3.2 gigabytes out of that is beyond me.

    Some devices on the bus, especially the video card, reserve some address space for memory-mapped I/O.

  16. Re:SSD? by Jesus_666 · · Score: 2

    SSDs are the rockstars of mass storage: They live fast and die young.

    --
    USE HOT GRITS WITH STATUE OF NATALIE PORTMAN (NAKED AND PETRIFIED)
  17. Re:SSD? by msauve · · Score: 4, Interesting

    But even that is a misnomer. It's not a drive at all. A hard disc drive, has a hard disk being driven (spun) by a motor. SSDs should really be called SSS (Solid State Storage), or similar.

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  18. Re:46 percent you say? by rhook · · Score: 2

    FUD! I have a 120GB SSD in my laptop that has been running for over a year and a half and has had a total of zero issues. According to SSD Life I have read over 7.2TB from it and written over 3.5TB of data to it. It shows that at my current usage rate I have over 8.5 years left until I run of of writes, and that is a low end estimate.

  19. Re:Reliability and RAID, what to do with SSD by arkane1234 · · Score: 2

    RAID is good if you got the cash to pick up two drives, but only really necessary if you have a massive need to keep the system operational 24x7.
    Other than that, if the drive starts losing sectors (HDD or SSD) it's time to just replace it.
    If it's a server, I'd say yeah. If it's a desktop, as long as your backing it up (time machine?), it's an overkill.

    --
    -- This space for lease, low setup fee, inquire within!
  20. Re:SSD? by mpfife · · Score: 2
    This has also dramatically changed. Yes, early drives suffered from a number of problems - many of which have been solved or greatly reduced. The biggest difference for SSD's is their memory cells do only allow a finite amount of writes before they wear out. Much as USB sticks. The problems came from both firmware bugs in early designs, and the inherent longevity of the memory.

    Here are the salient hardware points:
    -Intel SSD drives now carry a 3 year warranty. Now as good as any platter drive (sadly).
    -Drives have built-in error correction and failure tolerance with replaceable blocks if one cell dies.
    -Newer processing techniques have greatly improved reliability
    -Many bug fixes to early firmware problems. Things such as wear-leveling that prevents certain cells from getting hammered while the rest of the drive sits unused.

    Some of the software points:
    -OS's have long be optimized for the slow platter performance. Newer OS's (Win7 is one) detect the use of an SSD and turn off the features that actually hurt drives. What are those things? Turn off disk defragmenting, optimizing the use of the system so that caches and data live on a platter drive while the OS and programs you want mostly read access are on the SSD.

    There are many good articles and write-ups on these topics. I finally made the jump and would never look back. I just got a 180gb Intel SSD for $129 and it's the single most trans-formative upgrade to my computing experience I've made since the Core line of processors were released. The sheer speed your machine runs at, how apps just instantly start and the system boots in a few seconds, is just mind boggling. You start feeling the power of modern processors like you never have before.

  21. Re:SSD? by Zero__Kelvin · · Score: 2

    No. It is not a complete misnomer, but merely a morphing of terms with historical implications. These devices support interfaces originally designed for Hard and Optical Disk/Drives. Traditionally the underlying storage medium has fluctuated drastically, using everything from rotating magnetic platters to LASERs and plastic discs. We already have Solid State Storage that does not support drive electronics, e.g. USB sticks. The market continues to use the term drive to indicate that these devices support a "Drive" interface, such as SATA interface for example.

    --
    Guns don't kill people; Physics kills people! - John Lithgow as Dick Solomon on Third Rock From The Sun
  22. Re:Reliability and RAID, what to do with SSD by drsmithy · · Score: 2

    RAID is pretty common for HDDs, because drives do fail and RAID gives you instant (for RAID1) and automatic recovery. Is there a point to have SSDs in RAID?

    Yes. You RAID SSDs for exactly the same reason(s) you RAID hard disks.

  23. Re:What are fake GB? by sarysa · · Score: 2

    No, it's actually a refusal by everyone else

    "Everyone else" not so much. Even my 68 year old mother picked up on 1kb=1024 bytes very quickly. (I say this because people always claim "it isn't for you, it's for mom" when arguing against even the tiniest amount of complexity) It's really more those with a vested interest in reduced capacities who were pushing it -- basically drive manufacturers for the most part.

    --
    Charisma is the measure of someone's ability to lie with a straight face.
  24. Updated Price Predictions by CopaceticOpus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I created some back-of-the-envelope predictions in July 2009 about the cost for 10TB of storage using either type of drive technology. Unfortunately, neither technology has kept pace with my predictions, but SSDs are making much better progress.

    Actual July 2009 Prices for 10TB: Platter = $750, Flash = $28,125
    Actual June 2012 Prices: Platter = $567, Flash = $8200

    Previous Prediction for July 2010: Platter = $528, Flash = $9,868
    Previous Prediction for July 2012: Platter = $262, Flash = $1,215
    Previous Prediction for July 2014: Platter= $130, Flash = $150
    Previous Prediction for July 2019: Platter= $23, Flash = $0.80

    It's a shame to see that after three years, the prices are closer to where I hoped to see them in a single year. I think it's time to update my predictions based on what has happened over the previous 35 months. (Yes, I know this in unscientific and silly!)

    New Prediction for July 2012: Platter = $562, Flash = $7916
    New Prediction for July 2013: Platter = $511, Flash = $5188
    New Prediction for July 2014: Platter = $464, Flash = $3400
    New Prediction for July 2015: Platter = $422, Flash = $2228
    New Prediction for July 2019: Platter = $287, Flash = $411
    New Prediction for July 2024: Platter = $178, Flash = $50

    These predictions seem much more achievable than last time. In fact, I expect that platter drives will exceed this pace as the industry recovers. I can't believe that platter drives will only see around a 50% price reduction per TB over the next seven years. However, that's been the pace of improvement from July 2009 until now.

    The most interesting date will be when the technologies reach price equivalence. This would be August 2020 according to my model, at the price of $260 for 10 TB. My gut feeling is that equivalence will be reached a couple of years earlier than that, but who knows? We'll just have to watch and see!

  25. Re:Reliability and RAID, what to do with SSD by DigiShaman · · Score: 2

    Keep in mind that currently, the Intel desktop RAID RST does not pass TRIM command to the SSDs when in a RAID volume. Supposedly that will change in a newer version of the RST driver. Not sure when, but it's a feature to be added and has been in the works for some time now.

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  26. Every little bit helps by A_Non_Moose · · Score: 2

    Got an Asus G73JH whose boot time was in the 2 minute range (from bios menu to desktop plus another
    30+ seconds to be usable once on the desktop...ack) on a > 1.5 year old windows7 install.

    If I were not in .edu, wipe and reload...as is, did a system image (had to fight that, too)

    Pure SSD was still too pricey and storage too small, so I tried a hybrid drive (8G SSD attached).

    One word: "Wow".

    Fresh install of win7, 20 seconds flat and ready to go.

    Restored image as mentioned above: 45 seconds +/- 10 sec and off to the races.

    Now, granted I could have gotten a cheap and small SSD and put it in the second bay, but until I
    can get a 750G+ SSD for less than $200 *aaaand* boot in 20 seconds, I'll likely stick with
    straight mechanical but I'm really liking the hybrid route.

    A hybrid with enough room for a complete OS (128G or so?) would more than give me what I seek
    if done right.

    --
    Have you read the moderator guidelines? Well, have you, PUNK? (and I want a Karma: Gnarly option)
  27. Re:SSD? by Guspaz · · Score: 2

    Samsung is actually decent, they do a huge amount of OEM work, so their validation requirements are pretty decent. Other than that, I'd stick to Intel.

    OCZ is hit or miss. Their stuff is fast, but reliability isn't great compared to Intel.