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How We'll Get To 54.5 Mpg By 2025

concealment writes "At the end of August this year, the US Department of Transport's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced new standards to significantly improve the fuel economy of cars and light trucks by 2025. Last week, we took a look at a range of recent engine technologies that car companies have been deploying in aid of better fuel efficiency today. But what about the cars of tomorrow, or next week? What do Detroit, or Stuttgart, or Tokyo have waiting in the wings that will get to the Obama administration's target of 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2025?"

18 of 717 comments (clear)

  1. nothing new at all needed by iggymanz · · Score: 5, Informative

    cars suitable for average daily use by more than half the people with that kind of fuel efficiency have been available for decades.

    1. Re:nothing new at all needed by SecurityGuy · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Spot on. I half intended to make a sarcastic post about how all we need is to get everyone to be willing to drive a plastic car with a 40 hp engine, but truly for a lot of people including me, a small (but safe) car is sufficient.

      I actually sold cars briefly. One customer who stuck in my mind was a little old lady who really wanted an 8 cylinder engine. This was about 1990. She might have settled for a 6, but a 4 was no sale, no way. Blew my mind. My own 4 cylinder car sitting in the parking lot, barely out of econo-box class, would do 120 mph. What the hell did she think she needed an 8 cylinder engine for?!? She would not be swayed. A lot of us, me included, are not so different from that old lady.

    2. Re:nothing new at all needed by locopuyo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      A poorly designed merge section from one highway to another is what convinced me I needed a quick car.
      It isn't safe merging into 60+ MPH traffic at 30 MPH. Top speed typically isn't a problem but acceleration on cars with wimpy engines is.

    3. Re:nothing new at all needed by Solandri · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Yeah, the problem is getting people to actually buy the high-mileage cars. Here's U.S. car and light truck sales data since 1931. Light trucks are a separate category under CAFE, and don't have to get as high MPG. Consequently they can be built bigger (relatively) and with more powerful engines. From 1931 to the 1970s (when CAFE was first implemented), light truck sales represented about 15%-20% of passenger vehicle sales. Since CAFE was implemented, light truck sales have climbed to over 50%.

      People in general want the big, powerful "cars" and don't care if they get crappy mileage. Forcing the manufacturers to improve mileage isn't going to change that. It makes me think CAFE is partially based on the conspiracy theory that automakers could make 100 MPG cars, but are all in cahoots with oil companies to keep mileage low. That simply isn't the case - consumers are the ones favoring low mileage cars because of the advantages they offer: extra space, extra safety, more power.

      If you want to encourage increased average vehicle mileage, this supply-side market manipulation just doesn't work that well. It needs to be done via demand-side market manipulation. Jack up fuel taxes to make gasoline more expensive. Then people will start to favor fuel economy more over size, safety, and power.

    4. Re:nothing new at all needed by rgmoore · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And acceleration despite a relatively wimpy engine is on major problem that hybrids are designed to tackle. The electric motor isn't enough to drive you very far or very fast on its own, but combining the power of the relatively wimpy internal combustion engine with the power of a relatively wimpy electric motor gives you enough power to merge onto a freeway or go up a steep hill with some confidence. When you don't need that extra power, the relatively wimpy engine is well chosen to give you good fuel economy at highway cruising speed.

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    5. Re:nothing new at all needed by SydShamino · · Score: 5, Informative

      I live in Austin, and my family has a wimpy car (16-year-old Miata with a manual transmission) and newer cars (BMWs with both manual and automatic transmission).

      Getting the Miata up to highway speeds can be a challenge. I have to merge onto Mopac north and south every day, including taking the north-bound Mopac on-ramp from 2222, where the on ramp is a tight loop. I can wind out the transmission but if people don't get over I'm not going to merge successfully. The 645 can merge wherever because I can meet and beat highway speeds to find a safe gap.

      Honestly though, I think the problem with wimpy engine cars is the poor quality of turbochargers. My wife used to have a few Jettas and the turbo lag was atrocious. I recently saw though that there was new turbocharger technology that can "pre-charge" them or somesuch, effectively eliminating the lag. If those become standard, then turbochargers are great and smaller engines will be significantly more successful. (Also, as I see someone else mention, hybrids can solve this easily as well, as electric motors can provide the merge boost too.)

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  2. the easiest way by Picardo85 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Start importing cars made for the european market. We have loads of those cars here.

    1. Re:the easiest way by godrik · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I live in the US now, but I lived in France until a few years ago.
      The market is quite different in ways most people do not see.

      First of all, the weather condition in the US are very variating from a region to the other one. I live in ohio and we get snow about 5 month per year. That's a mid alps type of snow. Having a good traction is important. Most people will get "all seasons tires", which is fairly stupid, but that's what people do.

      Then, the road condition are different. I was reading recently that US policitians prefer opening new roads than fixing existing ones. The road are bad in the US in general compared to your average road in France. Having a car that can take bad roads is important.

      Most people will travel long distance, having a confortable car is important. You frequently hear "I'll drive there, it is only 18 hours driving away". People think whenever they buy a car, that they might travel for days in it.

      There might be issues on familly sizes as well, but I could not find good comparative data on it (beside fertility rate which does not mean too much).

      In France, half the problem of having a car is parking it. Parking is typically not an issue here. So there is less incentive for small cars.

      Importing car from the european market is difficult. European cars are more expensive to buy and to insure than american or japanese cars.

    2. Re:the easiest way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Those are in English gallons, not U.S. gallons.

      When your gallons are 20% larger it's easier to get high MPG numbers.

      The car would get 61 MPG in US gallons. Still great, but not as great as 73 sounds.

  3. Not anti American by AdmV0rl0n · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm a Brit. I understand the tradition, and history of US cars, and that this holds a place for many American people. But your business and political angles don't work well for you here. Most of the US car makers already make fuel efficient engines and models for other parts of the world. I don't know if its parts of the US car industry and some political levels that are messing around - but they should stop.

    At some stage the US will face a fuel hit. It would be much better to have the things lined up than be caught out. Your citizens should not face that having mistakenly bought high fuel consumption models after being decieved or lied to by car makers or political fools. The car is central to life in the US. The fuel munching car has no real future in this.

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    1. Re:Not anti American by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing.

      After they've exhausted all other possibilities.

      - W. Churchill

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      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Not anti American by Sez+Zero · · Score: 5, Informative

      The car is central to life in the US. The fuel munching car has no real future in this.

      Not the car. The truck.

      The Ford F-150 has been the best selling vehicle (car or truck) in the US for the past 35 years. In 2011 here are the ranks (from this source):

      1. Ford F-150 (584,917 sold)
      2. Chevrolet Silverado (415,130)
      3. Toyota Camry (308,510)
      4. Nissan Altima (268,981)
      5. Ford Escape (254,293)
      6. Ford Fusion (248,067)
      7. Ram Pickups (244,763)
      8. Toyota Corolla (240,259)
      9. Honda Accord (235,625)
      10. Chevrolet Cruze (231,732)

      For all the people complaining about Suburbans, Escalades and Expeditions, it is trucks, not SUVs that sell in the US.

      Of the top 10: 1,533,174 cars (51%); 1,244,810 trucks (41%); 254,293 SUVs (8%)

      How many trucks sold in Europe?

  4. Autonomous Cars by Konowl · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The answer to better mpg, traffic shaping, less accidents is - as much as I hate to say it - is autonomous cars.

    They can drive at the best measured MPG zone, they don't get distracted, they have faster response times than human drivers. They don't hit the gas pedal stopping you from merging onto the highway or changing lanes, they don't pass illegally or drive recklessly. Numerous studies have shown that traffic jams are simply caused by people following too closely.

    I don't know for sure, but I really think the next evolution of vehicle transport will be autonomous.

  5. Re:Top Gear already done this... by Rogerborg · · Score: 5, Funny

    Didn't Jeremy Clarkson get this in a Jag...

    No, he got it in a Jaaaaag.

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  6. Re:Ford makes the engin allready. by jo_ham · · Score: 5, Informative

    As far as I know, there aren't ant european diesels than can pass our current emission standards, regardless of the milage.

    This is not true any more. Euro diesels since about 05 and above have exceeded the US emissions standards. The only thing holding it back now is misinformation and the stigma of diesel as something only for big rigs and tractors.

  7. Re:Here's an idea by AlXtreme · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I drive 40+ miles to work each day. I am about to drive 250+ miles to meet with a customer. America is not as densely populated as Europe. Cars are how we travel. This is why we won't buy the small cars that are popular in Europe.

    This is rubbish, the average commute is rather short and comparable on both sides of the pond, and I regularly drive straight through France and Germany. We too drive a lot.

    The real reason why large cars don't sell and small cars do sell in Europe is because of the insane gas prices. When you pay $10/gallon you will change your driving habits or your type of car.

    I just got myself a new car which is quite large for European standards, it goes 40mpg which is decent. But more and more commuters are going for efficient smaller cars (50-60mpg) because of increasing fuel costs, the difference means that the car pays for itself within a few years.

    If fuel costs were the same I'd bet every family here would want an SUV too.

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  8. Re:2000 Honda Insight, Metros/Swifts, Honda CRX HF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Except that the F150 will not have to get 54.5MPG by 2025. It will only need to hit 30MPG by then due to the cluster fuck of regulations that CAFE is. That 30MPG only translates to about 23MPG in real world driving. Part of the problem is that a lot of the CAFE standards are based around the footprint of the vehicle. This provides the car manufacturers with no incentive to give the US small cars since they have to meet much tougher efficiency standards. Go read the link for more information.
    http://jalopnik.com/5948172/how-the-government-killed-fuel-efficient-cars-and-trucks

  9. Re:Ford makes the engin allready. by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative

    Diesel cars are not a panacea.

    1) European (UK) gallons are 20% bigger than US gallons.

    2) European fuel mileage is determined using a different test than U.S. EPA mileage. There's less stop-and-go in the EU tests.

    Consequently it's not unusual for models which hit 50+ MPG in the EU to not even break 40 MPG in the EPA tests. CAFE uses a different test than EPA though. I'm not sure how CAFE mileage stacks up to EU mileage.

    3) Diesel contains about 12%-15% more mass and energy per gallon. Consequently it also puts out about 12%-15% more pollutants per gallon. So unless you're comparing on price or range on same sized fuel tank, you need to tweak diesel's MPG down to draw a fair comparison with gasoline MPG.

    4) When you distil a barrel of oil, some of it will naturally distil into diesel, some into gasoline. It's relatively easy to convert heavy fuels like diesel into gasoline. It's very difficult and expensive to convert light fuels like gasoline and kerosene into diesel. Consequently the most energy-efficient approach is to just take the fractions of diesel and gasoline which comes out naturally from the distillation process. The next-most energy-efficient approach is to favor gasoline.

    So for consumption you want to err on the side which favors gasoline consumption. Diesel is only a cost-effective fuel competitor to gasoline because there are lots of gas-consuming cars. If you lower gasoline consumption below the production from natural distillation, diesel starts to become much more expensive. Whereas if gasoline consumption rises above natural production fractions, you can simply cook diesel a bit to break it down and make more gasoline.