Complex Systems Theorists Predict We're About One Year From Global Food Riots

pigrabbitbear writes with conjecture on what triggers global unrest. Quoting the article: "In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest."

Comments

Like the saying goes..

[Anonymous Coward]

No man is more than three square meals away from revolution.

Still Wrong

[lgw]

"Experts" have been incorrectly predicting that vast swaths of humanity would startve to death at least since Malthus. How can claims like this still be taken seriously?

Perhaps I could buy the claim that "food riots will happen, despit no lack of food"; after all, we do as a species love to protest. We produce enough food to feed everyone as the populaiton grows while less land is needed for farming every decade. The WHO warns about similar numbers of people facing obesity problems as they do starvation problems. Yes, there will always be governments that withhold food as a weapon against their own citizens, but beyond that any claim of a food shortage just seems silly.

Re:Still Wrong

[Anonymous Coward]

My current net worth is about $600,000 and I have this in my basement. I'm pretty sure I don't have to worry.

Re:Still Wrong

[LordLucless]

I hear that argued by the religious right anytime the subject of overpopulation comes up

Yay, political/religious generalizations straight off the bat. Clearly, this post is going to be quality.

We have a planet with a comfortable capacity of 5 billion

Source? Or did you just pull a convenient number out of your backside? WHO estimates of human population levelling (~10 billion) place it somewhere below the median range of the estimated carrying capacity of the earth.

I put the people who downplay the potential for mass starvation in the same category as people who deny climate change. They're both whistling past the graveyard so they don't have to make any sacrifices in terms of changing their lifestyle.

Probably because there's no need to change their lifestyle. There is not a finite amount of wealth; the fact that western nations are wealthy does not necessitate that undeveloped nations be kept so. As an example, look at Malawi; within five years, with a fairly simple improvement in the form of a fertiliser subsidy, Malawi went from famine to being a food exporter. The same thing happened in India with the Green Revolution. Now imagine if they applied more modern techniques, like widespread irrigation, or high-yield strains of grain.

Re:Still Wrong

[MtViewGuy]

In fact, every major famine in the 20th Century was caused NOT by major crop failures, but by deliberate political policy or the effects of war.

Famous examples of this include the forced collectivization of farms in the Ukraine between 1928 and 1933, the time of the warlords in China during the 1920's and 1930's when fighting disrupted food supply, the effects of the the invasion of China by Japan (which also disrupted food supply), the "Great Leap Forward" in China that seriously affected food production, and the political policies of dictators in Africa during the second half of the 20th Century.

Re:Still Wrong

[benjfowler]

My grandfather's family left England during the Great Depression, because they were so poor, they could barely afford bread and dripping, if that (dripping, I was told, was a bit of a treat). They ended up swapping a life of borderline starvation for what amounted to indentured servitude on a farm in the middle of outback Australia, but at least they got to eat. My old man nonetheless spoke of killing feral rabbits because that was the only meat they could afford.

My other grandfather was quite literally enslaved by the Allies for two years after WW2, labouring on a wheat farm, because there were massive food shortages after the Russians had done burning, looting and raping Germany.

My grandmother was billeted to a family in Switzerland during the war because her family wouldn't afford to feed her (war apparently isn't good for kids either).

So yeah, hunger is certainly within living memory for most of our families. Thank God that Western civilization has the basics right, and that we're all obese two short generations later.

Re:Still Wrong

[taiwanjohn]

It's time for people to start learning about permaculture. The "green revolution" is nearing its end, as the petroleum on which it depends reaches peak production. The way forward is to grow as much of your own food as possible, buy your food as locally and seasonally as possible, and promote the adoption of sustainable farming practices, either via the political process or by directly supporting local farmers who use them.

Permaculture can be practiced through various methods in almost any type of climate, and it's scalable from a backyard plot to a thousand-acre spread. It uses no chemical inputs, requires far less water, and actually builds up more topsoil instead of eroding it out to the ocean.

A few examples to check out:

1. Managed grazing. Joel Salatin's Polyface Farm is a prime example of this method which produces insane amounts of beef, pork, and poultry on just 100 acres of grassland. (The average farm in their county gets 80 cow-days per acre; Polyface gets 400!)

2. Aquaponics. Will Allen's "Growing Power" co-op in Milwaukee is a great example of aquaponics, which is a cross between aquaculture (fish farming) and hydroponics. Basically, fish produce waste which feeds the plants, and plants clean the water to keep the fish healthy.

3. Pasture-cropping (aka "no-kill" farming). Australian Colin Seis is credited with inventing (or rediscovering) this technique of planting row crops on pasture land without plowing-under the grass. Instead, the grass is grazed or mowed prior to planting, which gives the crop plants a head start before the grass comes back.

There's a ton of info about all this stuff on the web, especially on YouTube. Check it out.

Has anyone ever noticed...

[GrpA]

That the contemporary "Zombie" as portrayed in movies, at the receiving end of a chainsaw or shotgun, looks and acts very much like a hungry person would?

Sometimes I wonder if that's just a co-incidence or by design... After all, there's not much difference between a starving person calling out "Brains" and "Grains" is there?

And when I do wonder that, I really, really hope it's by co-incidence.

GrpA

Article vs. paper

[tomhath]

The linked motherboard essay places most of the blame on global warming, but the 2011 paper concludes:

While there have been several suggested origins of the food price increases, we find the dominant ones to be investor speculation and ethanol production.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter, because there was never a shortage of grain - just high prices. The US wasted millions of tons of grain making ethanol in a misguided attempt to not burn fossil fuel.

So Start Global Gardening Riots

[IonOtter]

The next time you're driving to work, take a glance to your left.

That 30' wide median strip? You know, the one they pay some public works teams to spend an entire week mowing several times a season? Yeah. Fully exposed to sunlight, easy access, on a major transportation route.

Now, granted, you're not going to want to grow food veggies in the median of a major interstate? Too much toxins from the exhaust and worse. But now that we've got the idea in your heads, take a look at the medians in your local town. Definitely not as much traffic, but sometimes just as wide, covered in very thirsty, very costly grass and/or other landscape plants, and 100% under-utilized.

So. When it looks like the global food riots are going to start, show up at your local council/zoning board and say, "Here's what's going on, here's what we're going to do about it. We will be growing food. We will take care of all maintenance and upkeep, and save the town (insert 5-6 figure amount) of dollars per year. If you interfere, we will sue you into oblivion. If you try to arrest us, we'll keep coming in until we're all incarcerated. Then YOU will have to pay for feeding us."

Re:Catastrophe

[HairyNevus]

It is possible now, in fact the world creates enough Calories to feed the current population--starvation is a distribution problem. Thanks to Norman Borlaug, we now have corn that creates Vitamin A and 100% of your essential amino acids, and that was years ago. A worldwide team of crop experts has been crossing rice strains to make a type that is highly suited for a hydroponics environment as a way of dealing with the issue of available cropland in Asia. Overall, every staple grain has seen a trend in the last two decades of higher-yield and less maintenance.

You can focus on hype, people waving predictions in your face about potential worst-case scenarios, but those who study "The World Food Problem" know there's equal parts messages of caution and hope.

Some numbers to consider and research

[WillAdams]

Current industrial farming practices use 10 calories of energy (mostly from petrochemicals) to produce 1 calorie of food.

Contemporary farming techniques are heavily dependent on petrochemicals to produce fertilizer.

Contemporary farming techniques deplete topsoil faster than it will naturally replenish.

That said, there're a lot of dandelions and wild garlic in most yards (and more acreage in lawns in the U.S. than any single crop).

Re:Something I've been watching...

[Grayhand]

You're trying to be funny but you were closer to the truth than you realized. I've been working on the concept of a food tower. Essentially it's a skeletal structure that would use either hydroponics or container plants or both. Ironically the plan was for a 20'X20", as in 400sgft, footprint so it'd fit in the space of a two car garage or a normal backyard. It would be a two to three story open structure made of rebar or pipe with rows of hydroponic pipe or plant containers space 32" apart vertically. Counting the ground row it would give you ten rows each 160' long or 1600' linear feet in a 20X20 space. You can also create rows across the top and by staggering the planting double the length by having inside and outside rows. Including the double rows and figuring a 120' of rows across the top you get a total of 3320'. That's just short of a quarter acre of growing space in a 20X20 area. You just need a single pump and it gravity feeds from there. If you live in an area with moderate weather you should be able to provide most of your food for a family of four in the space of a garage. Add in a 20X20 greenhouse for cooler weather and to start seedlings and you'd be in good shape for year round fresh food. It's our whole approach to food that needs to change. Check out this video for a prime example. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfScfxkmWw4&feature=related They are growing a million pounds of food on three acres. I did the math before I saw any of the articles and videos and I'd say it could be done on an acre. 3 to 5 acre farms could feed a 1,000 people each including most of their meat except for beef, cattle require lots of grass. A 15 to 20 acre could provide all the chicken, pork and fish as well as shrimp for a 1000 people with even some cattle and sheep. I'm talking free range field raised not factory. All the food would be organic and pesticide free. Most of the water is recycled in this type of farm and they produce their own mulch so it's a semi closed organic system. We need to rethink how food is producedto survive the next 100 years.

It's the oil.

[Karmashock]

The high price of oil is largely what is driving grain prices up. Higher water prices are also not helping.

I can't speak for the rest of the planet, but in the US many politicians have been attracted to the idea of getting the US off oil by artifically raising the price of oil. Well, that's an idea but there are consequences. And one of those consequences is that everything linked to fuel goes up in price as well.

The other issue is water. Many cities have grown in size while not increasing their water resources. They haven't built reservoirs at the same rate that their populations have increased. And as a result, when there is a water shortage they run out of water much faster then they should. In the real world yearly rainfall is not constant. It changes from year to year. But it is fairly consistent decade over decade. so what you do is have storage such that you can survive a few bad years by gathering extra water in the good years. THIS IS BASIC. The Romans had this down to a science.

What the cities have been doing instead is pilfering the farmer's water to make up their own shortfall. They figure "oh the farmers use lots of water, why build more infrastructure when it's easier to just gank their water." Well fine... genius move... Farmers in Australia started literally... LITERALLY committing suicide when the local government started taking their water away. They were losing their family farms... and all because they couldn't get any water. And why? Because the cities didn't build water infrastructure that had been planned over 50 years prior to that point.

So why is food going up? Because politicians are dicking over farmers. It's the sort of short sighted penny wise and pound foolish thinking we've come to expect from the political class. They only think about the next election and never about planning for the future.

It's really pretty simple. If you want more food... grow more food. How do you grow more food? Provide what farmers need to grow food.

That is... fuel for farm equipment (unless you want to mobilize 60 percent of the labor force to do farm labor), oil for pesticides (unless you want upwards of 50 percent of all produce to be eaten by insects before it reaches market), fertilizer (unless you want farmers to use 80 percent more land and 80 percent more water), and of course... Water.

The cities need to stop stealing the farmer's water and politicians need to stop dicking with the fuel supply.

That or enjoy spiking food prices and global instability as large portions of the developing world start literally starving and things get really ugly.

Re:Catastrophe

[MightyYar]

Everything you suggested will just reduce prices, inducing someone else to use those resources. You either need to force everyone on board (everyone in the world) or your solution is not effective. Your solutions make you feel good, and that might be enough reason to do them. Your intentions are noble, and that is to be commended. But if one locust in a hoard doesn't eat the grain in the field, the field will still get devoured.

Re:1984 - since 1950's !

[dywolf]

You forgot to mention that the growth rate is slowing, particularly as two certain countries (admittedly, slowly) uplift themselves, with the most common studies expecting a plateau to begin appearing around 10-11 billion.

No it doesnt help that 1/3 of american corn is diverted to ethanol (but thats another issue).
But the problem (as has been stated millions of times) isnt food production, its food distribution.

I love this page: http://flowingdata.com/2011/07/27/if-the-world-lived-in-a-single-city/
Houston is pretty spread out, ~3700 people per sq mile. that's ~5.7 people per acre.

Living in cities amplifies the food thing cause people aren't growing their own, and so are dependent on a few people to supply them. Thats called civilization and specialization and a buncha other things. But even so, it still comes down to distrubution. Ever work in a grocery? You see how much stuff we throw away due to rules about experiation and what not in a typical grocery store?

Again. Not a quantity problem, its a distribution problem.

So the doom and gloom? Not warranted.