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Is Windows 8 Microsoft's Riskiest Bet?

Posted by Soulskill on from the sometimes-you've-gotta-roll-the-hard-8 dept.

Microsoft has rolled out many new products and many revisions of old products over the past couple of decades. The releases haven't always gone well, as in the case of Windows Vista, but Redmond has managed to ride out the rough patches. However, Windows 8 is an even more dramatic revamp of one of Microsoft's top products than Vista was. At the same time, they're piling their tablet hopes onto Windows 8 as well. Does this make it Microsoft's riskiest bet ever? "Thus the problem facing Microsoft: How to convince Windows users to rush out and buy an upgrade of a perfectly good (and relatively new, at least by Windows standards) operating system? Compounding the issue is the new Windows 8 design, with a Start screen that discards the traditional desktop interface in favor of a bunch of colorful tiles linked to applications. That revamp is supposed to make Windows 8 more touch-screen friendly, and thus optimized for tablet use; but it could turn off consumers who don’t like change, not to mention businesses that shudder at the idea of retraining their workers in new ways of doing things. ... if Surface and the other Windows 8 tablets fail to make an impact on the market, then Microsoft will have lost a major chance at seizing the new paradigm, which is centered on mobility and the cloud. Meanwhile, that same paradigm shift is drifting the center of peoples’ computing lives from desktops and laptops to smartphones and tablets—which puts Windows’ traditional center of strength at long-term risk.

15 of 362 comments (clear)

  1. It's Not A Bet... by ilikenwf · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's suicide.

    1. Re:It's Not A Bet... by Missing.Matter · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Actually, according to Ballmer, the answer is yes:

      Pescatore asked Ballmer what he considered to be Microsoft's "riskiest product bet."

      ... Ballmer's answer? "The next version of Windows."

      http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/ballmer-riskiest-product-bet-by-microsoft-is-the-next-release-of-windows/7786

    2. Re:It's Not A Bet... by Locutus · · Score: 5, Interesting

      it is so far looking like an attempted suicide and all because someone thinks all their products must run the same UI. And it's a phone UI tuned to work on tablets forced down to all users of their desktop devices. As we've seen the iPod->Touch->iPhone-iPad migration while Apple has left the MacOS as a different product at the UI level. We've seen Android on phones to TVs, infotainment systems and tablets without any push to desktop systems. But along comes Microsoft with a migration from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone and it's Metro UI( yes it's easier to define it as Metro because they have for 2 years on the phone ) based on Windows CE and a port of Windows 7 to ARM with the Metro UI on it for phones and tablets while at the same time forcing desktop users to endure the Metro UI also. that is just nuts. But I can see that with the failiure of Windows Phone 7 to gain any market share and even the loss of their market share held with Windows Mobile, Windows 8 not only would have not apps but be the same as Windows Phone 7 but different only under the hood. Developers developers developers as Monkey Boy once danced is once again their bet. Because they are forcing desktop developers to make Metro apps for teh desktop and by default they can be listed as developers for tablets and phones. Not to unlike how they killed off PenOS by Go Inc by marketing how many developers they have on the platform(Pen for Windows) when it was mostly smoke and mirrors.

      They are attempting suicide but they still know that for OEMs to dump Windows, the OEM would have to create either new partnerships with something new to the desktop in the scale of Windows shipments or create their own software org to tune something like a GNU/Linux version to be desktop ready. Much like how Corel once did that with Corel Linux.

      I do think they will be pushing many many many of their customers to the Mac. Their OEMs will shrink as sales of new systems fall and Microsoft will spend billions subsidizing their own hardware products in attempts to gain a market share in the double digits. It'll be suicide by one thousand cuts and a slow death unless they give the desktop back a familiar UI and quick like. IMO.

      LoB

      --
      "Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
    3. Re:It's Not A Bet... by gtall · · Score: 5, Funny

      In the not too distant future, Ballmer is standing in front of the MS faithful. In a fit of unconstrained euphoria, he rips the mask off his face and reveals....Stephen Elop. Said the Elopster before dancing off the stage, "I just knew I could fry a bigger fish than Nokia...bwahahahahaha!!"

    4. Re:It's Not A Bet... by hairyfeet · · Score: 5, Interesting

      No shit. Zune, Kin, Sidekick, rushing the x360 out with a 2 billion dollar flaw...the man is a disaster.

      For those that want an unbiased review of what to expect with Win 8 I've run DP, CP, and RP on nearly a half a dozen different machines here at the shop so I'd say that makes me at least qualified to give the review, along with watching my customers look lost and get frustrated on the win 8 CP I've had running on the shop floor, so here goes...

      Do you have a little netbook or laptop, preferably 10-12 inches but no bigger than 15? Then you probably only run one app at a time and your screen is low res enough win 8 will look fine. Are you gonna buy this on a tablet or smartphone? then i'm sure it'll work fine there as well. Do you never ever install more than a half dozen programs? Then the new tile UI won't make you want to pull your hair out.

      For everyone that doesn't fit that description? RUN, run as fast as you can and grab you a copy of Win 7 NOW, don't wait, get it and hang onto it like a drowning man hanging onto a lifejacket. Because the Tile UI quickly becomes a huge mess when you add programs so soon you end up with this multiple page PITA UI, most of the Tile "apps" and many of the Windows programs themselves are obviously written for low res screens and look like ass on anything 1600x900 or better, the only "advantage" which is faster boot is a lie and a hack (Google "Win 8 hybrid boot" to see what I mean) and in every appreciable way it feels like a boat anchor tied to your productivity. And ZOMFG do NOT open to any depth in control panel, it becomes this giant shotgun tile nightmare o' doom!

      The sad part is while the guts are fine in reality...its WinPhone folks, that's ALL it is. Its WinPhone ported to the desktop so MSFT can try to force people to like the Tile UI and get a piece of that appstore iMoney that Apple has been rolling around in, but like everything else Ballmer touches its half assed, obviously designed by committee, its a trainwreck is what it is.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    5. Re:It's Not A Bet... by GIL_Dude · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I do agree with most of your points. For example I have a dual screen setup at work - one 27" 2560 x 1440 screen and one 23 inch 1680 x 1050 rotated to portrait (mostly for PDFs, Word docs, etc.). Why would I want one app at a time on that huge screen? It just makes no sense. After running all the releases like you did (DP, CP, RP) I am now on the RTM build. On Win 7 I can click on Freecell and boom! I have a card game going. On Win 8? Download a 196 MB app from the MS Store. It wants me to login to xbox Live like I was playing Halo or something. For freaking Freecell! It loads extremely slowly and takes a bunch of clicks to get a game going - and only runs in that full screen interface that used to be called Metro mode. Garbage.

      On the other hand, the advances they've made to the core of the OS are very nice. Once you get to the desktop, as long as you create shortcuts for the stuff you use a lot, it is fine. But that new UI is definitely not for large screens.

    6. Re:It's Not A Bet... by Missing.Matter · · Score: 5, Insightful

      For those that want an unbiased review of what to expect with Win 8 I've run DP, CP, and RP on nearly a half a dozen different machines here at the shop so I'd say that makes me at least qualified to give the review, along with watching my customers look lost and get frustrated on the win 8 CP I've had running on the shop floor, so here goes...

      Do you ever actually tell your customers where to find the start menu? Because Microsoft does as much when you log in for the first time. Seriously, it takes one sentence to figure out the UI: "Move your mouse to any corner." Tell your customers that one sentence and you'll probably be met with a chorus of "oooooh, ok." With that one sentence you've now told the user how to access the start screen, how to share files and webpages, how to manage devices, how to switch apps, and how to manage settings.

      Then you probably only run one app at a time and your screen is low res enough win 8 will look fine. Are you gonna buy this on a tablet or smartphone? then i'm sure it'll work fine there as well. Do you never ever install more than a half dozen programs? Then the new tile UI won't make you want to pull your hair out.

      You've just described about 90% of computer users right here. My parents have a 23" 1080p display, and the first time they booted up the PC they forced it down to a lower resolution because it's more comfortable for them (I then opted for the higher resolution but higher DPI which they liked as well). They also have only about a dozen programs installed and ever use one or two at a time. Microsoft's own research shows as much, and the hundred million or so iPad users will probably agree as well.

      Since the PC was introduced, most people have been completely afraid of it. People I know treat it as this fragile, delicate machine that if they press the wrong button, they'll completely destroy it, and as a result they don't get the full utility from their machine. Apple came around and introduced an easy to use, friendly, consistent, yet limited interface and normal people have been lauding it ever since. The limited aspect is all people on Slashdot are focusing on. Most users have always felt trapped by the classic windows UI, so this "limited" UI will probably be very liberating to them.

      For everyone that doesn't fit that description? RUN

      Why? Just install a classic shell or launcher and boot to desktop. You have the traditional UI with all the benefits Windows 8 offers. Windows 8, by most OS measures, is an excellent OS. It's fast. It's stable. It's secure. It's compatible. It's extensible. The only real point of contention for this community is one aspect of the user interface, which is completely optional and can be shoved aside if you so desire. Seriously, visit any Slashdot article even remotely pertaining to Windows 8 and every comment is about metro. No one is talking about how unstable it is. No one is talking about how it's a dog on old hardware. No one is talking about gaping security issues, or rampant driver instability, or application incompatibility as we were 6 years ago with Windows Vista. That's because Windows 8 is by all accounts a good OS in all of these respects. What we're left bitching about is probably the most personal and subjective element of the OS, the UI, and subsequently the most easily customized and replaced element as well.

      Because the Tile UI quickly becomes a huge mess when you add programs so soon you end up with this multiple page PITA UI

      The start screen is for you to customize, not an installer. You choose the color, choose the background, choose the tiles that are pinned, choose their size, choose how they are grouped, and choose whether they display live updates or not. That's a lot of options for customization. No longer is an installer supposed to install a launcher, an uninstaller, and docs + utilities to your start screen like they did with the start menu. That nons

  2. Thanks again Obama! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Windows 8...another thing to add to the long list of Obama's failures...

    1. Re:Thanks again Obama! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      LOL of course it is... you can tell by how confused the republican is.

    2. Re:Thanks again Obama! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      That's because you are liberally biased. Spend five minutes watching a *real* news channel such as Fox News and you will see how Obama has destroyed this country. But of course you being a liberal, "facts" and "truth" don't come into play.

    3. Re:Thanks again Obama! by bwintx · · Score: 5, Funny

      "*real news channel"
      "such as Fox News"

      > WHOOSH not detected
      > does not compute
      > humor fail
      > end program

      --
      Discussion System prefs link: http://slashdot.org/users.pl?op=editcomm
  3. Maybe a calculated risk. by fragfoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think it is an educated risk, Windows 7 is well done and robust, and still has a future, much like XP lived all those years. So they are throwing Win 8 to see what happens.

    --
    Sig? Heil
  4. Re:Well is relative by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I recall the angst surrounding Windows 95. Pretty much everybody had the same idea - it's the end of Microsoft as we know it. On top of that, the world was ending, Carter was a failure, the Russians were winning and we're all gonna die.

    Nothing to see here, move along.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  5. Not even remotely close by dkleinsc · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The riskiest bet Microsoft ever made was selling IBM an operating system before they actually had one to sell. Imagine what would have happened to the fledgling Microsoft had they failed to come up with the product in time.

    --
    I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
  6. I can't see a reason to buy it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Posting Anon because, well, I'm posting this on an rtm Win 8 machine so you guess why.

    The persistent question is "Why did we do this?" It's not faster, not more intuitive, not easier, not really anything more than pretty IF you're using Win 8 on a computer. It is really nice on a small touchscreen device, but that's not the big debate.

    What does Win 8 give me on the desktop versus Win 7?
    Not really anything except for a terribly ugly fullscreen MEGABIG START MENU with icons that update themselves.
    More navigation and less actual work. A lot of extra clicks to find simple crap like control panel settings.
    IE 10, which despite what the terribly annoying ads say is still embarrassingly slow compared to Firefox.
    And wtf if I just want to work some documents? I have to dig thru even more "Libraries" and "Favorites" and "Desktop > User > Libraries" and "Recent Places" that all point to the same folders and confuse the living hell out of novice users. Putting "tiles" on top of this does not help, it makes it worse.

    The straight poop is that "people" (the larger part of the 80/20 pop) do not care about the details of this. They just want to use a browser and email that point to data in the magic cloud, and they want to use word and excel that point to documents they can see/move/copy/delete locally in one or two clicks. Win 7 is a 2- or 3-click UI, so people tend to like it, and get used to the annoyances in trade for being pretty stable. Win 8 is a 4-5-click + dual-personality UI so more likely than not we're f#cked.

    I ask folks over on the Win8 team whether they learned anything from the large userbase hit Ubuntu took when they implemented Unity, an UI similar to the Metro^h^h^h^h^hWin8 UI. Most of them don't even know about it, don't look at OSX, never heard of X11 or Gnome, KDE, etc etc. They have no interest; a lot of this crap was thought up in a vacuum, given cursory userlab testing, and whatever looked shiniest and had the most political oomph internally got shoved into this half-baked mess. Don'tCallItMetroBecauseMetroAGSuedUs? Apparently we have as much due diligence to the name as we gave to much of the UI design.

    Maybe I'm underestimating the number of Win8/Surface tablets we're going to sell, but I'm putting in a sell order...