Mathematician Predicts Wave of Violence In 2020

ananyo writes "In a feature that recalls Asimov's Foundation series and 'psychohistory', Nature profiles mathematician Peter Turchin, who says he can see meaningful cycles in history. Worryingly, Turchin predicts a wave of violence in the United States in 2020. Quoting from the piece: 'To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator-prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analyzed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. 'I hope it won't be as bad as 1870,' he adds." We recently discussed similar research into predicting violence in the short term.

Comments

Regulation caused the Great Depression

[SuperKendall]

it was Reagan who began ignoring the lessons of the Great Depression

Odd then it was Reagan who prevented a similar collapse just as we were on the edge from Carter - liberal revisionism knows no shame, and seeks to hoodwink a younger generation.

No, in truth it was in fact regulation that caused the great depression.

The younger readers out there, do not be fooled again - read the WHOLE truth rather than be fed the small twisted portion those who would impose a liberal tyranny upon you insist is the "truth". Break the cycle of poverty and misery than liberals impose upon us all every three generations or so, now at last with the internet it's easy to research the entire story on anything and not listen to any one interest group.