Algorithmic Pricing On Amazon 'Could Spark Flash Crash'
DerekduPreez writes "Sellers on Amazon's retail site are increasingly using high-speed algorithmic trading tools to automatically set prices, which could lead to a malfunction similar to the 2010 flash crash. According to the Financial Times, prices on Amazon's website change as often as every 15 minutes, where sellers are using tools traditionally developed by data miners at banks to ensure that their prices are always below their rivals'. Third-party software is allowing sellers to detect a competitor's price and automatically undercut that price by, for example, £1. However, this could lead to a situation similar to the U.S. flash crash, where algorithmic trading was blamed for stock prices falling to near zero and then bouncing back within 20 minutes." At Slashdot's sister site for Business Intelligence, Nick Kolakowski has some more information on this possibility.
I didn't read the article, but presumably the traders wouldn't allow their sale price to drop below the cost of the item plus the marginal expense to sell on Amazon.... so if anything, the prices will drop to at or near the cost of the item... Which is good for buyers, bad for resellers...
And that is a problem, why? Just like in the flash crash, some people lost money and some people got big deals. If you don't want it to affect you, don't get involved. In both cases, it hurts the organizations and institutions more than an individual trader/buyer/seller.
I'd like to see what happens when the sellers stop fulfilling orders. Plus how long before someone brings out a sniping tool for customers to purchase items when at the bottom of the curve?
Each vendor needs to add "is it worth it to let others control our prices" logic to its auto-pricers.
Is it worth it to let a widget normally priced at $10 to drop to $5? to $1? to $0.01?
Except for deliberate loss leaders and other promotional items, you may want to set your short-term "floor" to be somewhere around your actual costs and your long-term "floor" to be a bit higher.
If a competitor undercuts you below where you are willing to let your program auto-price and he keeps it there, you may want human intervention.
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
As long as Amazon forces the sellers to honour the price, then I don't see a problem. Pure market forces will balance the risk/reward for dynamic prices - if one or two consumers get lucky, then that's the cost of doing business.
The biggest mistake that the exchanges made following the flash crash was to cancel the errant trades - if you fuck up the pricing, you need to deal with the consequences. Getting rid of downside risk removes half the equation and blocks any incentive to play smart.
When you have nothing left to burn you must set yourself on fire
Who, other than the retailers, care if there is a "flash crash?" Presumably if they lose enough money on flash crashes they will stop with the algorithmic pricing.
Likewise, if I find algorithmic pricing makes prices unattractively high, I'll shop somewhere else. There has to be someone out there selling a product similar to what I want, without the algorithmic gouging.
In short, I think this is one case where we can trust the market to operate correctly.
[Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
If you think about this for 1min, you will realize that all the sellers have to buy the stuff themselves from somewhere. Obviously they will put in a limit so the price will never go so low that they would make a net loss. An since the buy-prices are not depending on the amazon-sell-prices, no such "flash crash" could possibly ever happen. Of course I do not expect some journalist to think for 1min before writing an article.
But if I buy a paperback copy of "Fifty Shades of Grey" for only $0.10 due to a flash crash in autogenerated stock prices, I metaphysically lose, society loses, civilization loses. The seller still wins, Mephistopheles wins, evil triumphs.
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Go read an Austrian economics book. Speculation is useful and voluntary. It's nothing at all like gambling unless you think betting on red changes the odds that red will come up in an honest casino.
A little history:
I was the first to automate price wars on amazon marketplace. (True thing.)
A friend had just joined marketplace with a freshly founded internet media sales joint after it opened and two weeks in was adjusting prices of his sale books manually. Like, seriously, clicking through 200 items a night and entering new prices. I told him to stop that nonsense and built an automated scraper, parser and some other tools in Python that would parse the actual websites for each of our articles ISBN and compare our prices to those of the competition (this was before the days of publicly available Amazon APIs), readjust our pricing to the cent accordingly and upload the freshly generated updates once all 200 000 items were parsed.
Orders went from 3 - 5 per day to 120 - 150 per day. My buddies were packaging books and CDs all day while I was sitting there grinning and petting my script and ama-bot setup (still those right here in my project folder :-) ). We made 700 000$ of revenue the first year. A few months in competitors started to do the same - no suprise, the concept is quite obvious to any computer or programming guy - and a ruinous price-war started. My friend went out of business a year later. We could have fine-tuned the automated price adjustments like the marketplace vendors are doing today, such as upping the price of an item only you have got in stock, but after a few bad business decisions my friend didn't want to continue. That was all back in the early 2000s (2003-2004ish).
On the issue discussed:
Before a Flash Crash can happen on sites like amazon marketplace, the vendors involved will either die a painfull death before or finetune their algorythims to a much more complex model. Those still alive and well today have done the latter, and even if updates occur every 15 minutes, I'd bet money that they are still watching the sales and revenue with the appropriate tools and with their own eyeballs, because you can lose thousands within minutes if you don't. You can automate a lot, but you can't automate day-to-day business decisions, especially in such markets.
Bottom line:
Crashes don't happen here, only individual foreclosures for those who don't watch out well enough.
My 2 cents. .... Aaaah, the memories ...
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
Another fine lesson in Slashdot Economic Theory brought to you by the letter G and the number zero.
It's also popular with Nobel Prize winners.
In general, Austrians take only one axiom (that humans act in attempts to better their lives), while other schools of economics take several.
Additionally, Austrians recognize the inability to run full-detailed simulations of the economy which give reliable results (The Calculation Problem). I feel if I elaborate any more on the matter, I will do injustice to the Austrian school (I am rude of tongue).
If you would like to learn more about the Calculation Problem with regards to Mises and his explanation of it, I'd recommend reading about it here. I will affix a warning to my previous sentence, that if you are of a delicate political or economic nature, such that you cringe, despair, or evince a developed opinion with regards to the usage of words like 'Socialism', as most Americans are either for or against, you may pass over, or otherwise read the linked text with colored vision; if you are the kind of person is easily inflamed or are prone to confirmation bias, you may save yourself some time and emotional distress by avoiding the reading of the linked text.
I am John Hurt.
The gas station example is specifically not horseshit. The number of independent gas station owners dropped dramatically after a number of insane regulations that required $100K's of dollars of unnecessary retrofitting.
From the WSJ:
Until the past five years or so, many gas stations were owned by the big energy companies. But most have since sold off their portfolio of stations to focus on more profitable areas, such as wholesale fuel sales.
Since 2008, for instance, Exxon Mobil Corp has sold more than 95% of the roughly 2,000 stations it owned, and it plans to sell the rest by year-end. Chevron Corp had 491 company-owned stations at the end of 2011, down from 1,348 in 2001.
Most U.S. gas stations are owned by tens of thousands of individual operators, many of whom have one or more locations. These independent station owners typically buy their fuel from distributors for the major fuel wholesalers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The regional distributors own or hire tanker trucks that go from the so-called racks at gasoline terminals to storage tanks at the individual stations.
The station owners, in turn, set their gas prices for consumers so that the average markup, or gross margin, on gas is typically around 15 cents or 16 cents a gallon.
Because consumers these days use plastic even for spontaneous small purchases such as gas, snacks and smokes, the station owners say their margins are eroding.
Frank Reluzco, owner of an Exxon station, auto-repair business and convenience store in Frederick, Md., said that roughly 90% of his sales are paid by credit card today, compared with about 75% five years ago. "It costs so much to fill a tank right now; no one's going to carry around that much cash."
Increased competition from supermarkets and warehouse clubs is also a challenge. Issaquah, Wash.-based Costco Wholesale Corp added its first gas pumps alongside one of its stores in Tucson, Ariz., in 1995.
Pain at Pump Is Hitting Gas Stations [April 5]