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Poll-Based System Predicts U.S. Election Results For President, Senate

Posted by timothy on from the pyschopathic-narcissists-for-the-tie dept.

An anonymous reader writes "Election Analytics is a website developed by Dr. Sheldon Jacobson at the University of Illinois designed to predict the outcomes of the U.S. presidential and senatorial elections, based on reported polling data. From the site: 'The mathematical model employs Bayesian estimators that use available state poll results (at present, this is being taken from Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac, among others) to determine the probability that each presidential candidate will win each of the states (or the probability that each political party will win the Senate race in each state). These state-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2012 presidential election. In the case of the Senate races, the individual state probabilities are used to determine the number of seats that each party will control.'" You can tweak the site by selecting a skew toward the Republican or Democratic tickets, and whether it's mild or strong. Right now, this tool shows the odds favor another four years for Obama, even with a strong swing for the Republicans.

13 of 519 comments (clear)

  1. Not possible! by damn_registrars · · Score: 4, Funny

    Fox news tells me that Romney will win 59 states and sweep Obama and his extreme socialism away forever.

    Meanwhile, 13 out of 10 slashdotters are supporting Ron Paul, so clearly he is the only possible winner.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
    1. Re:Not possible! by turkeyfish · · Score: 3, Funny

      "Well, Paul Ryan ran a marathon in 43 seconds, so how could his ticket lose?"

      Well, ever since he made this remark and it was picked up by Runner' World, he has been running backward ever since.

    2. Re:Not possible! by Kimomaru · · Score: 5, Funny

      Not true. He's the nominee because they ran out of Republicans. Remember Michelle Bachman? Herman Cain? Newt Gingrich? Rick Santorum? John Huntsman?! I'm sure I'm forgetting half a dozen more.

    3. Re:Not possible! by artor3 · · Score: 4, Funny

      I really don't know what Romney gives a damn about. It seems like he's been on both sides of every issue so who can tell what he believes?

      Isn't it obvious? He believes, quite firmly, that he should be president.

  2. MSNBC is just as biased by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    MSNBC told me that 2+2=4! That's biased towards those dam socialist mathematicians and scientists. Every good free-thinkin' fam'ly values-lovin' 'Mur'kin knows that 2+2=5!

    1. Re:MSNBC is just as biased by ILongForDarkness · · Score: 4, Funny

      2+2 does not equal 4 factorial.

  3. Re:Rasmussen isn't a polling agency by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's renown among serious pollsters as a paid-for propaganda site.

    YOU LIE!!!1

  4. Big deal. I can accurately predict it, too. by Seumas · · Score: 5, Funny

    I predict that our next president will be an asshole.
    And the one after that, too.
    And the one after that.

    1. Re:Big deal. I can accurately predict it, too. by Bryansix · · Score: 4, Funny

      I predict that our next president will be an asshole. And the one after that, too. And the one after that.

      This is probably the only true statement in this entire thread.

  5. Re:Interesting Algorithm by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

    and we have a weak opponent on the Republican ticket

    "We"?

    Who's there with you? Or is this the royal "we" as in, "My maid was cleaning the silver with a paper towel and I had to explain to the wretched girl that we don't use paper towels on the silver here at the Romney house. I'm seriously thinking of sending her back to Ecuador."

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  6. Re:Interesting Algorithm by Arabian+Nights · · Score: 5, Funny

    Ron Paul is a better Republican candidate. They're saving him for 2016, when he'll defeat Biden in a landslide.

  7. Re:Interesting Algorithm by arth1 · · Score: 4, Funny

    Ron Paul is a better Republican candidate. They're saving him for 2016, when he'll defeat Biden in a landslide.

    I for one welcome our new geriatric overlords.
    Can we get Bob Dole and John Glenn as VP candidates too?

  8. Re:Interesting Algorithm by Arancaytar · · Score: 1, Funny

    Republicans will logically

    Yeah right.