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Has a Biochem Undergrad Solved a Cosmic Radiation Mystery?

scibri writes "A few weeks ago, reports of a mysterious spike in carbon-14 levels in Japanese tree rings corresponding to the year 775 intrigued astronomers. Such a spike could only have been caused by a massive supernova or solar flare, but there was no evidence of either of these at that time. Until Jonathon Allen, a biochem undergrad at UC Santa Cruz, Googled it. He found a reference in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle to a 'red crucifix' appearing in the sky in 774, and speculates that it could have been a supernova hidden behind a cloud of dust, which could mask the remnants of the exploded star from astronomers today."

35 of 156 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Pics by game+kid · · Score: 4, Funny

    The letters are Elvish, of an ancient mode, but the language is that of Mordor, which I will not utter here.

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  2. A few weeks ago in slashdot... by kanto · · Score: 5, Informative

    A.D. 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mull, for their lord, who reigned four winters. This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset; the Mercians and the men of Kent fought at Otford; and wonderful serpents were seen in the land of the South-Saxons.

    http://omacl.org/Anglo/part2.html

    Twas' a comment by JustOk.

    1. Re:A few weeks ago in slashdot... by scibri · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Despite the best efforts of a few of us on the online team here, Nature is still pretty 'old media'. So if someone wants credit for an idea, they have to get it touch with us directly!

    2. Re:A few weeks ago in slashdot... by Rogue+Haggis+Landing · · Score: 5, Informative

      That's the proof of a supernova in 774?

      Yeah, that's credible.

      One wonders what the "wonderful serpents" were.

      You're simply not going to get a definitive record of a celestial event in 8th century Europe. Records are very scanty, often non-existent. This is so marked that it's led to an entertaining conspiracy theory or two claiming that the early Middle Ages didn't actually exist and were faked at some later date. Back in the real world, there's so little evidence for most things about Anglo-Saxon England that the claim that the people of York chose Ethelred, son of Mull to be their king is almost as suspect as the claim about the wonderful serpents.

      So the best you can usually hope for in the English 8th century is a monk somewhere recording events in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (or a Anglo-Saxon Chronicle -- there were a few of them made at different times and in different places). The Chronicle doesn't really go for detail. They sum up a year in a few declarative sentences, with no description, so you're never going to get a description of a celestial event, you're going to get a simplfied interpretation of it. This interpretation will be in terms that the monk or the eyewitnesses he got his information from understood. They didn't know anything about supernovas, but he knew about miraculous crosses in the sky, like that which appeared to the future Roman Emperor Constantine during his fighting against his rival Maxentius. So whatever it was that someone saw, it got interpreted as a crucifix.

      The point isn't that something definitely appeared in the sky in 774. There's a chance that someone made up the red crucifx, or hallucinated it, or the chronicler lied or garbled a story he heard fifth-hand. But if it did happen, there's no reason to think that there will be better written evidence than a vague line in one copy of the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

    3. Re:A few weeks ago in slashdot... by Sir_Sri · · Score: 4, Insightful

      When you're talking about events 1200 years ago you're not exactly looking for a telescope picture.

      There's evidence of a supernova, or possibly something else, from that time period in Japan. So what was it? Well, apparently in the UK they observed some weird shit that could have been a supernova. So it might actually have been a supernova.

      Imagine if this was the other way. There was some written european evidence of some weird red thing in the sky in 774. What would tell what that red thing was? a spike in carbon 14 in tree rings from that time period would make 'supernova' a good guess.

      It's not really a sciences problem, it's a language problem. Outside of Japan I bet most people didn't really care, and the Japanese didn't have the desire to search through piles of old foreign language documents on the vague guess they might say something that could have caused a carbon 14 spike in 773, 774 or 775. Digitized images and electronic search make that problem easier, and now the question for verification becomes one of finding if there are similar descriptions in other languages for that time period.

    4. Re:A few weeks ago in slashdot... by Gr8Apes · · Score: 2

      If other references are found that can indicate a better location, shouldn't there be a possibility of still finding the remnants today using one of the new sets of instruments available? I'm assuming without better information (date, approximate location in the sky) it'd be more like searching for a needle in a freshly mown hayfield, but even given the current information, it should be able to restrict the search to a single band across the sky.

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  3. Funding needed! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now this undergrad needs to get funding to track the source article down in it's original form and have it authenticated and cross verified with other ancient works. He will also need several other undergrads to cross check his work, several hours of super computer time or better their own workstations, also the usual funding for a trip (I mean "conference") of three weeks in the Bahamas to discuss all this with his peers after he writes the paper up and has it submitted to the proper journals to have the proper peer review that noone can afford to read in the correct publications. I figure 2 to 3 million dollars should do it. After all this could be the tiny spark of evidence as why reading tree rings and it's tree ring data should not or should be included in figuring out how Global Warming going back then and now, and how the whole normalizing of the tree ring data should be rethought! Micheal Mann should be all over this!

  4. Scientific mystery solved by Google by boristdog · · Score: 4, Funny

    Man, sciencing is so much easier these days.

  5. No, he did not by mapkinase · · Score: 5, Insightful

    He proposed an explanation more plausible than people before.

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  6. Slashdot comment on June 4 predates podcast by vossman77 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Interesting to me, is that in the linked article there is a slashdot comment with the "red crucifix" text discussed in this article.

    http://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2893343&cid=40208359

    The podcast that the student listened to was produced on June 7 and the slashdot comment was June 4. Hmm... to think user JustOK could have been in Nature.

    1. Re:Slashdot comment on June 4 predates podcast by kyrio · · Score: 2

      The way it sounds to me: kid sees post on Slashdot. Kid "reports his findings" to some prof. Kid gets published for doing even less than a Google search, he just stole* the information from a /. post. *Stolen because he lied about how he got the information.

    2. Re:Slashdot comment on June 4 predates podcast by BobNET · · Score: 2

      JustOK's sig is "rewriting history since 2109", so it's possible they just copied the Nature article from three weeks in the future.

  7. from older Nature article about the spike by mapkinase · · Score: 2

    "The increase in 14C levels is so clear that the scientists, led by Fusa Miyake, a cosmic-ray physicist from Nagoya University in Japan, conclude that the atmospheric level of 14C must have jumped by 1.2% over the course of no longer than a year, about 20 times more than the normal rate of variation"

    Does this mean that new supernova contributed 1.2% of radiation of all stars, including Sun? Does Sun contribute to Carbon 14 contents in tree rings?

    Were similar tree ring changes has been detected during known supernova events in history?

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  8. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Number of times this has happened: too many to count.

    That's not very scientific is it?

  9. physics question by slashmydots · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I didn't get way into physics in high school but I was interested. Hearing this explanation confuses me so there are probably more people than me who are wondering this. How exactly can cosmics radiation can cause carbon atoms in the atmosphere to gain neutrons? No new carbon is being formed, obviously, so existing carbon atoms would have to be turning into carbon-14 and I didn't think it was possible to just slip in another neutrons without basically blowing up the nucleus of any atom. I mean we don't "make" tritium for example by stuffing in more nuetrons magically, we have to sort it out of seawater. I would bet I could randomly throw my mouse and hit 3 physicists here at slashdot so could someone explain what the correlation between supernovas and carbon 14 is?

    1. Re:physics question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      The radiation turns one proton in a nitrogen atom into a neutron, changing the atom from nitrogen to carbon, with two extra neutrons.

    2. Re:physics question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      If you'd bothered to wikipede: "Cosmic rays are energetic charged subatomic particles, originating in outer space.They may produce secondary particles that penetrate the Earth's atmosphere and surface. The term ray is historical as cosmic rays were thought to be electromagnetic radiation." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_rays
      "Carbon-14 is produced in the upper layers of the troposphere and the stratosphere by thermal neutrons absorbed by nitrogen atoms. When cosmic rays enter the atmosphere, they undergo various transformations, including the production of neutrons."
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14

    3. Re:physics question by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's only a few nuclei that fall completely apart when they encounter a neutron. In fact, the first time physicists observed that happening, it was so unexpected that they didn't realize at first that it was what they were seeing.

      Most absorb the neutron, often having a secondary reaction that changes them to a different element.

      Tritium is not sorted out of seawater. With a half-life of 12 years it isn't found in nature. You may be thinking of deuterium.

  10. Re:No foresight! by slashmydots · · Score: 2, Funny

    Hmmm given all the evidence, I'd say it's actually a 49% chance red crucifix = UFO explosion over Japan (since apparently the radiation-stuffed trees were localized to just Japan I guess, although not many trees elsewhere live to be 1300 years old) and 49% chance there's an obvious link between reactor meltdown and the year 775 via a magic quantum portal time teleportation particle traveling effect thing that blasted carbon-14 into the past and 2% chance that we're all living in a computer simulation and some programmer left incorrect calculations in for trees in the year 775 on accident or for lolz or as an easter egg :-P

  11. Red Crucifix In the Sky Can Mean Only One Thing... by Trails · · Score: 2

    Dragons!!!

  12. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by Baloroth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And yet, without the religious text, there wouldn't even be a written record of what happened at all. I'd say everyone wins.

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  13. The word "dragon" used as a metaphor by perpenso · · Score: 2

    Is there also a mysterious layer of ash for the year 793? That year the chronicle has "fiery dragons flying across the firmament".

    And how might the people of that time and place describe near-miss asteroids that enter the atmosphere but do not impact the earth?

    Perhaps the word "dragon" was not meant to be taken literally and was merely used as a metaphor, a literary device?

  14. Unidentified Flying Crucifix by INeededALogin · · Score: 2

    I guess we can mark that UFC off the list. Next please.

  15. Re:Holy shit you're slow by Jeng · · Score: 2

    Why go the facebook route?

    The discussion is linked directly underneath the submission in the "related links" section.

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  16. Re:Could not have been... by camperdave · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Can't tell if stupid, or ignorant.

    Well, for it to have affected the entire planet, the supernova would have had to be on the celestial equator. If it was displaced significantly from the celestial equator, then the radiant energy from the supernova simply wouldn't hit the Earth's surface at certain latitudes - for the same reasons that the polar regions experience periods of perpetual darkness.

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  17. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 4, Funny

    And most of these "observations" of weird stuff in the night sky were due to the aurorae.

    As opposed to today, where they are due to alcohol.

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  18. Fiery crucifix in the skies of Kent by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2

    This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset;

    I'm a little dubious that a supernova, even one visible only in the west after sunset, would be described as a red crucifix. In astronomical photos stars look like crosses, but that's an artifact of the telescope optics, which they didn't have in the dark ages. A supernova just wouldn't look like a cross.

    On the other hand, I doubt it's aurora. Since England is pretty far north, and they didn't have artificial lights at night, they would see aurora far more often than we do now, and it just wouldn't rate such a mention. (Besides, an auroral manifestation in the shape of a cross? Dubious.)

    A sun pillar plus a layer of clouds would make a crucifix, though. I'll go with that as my most-likely explanation.

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  19. Re:Jesus! by GameboyRMH · · Score: 2
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  20. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by Seraphim_72 · · Score: 3

    So instead we get to worry about modern idiots being offended by something that wasn't offensive back in the day. Your Dogma is showing.

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  21. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by ExploHD · · Score: 2

    They drank more alcohol back then than in modern times. Before water treatment facilities, you drank the beer which was sterilized during the boiling, the alcohol would kill wild bacteria, and the hops inhibited growth of other bacteria. Beer is also a way to keep grains stored for a longer period of time; dry grain does eventually spoil.

  22. Re:Could not have been... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's irrelevant because C14 is derived from N14 in the upper atmosphere, and the atmosphere is well-stirred. The higher C14 would get mixed in globally no matter which side of the Earth was irradiated.

    The real issue is that all these sorts of "global event in year X" events start with a discovery at one or a few sites. For example, the iridium spike at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary was first found at Gubbio, Italy. Then it was found at dozens of other sites world-wide at the same boundary, but it took time to do those studies. Anyway, the original paper predicts that if you look elsewhere you should see similar spikes in C14 at that point in time in the record, which I assume people are already actively investigating. Give it a year or two and the possibility will either be confirmed (it is global) or negated (not found elsewhere, which probably means some other explanation).

  23. Re:Pics by yndrd1984 · · Score: 2

    One again Steve is having masturbation fantasies about fucking elven girls with big tits.

    And thanks to you now everybody's doing that. Next time keep your big mouth shut, and maybe we can get some work done.

  24. Re:Could not have been... by camperdave · · Score: 2

    It's irrelevant because C14 is derived from N14 in the upper atmosphere, and the atmosphere is well-stirred. The higher C14 would get mixed in globally no matter which side of the Earth was irradiated.

    Actually, only the troposphere is well stirred. The stratosphere and layers above it aren't stirred as much, and they settle into layers: hence stratosphere. Nevertheless, your point is well taken. By the time the excess C14 reaches the leaves of the trees, it is most likely well dispersed all over the planet.

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  25. It Seems Dubious on Physical Grounds by careysub · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I looked into the literature on supernovas and carbon-14 and found this: http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19690024196_1969024196.pdf also see: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1964)021%3C0134%3APOCBSP%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    The 775 C-14 spike is 20 times the normal level. According to this paper the closest recent supernova (the Crab Nebula supernova in 1054) was only capable of producing a spike 8% more than normal.

    To get a 2000% increase over normal you need a supernova 16 times closer, about 400 light years away, and 250 times brighter than 1054. The angular diameter of such a remnant today would be larger than the full moon, it seems unlikely that there are any dense dust clouds of this visible size for an object like this to hide behind. An obscure reference in the Anglo Saxon Chronicle does no a credible supernova make.

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  26. Re:Religious misinterpret phenomenon by riT-k0MA · · Score: 3, Informative

    Beer only keeps about eight to twelve months. Properly stored [whole] grain can keep for decades, possibly even centuries under the right conditions.