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Bill Gates: the Traditional PC Is Changing
Billly Gates writes "Bill Gates, in an interview with Charlie Rose last night, defended the move to Metro-ize Windows 8 and focus solely on the tablet experience (here's the video — tablet talk starts around 28 minutes in). When asked how traditional PC users will react, he explained that the world is moving into tablets, and a new PC needs to have both experiences integrated together. Also, he defended the move to build the Surface while charging his competitors a bundle for Windows 8. He says users have access to both experiences, whether it is a signature Microsoft one, or from an OEM. Is the a sign the desktop is dead or dying?"
Gates stopped short of saying the traditional PC is dead, but dodged direct questions about its future. This is a big change to the stance he has advocated in years past.
Bill is right, the traditional pc is changing... But is it too late for ms to figure it out, or has apple already sucked out all the oxygen? It sucks to be late to the party...
I don't see Apple shoving a grand unified UI down the throats of its tablet, laptop, and desktop users. And I don't see Apple users complaining or getting confused by tablet gestures vs keyboard/mouse operations.
How about we just standardize on the iPod? Put one wheel on the front of everything and be done with it.
Have gnu, will travel.
Mobile computing is the future
You say that like it's a bad thing.
It's not. You just gotta look at it right.
First, the rise of tablets and the decline of the traditional PC will if not kill Microsoft, at least knock it down to a shadow of its former self. They exist solely because of their monopoly in Windows, and Windows is rapidly becoming irrelevant.
Second, it's a Star Trek future! Your mobile device will fit in a shirt pocket. It will be able to feed you information through a glasses or even contact-lens HUD. When you need to enter a lot of information or use a large display, it will talk wirelessly to a keyboard and monitor... all from your shirt pocket! Voice commands will also improve beyond where Siri is now.
The very near future beings shirt-pocket computing more powerful than Star Trek tricorders and communicators. It frees us all from being bound to one spot in order to compute and game and browse.
The future is bright. Don't sound so glum bro! It's a true integration of computing and life, in a way we've never seen before. The next 10 years during this transition will be exciting indeed.
When I'm designing stuff (mechanical, schematic, PCB layout), I need a desktop computer: good optical mouse, comfortable chair, big monitor, full-sized keyboard, fast/loaded computer. I have tried to do that on a tablet or notebook, it's not even close. I agree with Spacejock, there is no replacement when you need real development.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein
The premise that Metro is a forgone conclusion for the way a tablet/phone experience succeeds is a poor one. The market has not shown that to be true. I figure Win8 is their move to try to force the issue and gain some traction by effectively throwing the desktop market under the bus, since they don't have to worry about losing those to competitors by and large (Vista proved that in relatively modern history).
I've always hated hot corners, and Windows 8 demands they be used a lot. Both in the annoying 'mouse happened to go to a corner of a screen, do something without user 'clicking' anything' and the somewhat more forgiveable hidden UI element to click on and do things. The hotcorners aren't as bad as the 'activities' hot corner of Gnome 3, but I find it a questionable choice, *particularly* in the context of touch interfaces where hot corners don't even have their 'auto-find' aspect that people like so much.
The jarring difference between 'Metro UI' and Desktop applications is unfortunate. It's especially bad where you have two 'Internet Explorers" that behave very differently. OSX full-screen really did this right, the full-screen app management pretty much let's the apps be the same in windowed and fullscreen mode, and just tweak the navigation/task switching.
The search feature is 'hidden' (a common theme in the Metro interface) as there is no visual indication of it's availability. For a keyboard user, I consider this minor, but wonder how it plays in a tablet UI, where typically a text field is a cue for virtual keyboard. More annoying is that the search by default hides all but 'Apps' results, meaning you have to note the non-Apps categories count when searching. Worse yet, that summary will auto-hide, leading you with no UI indication of actual results that you actually want.
All that said, conceptually there is one thing I think is nice about Metro and Gnome 3, the general concept that when you do 'Start' or 'Activities', that the entire screen real estate is dedicated to the action. I kind of prefer Gnome 3's view over the Metro start (the former giving better consideration for task switching rather than just launching).
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
You need a keyboard, monitor, mouse... not a desktop computer. All those things will be able to connect wirelessly to your tablet.
For the few uses that really NEED a desktop, they'll still exist, but will be a niche market and more expensive. They won't die entirely, just like mainframes haven't died entirely. There's still a mainframe market and business. Neither will desktops die, but they won't be used by the masses any more, so the price will rise accordingly as it becomes more and more niche.
Through it all we persevered. A few of us were preaching separating "GUI from kernel" "event driven code from procedural code". And we pulled extra hours to practice what we preached. Fellow developers from MS world randomly included afxwin.h deep inside non graphical kernel library code to add a one line debug statement, broke the linux builds and threw tantrums when called to fix the offending code, "it is working in Windows, so it can't be my problem. You fix it in Linux". We suffered all these indignities and got our product to build and run in Linux all the time. We no longer have a 3 month delay in releasing linux version.
Now this. Good riddance. Let the windows and its market dominance and its subsidizing the computing platform go chasing the tablets or whatever. Before Wintel monopoly we had 90% revenue fro unix sales, it dropped to 10% at the height, now linux is back up to 40%. If they cram the win-8 interface down the throat or make our software to be sold through appstore or something, our windows version sales will have no place to go but down. Finally sanity will return. We will separate content from presentation. We will separate gui code from non-graphical code. We will separate event driven code from procedure libraries. Vindication at last.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
The gaming thing is very deliberately a separate device designed to be a simplified streamlined experience. I'm sort of surprised they aren't doing a 'Windows Xbox' that's actually a fixed spec 86 PC that will then be guaranteed to play particular games.
The ARM thing doesn't seem to make any sense other than to try and coax Intel into believing there is some serious competition from a different direction than AMD, and hoping they'll innovate (or at least use their fabs to overpower ARM).
Yeah, running A strongarm[sic] for big pharma[citation needed] that pretends to eradicate disease without being able to get into every country where it is an issue because of regressive IP policies and attempt to shape education in a way that results in more sales for Microsoft [citation needed], using money that he effectively stole from the entire computing industry by illegally abusing a monopoly position in such a way that it held the computing industry back at least half a decade, and probably a whole one? I call that a selfish jerk, but I guess that's just because I own a dictionary."
Citation needed or it isn't true and I am not talking about unreliable sources like Tech Rights.
Where the hell is everyone going that the personal computer has to suddenly become "mobile computing"? I move around more than most people and despite my best efforts, I still can't find anything so freaking important that requires a computer while I'm going from point A to point B. I mean, I really want to justify the price of these tablets, but besides playing a few not-so-good games and watching some movies, it's just shopping and reading. Are any of those things so crucial that the entire world of personal computing has to be transformed into "mobile computing"? The reading thing is nice, but how "mobile" can you be when your battery doesn't even last half a day?
I hear a lot about how "mobile computing is the future" but I still don't understand the "I'm always on the move" part and I need that computer while I'm moving" part. I mean, I understand it, but not enough that the entire world of personal computing has to change.
I think what Mr Gates really means is "computers are for shopping, instead of making". I have yet to meet someone who has produced anything meaningful on a smartphone or tablet.
And does it matter to Mr Gates and the Zombie Steve Jobs that there are still a lot of us who actually want to make things with our computers and would actually like a nice powerful machine with a big screen and full-size keyboard? Maybe a couple of cool interfaces and controllers? A desk full of control surfaces, a variety of interface devices, good sound reproduction and display technology?
Why is it that whenever one of the god-kings makes a pronouncement like this I seldom feel that the actual desires and needs of consumers are being taken into consideration? It's all about what they want for us - what they think we should have.
Remember how we were all going to have netbooks? How tablets are the new black? Well, couple years have gone by and they're still just shopping interfaces and metered toys.
You are welcome on my lawn.
socialism just ensures that we all live in squalor. Just look at the ex-soviet state lifestyle
Choosing the USSR as an example of socialisim is like choosing Somalia as an example of capitalisim. The scandanavian countries are more socialist than most and they are definitely not "living in squalor". Thing is when you tie yourself to one ideology you automatically throw out all the good ideas from other ideologies which is why US citizens currently pay top dollar for a second rate health system.
The US system is ideologically afraid that someone will get "something for nothing", so afraid that they spend most of that extra money on an army of accountants that do nothing but try and work out who pays for what and how. In other words it's costing the average US citizen more to exclude each other from health care than it would to bite the bullet and implement a sane system (almost 10X more for a single-breadwinner family of four when compared to Australia's 'solialist' system).
you don't have a right to another's property without his permission
Of course not, but there are different definitions of what is and isn't private property. For example it's virtually impossible to amass billions in private property in a Scandanavian country due to the tax regime, meaning it's impossible for the bulk of the nations weallth to be concentrated into a few hands as it is in the US. This doesn't mean you can't be rich in a Scandanavian country, it just means you can't be filthy rich. And lets face it, most people become filthy rich via luck or hereditry, they DO NOT work any harder than the guy who cleans their corporate bathroom.
I'm no bill gates fan
I'm a big fan of his philanthropic activities, the guy has put his money where his mouth is and (along with Warren Buffet) has encoraged many other billionaires to make similar pledges. Did he (or any other multi-billionaire) do anything to "deserve" that level of property and power in the first place? - Definitely not.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Yes, that's it.
The traditional PC is changing to exactly match how Microsoft envisions it. Don't forget to always carry a stylus with you, because you need it if you are at all serious about creating content.
Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
Actually, there are more mainframes in use today than at any earlier point in history... and IBM keeps making sales for new ones (and not just to replace old ones either).
As a percentage of total installed computing power the mainframe has dropped substantially from the '60s, but they are not "dying" and the whole "cloud" thing is mostly a buzzword ridden version of mainframe computing that just isn't as reliable as a real mainframe.. nothing is new under the sun.
AntiFA: An abbreviation for Anti First Amendment.
The first generation GSM phones also lasted barely a day (and being a phone, for them battery life was even more critical than for tablets/laptops).
Later generations lasted for weeks - and subsequently battery life disappeared from advertising. Now current-generation smartphones take a serious step back on those battery lives, it's still generally good enough to not be an issue.
Tablets and laptops now have the battery life issue, but there are plenty of devices already on the market that advertise to last 8-12 hour on battery power alone. Even if in practice it's 6-8 hours, it means we're getting close to full day battery life (12-16 hours is enough for most purposes).
The display is the biggest obstacle; we need a fast-refreshing reflective colour screen, doing away with the backlight saves heaps of power.
I see Microsoft today, and I see a company that has no idea what it's doing. Well, I don't claim to know what is best to do, but I'd at least aim for consistency.
I'd thought about making an Ask Slashdot based on this premise, but I probably will never actually do it. So here's what *I* would do if I ran Microsoft.
Windows. Still a good product, at least on the desktop, but the brand keeps getting diluted, and attempts to "re-imagine" it or "re-invent" it simply will not work. On the desktop side, you really don't NEED to change much. Just keep focusing on making the existing experience incrementally better. Try to get boot times down to under a second, make it more stable, little improvements like that.
Windows Server? Can it. Windows Server is so far behind *technically* that it's not even funny. The only reason it's used is because a) it's far easier than Linux, and b) Microsoft. (B) won't last forever, so you know what? Give up. Give up a bit of control. Make the next Windows Server a Linux distro.
BUT
Don't do it like every other Linux distro.
The theme should be "it all works together seamlessly". Port Active Directory, port Exchange, port Microsoft SQL, port ASP.NET and everything (make sure it runs as Apache or nginx modules, though. IIS itself is a "maybe"). Wrap it all up in a GUI that makes things easy to figure out - your goal should be that you don't even need a manual. But don't ignore the command line and config files. Make the best damn Linux distro you can, and *sell* it.
Yes, sell. Obviously, anything open-source should stay open-source. Maybe even open-source the stuff that lets others integrate with you - AD stuff, .NET, and so on. But the big stuff? Keep it proprietary, and sell it. And not ridiculously overpriced, either.
In fact, hedge your bets on the desktop side as well. Port the Windows desktop environment over to Linux, because trust me, KDE and GNOME are fucking things up right now, and the Windows desktop experience is actually *better*. You don't even have to make it natively X11, just include an X11 library so all the old apps still work (like how OS X does it). And release for free tools that make Linux integrate well with Windows, stuff to EASILY integrate with AD and such. Yes, open-source stuff can do most of this already, but those are both a pain, and not supported by Microsoft.
Windows Phone? Drop it. You aren't going to win unless you have the apps. And WP7 does not have the apps. It does have some good ideas, though, some very good things. So you know what you should do? Take Android, and mod the shit out of it. Put Office on it. Make it integrate with Active Directory and Exchange and all that shit, so businesses will love it. Make it work with the Xbox and whatever else you've got. And license it out to whoever wants it. Make it "Android, but with ___, ____ and ___". Still compatible with the millions of Android apps, but it has several that, at best, you'd have to buy on the marketplace; at worst, simply not available.
The Xbox is one of the few things Microsoft's not just doing well, but is recognized as doing well. This is your new Big Brand. Make a new Xbox, price target $400-$500. It should be a powerful core-gamer machine. Let Nintendo have the low-end market with the Wii U. And make it more than a game console - you're doing well already, having Netflix and all that on there. Keep that up. Make it work with your WinDroid phone systems, both as a Wii U-like display for the console, and as a remote for Netflix and such. This way, you aren't just fighting Sony - you're also fighting Apple TV and whatever that Google thing is called. Keep backwards compatibility, maybe add a Blu-Ray drive (even if the movies aren't selling so well, it is good for games). But don't do anything crazy. Just... incremental improvements. Make one device that does the task of many others, well enough that it isn't a compromise, and cheaply enough that it's an option if you only actually want one part of it. Yes, that's
I am GLAD you asked that, Mr/Mrs AC, here is what I would do if Bill punt kicked the sweaty monkey and said "Alright Hairy, MSFT is in your hands, fix it" and ya know what? i would.
1.-While using the same underlying codebase, thus making patches easier and cheaper, I would go back to the roots of MSFT and have the X86 Business and Consumer lines separate again. This would let you try new things with the consumer line if you wish while leaving businesses (and gamers who also tend to not want bling as it sucks framerates) with a more conservative line. Both would get 10 years of support so there wouldn't be any reason for one or the other to get shunned, and I would also make it clear that during this transition Win 7 WILL be sold so companies wouldn't feel like they didn't have choice and neither would consumers. treat the customer right would be job #1 at Hairysoft.
2.- Split off WinARM which from now on will be called Metro, they will be given their own offices in Austin so that the MS Office and Windows teams won't be bugging them. They would be given a decent amount of cash, told to hire the best and brightest they can find in the mobile field and the ONLY requirements they would have that has ANYTHING to do with Windows and Office is a "it just works" mantra must be kept with regards to easy connection between Metro, Windows, and the X360/720. I would want any consumer to be able to hook any MSFT device to any other MSFT device with as few steps as possible, I would also have a tool free number for assistance if anybody has any trouble in that regard.
3.- Finally I would probably spin off the entertainment division so we wouldn't end up with any more Zune debacles, it would be headed by the X360 guys and again their ONLY mandate would be "it just works" and the continued use of DirectX so that porting between the systems would be as simple as possible. Visual Studio leads would stay in contact with both entertainment and Metro to make sure that VS would be incredibly easy to build applications for both the new X360/720 and Metro, again with a "it just works" mantra at play. I would also have a nationwide census taken with regards to VS and Office to find out what the pulse is with regards to both and what developers and hardcore office users want and need and we would give them that. Focus on your users and make their jobs easier would be the motto of the VS and Office teams.
I believe with this strategy I could kill the NIH and PHB bullshit that is infecting MSFT like a cancer and right the ship, making the Hairyfeet MSFT a force to be watched within 5 years, probably less. Instead of focusing on the consumer we would be focusing on the USER while giving the Metro team time and space to create truly great products without being tied down by the Windows legacy, while at the same time insuring that Windows X86 stays the #1 desktop planetwide now and in the future.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.